Two weeks from today, Butch Jones will face the throng at SEC Media Days.
It’s the unofficial start of college football season, even if there are another six weeks after that event in Hoover, Ala., before games kick off.
But it’s late June, and the only good sports development in late June is that it eventually becomes July and that means football is around the corner.
This is the beginning of a big season for Jones and his rebuilding Volunteers.
There will be more talent in Knoxville than in any season since Phillip Fulmer had the same job security as Pat Summitt.
Talent is a prerequisite for success in every level of sports, but it’s magnified in the Southeastern Conference. Jones has done a masterful job of restocking the roster. The questions and conversation have moved from surviving to competing to now winning.
The experts in Las Vegas – a group that puts their livelihood on the line with projections and prognostications – believe the Vols are poised to make another stride. Vegas originally set the win total at 7.5, but early betting has already moved that total to 8.
So as we head toward the hand-wringing and cliche-pitching that comprise the SEC Media Days, let’s examine the over/under win totals Vegas set for the rest of the SEC.
Alabama – 9.5.
It seems a touch high considering all the talent the Crimson Tide lost. But then you remember that running back Derrick Henry is back, and the Tide have the best offensive and defensive linemen – and Robinsons – in the league in Cam Robinson and A’Shawn Robinson.
Arkansas – 8.
This is a tough sell considering there are six of the seven West teams with expectations of eight wins or more. The Razorbacks are improved and were salty in the final month of the 2014 regular season. Still, getting to nine wins seems too much.
Auburn – 8.5
Another puzzling number, but here’s a vote for the over, considering Vegas has Auburn listed among the top seven teams to win a national title. New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has a lot of work to do, but the offense could be very special with Jeremy Johnson taking snaps.
Florida – 7
Under. The Gators are pegged as underdogs in seven of their 12 games. The quarterback question marks pale in comparison to the dearth of experienced offensive linemen.
Georgia – 9
Great number here, but we lean under. There is a huge quarterback question – one that apparently was not answered in the spring since Grayson Lambert decided to transfer there from Virginia – and the Bulldogs’ crossover games are against Alabama and at Auburn.
Kentucky – 5.5
Here’s a vote for the over and Mark Stoops getting the Wildcats to the postseason. Louisville looks beatable, and the Wildcats’ other three nonconference games are laughable. UK will be favored over Vanderbilt, so that leaves one upset left, and in an East that is this unprectable, why not?
LSU – 8.5
The quarterback questions – puzzles for most of the teams in the league – linger for the Tigers, and without help there, star runner Leonard Fournette will face a small village of defenders close to the line of scrimmage.
Ole Miss – 8.5
Over. Yes, another team with big questions at quarterback, but the Rebels get Vandy and Florida in the crossover plus a nonconference sweep. Plus, Mississippi has four guys who could be first-round NFL picks next spring.
Mississippi State – 7
Under. It’s hard to replace that much – the Bulldogs lost 15 starters and several experienced reserves – even with Dak Prescott returning at quarterback.
Missouri – 7.5
Go over, if for no other reason than we always expect Missouri to finish like fourth in the East, and except for the injury-riddled 2012, the Tigers always have overachieved.
South Carolina – 6.5
Under. The Gamecocks have a bunch of question marks, including one at quarterback. Plus, South Carolina’s nonconference schedule is the toughest in the league with games against North Carolina, Clemson and Central Florida.
Tennessee – 8
This line started at 7.5 and has moved higher because of a lot of people picking the Vols to go over that. Here’s another bet they go over eight and have a fan base drooling about the possibilities of 2016. The biggest difference beyond the depth is the presence of more real playmakers on each side – and at each level – for the first time in almost a decade.
Texas A&M – 8
Great number, and like the Vols, the Aggies started at 7.5 before going higher. We’ll go over the eight, too, even though 8-4 looks like a nice starting point. There’s no way the defense can be worse, and Kevin Sumlin’s recruiting has been very strong.
Vanderbilt – 3.5
Under. Which means, yes, we’re saying, Vandy is going to lose every SEC game and one of its four nonconference games of home dates against Western Kentcuky and Austin Peay and road games at Houston and Middle Tennessee State. (Yes, at MTSU.)
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com. Read his online column “The 5-at-10” weekdays starting at 10 a.m. at timesfreepress.com.