Mittens Alistair Devereaux Bouillabaisse von Romney IV got almost exactly the same support in Iowa’s caucuses that he has had in nationwide polls: 25 percent.
Which is also how much support he got last time around in Iowa — and we know how that turned out.
He should coast to victory Tuesday in relatively liberal New Hampshire. But things may get messy in South Carolina and Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum could push him below the 20 percent mark. Or not.
I don’t toss Ron Paul into that motley melange, because I’m as unsure about the Paul Effect as everybody else seems to be. I can’t see him winning the nomination, and my guess is that his absence from the race would slightly benefit Romney. But I cannot overemphasize the word “guess.”
Anyway, what keeps interrupting the supposedly inevitable Romney coronation is that many Republican voters can’t shake the memory of John McCain. Like Romney, moderate “maverick” McCain benefited from primary season media coverage that bordered on sycophancy. Reporters were thrilled that he kept giving the back of his hand to conservatives — or at least they were until he won the nomination. Then, with Republicans safely denied a conservative to take on Barack Obama, the all-out media offensive to barbecue McCain and ensure Obama’s election began.