The NFL has ascended to the top of the entertainment pyramid. (Well, other than the Star Wars franchise, which is so big it actually is helping sustain the house of cards that is ESPN.)
That said, in the daily pop culture stratosphere, the NFL is the bees’ knees. It’s the alpha and the omega. It’s Jordan + Tiger + Serena + Taylor Swift all rolled into one.
It got to the pinnacle by genius and good fortune – a powerful connection that has shaped almost every industry around us.
The league was fortunate to embrace the gambling craze – first in easily understood point spreads and injury reports; later in the glory and connectivity that is daily fantasy sites – and embraced the voyeuristic violence-craving nature that is growing all around us.
The NFL’s genius was building a system that is built on parity, and one that allows the appearance of competitive balance without the appearance of tanking or total despair. Sure, Bud Light, the official “Co-Cola” of the league, helps convince Browns fans and Titans fans and the rest of the bottom feeders that next year will be better.
And it may, in the short term. It could even mean a playoff push next year because of the unbalanced schedule and the difficulty of maintaining success in a salary cap that depletes depth, which beyond quarterback play and coaching consistency is simply the greatest asset in the league.
Depth sways the power like nothing else, because the aforementioned appearance of balance is just that – an appearance. Nothing alters that appearance of balance – or the ultimate power structure among the league’s elite – like injuries.
Look around: The Patriots were mortal the last two weeks because Tom Brady’s bunch was little more than Greg, Peter and Bobby, and that’s not even mentioning that little weasel Oliver who assuredly killed that show. Now that Brady’s cohorts are starting to come back, the Patriots again are right there with the elite.
And as New England starts to get healthy, Cincinnati’s chances look bleak after quarterback Andy Dalton broke his thumb last Sunday.
Or at least they appear to be.
Power five
1. Panthers. Carolina is the highest scoring team in the league with a top-three defense. How did it get there? Well, there’s a real chance the Panthers will have the league MVP in Cam Newton, who has excelled despite the loss of No. 1 wideout Kelvin Benjamin before the season, and the defensive player of the year in linebacker Luke Kuechly (or maybe cornerback Josh Norman). Since 1971 when the AP started naming a defensive player of the year, the only time that has happened – other than when defensive players won the MVP award – was in 1994 when Steve Young and Deion Sanders pulled it off for the 49ers.
2. Patriots. We think Cam Newton is going to be the MVP, but do we view the MVP race in the major sports on an expectation curve? There is empirical evidence that Mike Trout is the most valuable player in baseball. Same, too, in the NBA with LeBron (before this year, that is, as Steph Curry may have actually moved beyond him). The same applies to almost every year of the last decade to Brady and Peyton Manning. And Aaron Rodgers, too. Those three dudes have won seven of the last eight MVPs, but voters start to look around regardless of the expected greatness of the great ones.
3. Cardinals. There is no longer any debate about who has the best roster 1 through 53 with Dalton on the sideline. It’s the Cardinals, who are second in points per game (less than one point per game behind Carolina) and second in scoring margin at plus-153. Arizona has won seven in a row, and there’s a real push for Carson Palmer to be in the MVP discussion. We’re OK with that, but he does not have a better case than Cam, who has worked miracles throwing to the hodgepodge bunch that relies heavily on Ted Ginn and his stone hands.
4. Broncos. Defensively, Denver is built for the long haul. Offensively, though, the discussion has been muted by success and Peyton Manning’s physical limitations. In truth, we are intrigued by the playoff story line of Manning coming back – because let’s be serious here, Manning is coming back even if he has to play in a walking boot, with an IV strapped to his right guard and with an orderly in the huddle checking his vitals between snaps – and what Denver does at quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been fine, but we’re talking about a short-list GOAT member in Manning. Yes, an injured Manning was unwatchable for most of the season. But if he’s healthy, cue the Willis Reed music.
5. Steelers. The Steelers are currently out of the postseason. They are tied with Kansas City and the New York Jets at 8-5, and Pittsburgh would miss the playoffs on tiebreakers as they currently fall. That said, all the postseason teams are hoping that (a) they stay healthy; (b) they handle their business as best they can to better their postseason position; and (c) Pittsburgh misses the playoffs. Pittsburgh has scored 30 or more points in five straight games and has arguably the most unstoppable play in the league with cat-quick Antonio Brown lining up in the slot and running an option route. We’d rather try to stop erosion, and it would be easier to defend O.J. If the route does not fit, you must acquit.
Powerless five
28. 49ers. Gross. And, like a large group of the folks residing here in the basement, what’s the future of this bunch? The front office has made more miscalculations than a Kardashian in math class. The nine-figure quarterback that was Colin Kaepernick is assuredly going to be cut. The defense is old. In truth, this organization wasted a three-year window in which it had the most talent in the league and a top-10 coach and it has all of one Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Enjoy the rebuild, San Fran. Enjoy the Giants’ chase for the World Series and the Warriors’ greatness and smile, San Francisco.
29. Cowboys. Dallas’ bad fortune – it had a healthy Tony Romo behind center for roughly a quarter of the season – will make it a supremely interesting story line come draft time. As they sit, the Cowboys would have the No. 6 pick overall. Adding high-level talent – especially in this draft, which appears to be deep but lacking in top-level elite star power – will put the Cowboys among the most talented teams in the league.
30. Chargers. Hey, maybe they can move to L.A. and stink in a state-of-the-art facility. Seriously, what do you say about a Chargers team that has not scored a TD since November? Here’s another cautionary tale: As great as Todd Gurley has been as a rookie first-round running back pick for the St. Louis Rams, former Wisconsin star Melvin Gordon has been a painful reminder why teams are skittish about running backs in round one. Gordon’s stats – he is averaging 3.8 yards a carry, has lost four fumbles and has as many TDs as you do – are as painful as the Chargers’ 3-10 record.
31. Browns. The last three games are simply about survival. Is Johnny Football the guy? Is Mike Pettine going to be the coach moving forward? There’s a chance that the answer is no to both of those questions. There’s a possibility that the answer is yes to one of those questions. But it’s looking increasingly likely that there’s no way they both return atop the organizational flow chart.
32. Titans. The Titans currently hold the key to the top spot of the draft. Not sure that’s good or not. Here’s a testament of how far the Titans have to go: After drafting Marcus Mariota, who has been solid for a first-year starter, with the second pick last year, the Titans are in line for the top overall pick this year. After drafting Jameis Winston a pick ahead of Mariota last spring, the Bucs are in the playoff chase.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.