NEW YORK (AP) – Americans are expected to spend at a slower pace than last year during the crucial winter holidays, weighed down by sluggish wage growth and other factors, according to the nation’s largest retail industry trade group.
The National Retail Federation, based in Washington, D.C., predicts holiday spending will be up 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion, slower than the 4.1 percent increase during last year’s November-December period.
That would mark the first slowdown since 2011 when holiday sales were up 4.6 percent, down from 5.2 percent in 2010. During that time, retailers were not only hurt by high unemployment but a mild winter that forced stores to heavily discount coats, sweaters and other cold-weather items more than expected.
The dollar figure excludes sales from autos, gas and restaurants but includes online spending. The group estimates that online spending should be up 6 percent to 8 percent for the two-month period to as much as $105 billion. That would be in line with the 5.8 percent increase over last year’s holiday season.
Still, the holiday sales estimate is much higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. But the growth has been choppy since the deep downturn of 2008 when holiday sales fell 4.6 percent from the previous year.