Fab 4 (times 2) picks
We talked last week about finding consistent dancing partners. We still have a few. Every Duke game has gone under the total this season. Central Florida is 0-6 straight up and against the number. Duke is off this week, but Central Florida is in action (if you can call it that).
Before we get to the picks, we need to offer another lesson about the rides and falls of weekend college football entertainment hunting.
OK, we have covered the rules of consistency. If you find a trait or a team you trust, you have to ride it.
We also have covered the “hey, that line looks too good to be true” and how that almost always is too good to be true.
Today, let’s talk about trains. No, not the locomotives, and no, not the second mode of transportation of the underrated “Planes, Trains and Automobiles” movie featuring Steve Martin and John Candy.
Trains in entertainment hunting are picks that everyone likes. Everyone. Everyone you talk to is feeling good about it. Do you know why casinos build monster buildings and offer filet mignon and lobster dinners for $8.99? Want to know why your local entertainment broker has a nicer car than you and the rest of us hunters?
Come closer. It’s because trains almost always crash. We offer that this weekend because there feels like a couple of teams have garnered a ton of public support and developed a train-level feel. The first is Michigan. The second one is Texas A&M. Could those games hit? Sure, they could. But the train whistle seems to be growing, so we are going to avoid each game.
On to the picks, and yes, we may have overflowed the boat. Let’s call it the Fab 4 (times 2) picks this week.
Temple minus-20 over Central Florida. Are we crazy? Depends on whom you ask. Are we loyal? Almost to a fault. We are going against a Central Florida team that feels like it has quit until the Knights give us a reason not to. How’s that for expert analysis?
San Jose State minus-3 over San Diego State. Buy the half of course, and enjoy. In a matchup of state schools that are not really states, always go with the team with the best offensive player. In this case that would be SJS’s star running back Tyler Ervin, who is second in the country with 874 rushing yards. He trails only some fellow named Leonard Fournette, who is pretty good at tackle football.
Air Force minus-3 at Colorado State. Another game on the magic number that requires buying the hook. Air Force has an offense that travels and a coaching staff that thrives in moments like this. Plus, the Falcons’ two losses are against much better competition – Michigan State and Navy – than Colorado State.
Georgia-Missouri under 46. Two offenses looking for stability and fighting through large holes in their initial plans. Missouri is without its original starting quarterback, Maty Mauk, who is dropping Twitter bombs on the current struggles of the Tigers offense. The shell-shocked Bulldogs are without Nick Chubb, and UGA would be tickled with a 20-10 win Saturday.
South Carolina-Vanderbilt under the 44. Yes, please. Vandy has a legit defense that has held all of its opponents in check for the most part. South Carolina has dealt with a season’s worth of turmoil and upheaval in one week. This feels like a 14-10 game one way or the other, right?
BYU minus-6.5 over Cincinnati. Cincy has not played since upsetting Miami on an emotional Thursday night last week. The Bearcats’ layoff – and spending 10 days hearing how good they are – is a bad thing. Cincy was able to use Miami’s desperation and emotion to its advantage. BYU is neither desperate nor emotional, and laying less than a TD at home – where the elevation is worth at least three points – seems like a nice price.
Western Kentucky minus-33 over North Texas. Simply put, North Texas is the worst football team in the country. It fired its coach after getting thumped by FCS member Portland State last Saturday on homecoming. Now it plays a Western Kentucky team that has scored 35 or more in its last five and is averaging more than 435 passing yards per game. This one screams 59-3, and you’re welcome.
Georgia Tech minus-3 over Pittsburgh. One of those “that line can’t be right” games where we are trusting that Vegas is looking to trap the public. Pitt is 4-1 and Tech has lost its last four games. Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson needs this, and we believe his team will respond. (Buy the half to be safe, though.)
Last week against the spread: 4-2 (66.7 percent)
This season against the spread: 22-12 (64.7 percent)
*****
Items of interest in the SEC
Big week around the league, and the fallout from Thursday’s big game between Auburn and Kentucky will be telling.
1. Alabama back in national contention. A win Saturday at College Station, Texas, would spring Alabama right back into the national championship picture. A loss to Texas A&M almost certainly would end the Tide’s playoff hopes. An Aggies win would give them the inside track to the SEC West and the secret password for the front gate at Hogwarts. We may have made up that last part. Still, this would be a monster win for coach Kevin Sumlin, who has struggled against good teams at home.
2. Classic matchups and long memories. There are a multitude of interesting story lines in the Alabama-Texas A&M game. There’s the young Aggies quarterbacks against the best defensive line this side of the Denver Broncos. There’s the erratic Alabama secondary against arguably the most-star-studded receiving corps in the country. There’s the top-five 2017 NFL draft battle between Tide left tackle Cam Robinson and Aggies defensive end Myles Garrett. But the one that has our interest piqued the most is Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis against Tide offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. Remember that when Kiffin got the job at Tennessee, he handed Chavis his walking papers from his longtime spot as the Vols’ defensive coordinator. And while you may or may not remember that, here’s betting Chavis has not forgotten it.
3. Harris vs. Harris. Leonard Fournette is the headliner for LSU. That’s as it should be since dude is about two weeks from making this the most-lopsided Heisman vote ever. But how much does Fournette’s greatness cover the unknown abilities of LSU quarterback Brandon Harris? On the other side, the Florida Gators’ surprising rise has been fueled by a great defense and Will Grier’s moxie. The Gators defense will be at Death Valley come Saturday night trying to make LSU’s Harris beat them. Grier won’t be there, however, after being suspended for PEDs. Enter Treon Harris, and while quarterbacks always make a big difference, which Harris handles the moment better will deliver a monster win for his unbeaten team.
4. Shawn Elliott to the main stage. Steve Spurrier resigned this week. You may have heard about it; it was in most of the papers. Elliott, the South Carolina co-offensive coordinator, was named the Gamecocks’ interim coach, and he has his eyes on keeping it. Vandy comes calling this week, and if Mr. Elliott wants a long-term future as the CEO of South Carolina football, this is a must-win. Period.
5. Georgia picking up the pieces. If you know a Bulldogs fan, then you know how hard Tennessee’s rally hurt them last week. The replays – both on the TV and in their minds – have not helped. So it goes, and while the Vols get an off week to enjoy the moment, Georgia has to quickly turn the page and get ready for Missouri. We’ll see how well coach Mark Richt can redirect his troups, who, barring a lot of help, had most of their goals shattered in the span of eight days.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.