Fab 4 picks
OK, the bowl games are finicky. We know this.
The first round has proved to be exactly that.
We went 2-3 in our first bowl offering, taking a tough back-door loss last night in the Poinsettia Bowl. (Side question: How do you pronounce the name of this bowl? Poin-set-ah or Poin-sett-e-ah with the extra syllable? Side question, II: Why do we stay with the traditional “you say tomato, I say ta-MAH-toe” version of that. There are much better options, right? How about pecan? Do you go PEE-can or pe-KAHN?)
Where were we?
Oh yeah.
It’s been a weird year in the picks. We have only had three losing weeks all year. counting last week. Yes, one of them was a bank-breaking 1-5, which is somewhere between Ishtar and Caddyshack 2 on the entertainment scale. But most of the weeks have been close to 3-2 number, and that played out in the percentages. Here are the stats so far this year for the various forms of picks we have trotted out in this space this year:
College regular season: 49-34 (59 percent)
NFL picks: 6-2 (75 percent)
Round 1 of the bowls: 2-3 (40 percent)
We need to work on the last one, right?
So here’s an interesting trend so far: The under has cashed in seven of eight bowls so far. What does that tell us? Could be the weather in a couple – be it rain or cold – and it could be offensive motivation in others. So there’s that.
Old Dominion minus-3 over Eastern Michigan. Buy the half here to prevent a backdoor beat, but the Monarchs closed the season on a 5-0 run and were 4-0-1 against the number in that stretch. Does that carryover? We think so because we believe ODU has improved through the course of 2016. It is also of note that ODU has rolled against similar rosters – its three losses are to NC State, App State and Western Kentucky.
Mississippi State minus-13.5 over Miami (Ohio). We believe this is going to be the most one-sided bowl game of the postseason. Mississippi State is more talented at every position and we think Nick Fitzgerald is going to post a monster stat line. Seriously, this one feels like 49-7.
Minnesota-Washington State over the 61.The line has more than doubled to WSU minus-10.5 after all the protest talk and what that will mean. Here’s a thought about that: It will mean Minnesota is without its best cover corner and that’s no es bueno when facing the Mike Leach passing game. The only way this one doesn’t go over is if Minnesota completely phones it in and the final is 49-10, because WSU is going to score.
La. Tech-Navy over 65. Navy was a scoring machine before quarterback Will Worth injured his foot. La. Tech has been a scoring machine all year. Now – research alert, don’t get spoiled – know this, La. Tech’s top two middle linebackers – Big Five transfers Jordan Harris and Dalton Santos – are not going to play because of academic issues. Plus, you have to believe the extra time to adjust with a new quarterback will give the Navy offense a boost. This one clears the total by halftime.
Vandy-NC State over 43.5. You’re thinking, “Wow, Vandy and the over? Who knew?” And that’s OK. Vandy’s defense is stout, and linebacker Zach Cunningham is the league’s best defensive player not in Tuscaloosa. But the ‘Dores ability to throw it deep has been the hallmark to the late-season push. It continues in the postseason, too.
Utah minus-7 over Indiana. The Utes finished the season with back-to-back losses, but the talent divide here is very one-sided. Remember, Utah was a playoff contender for the first half of the season. The affordable price here likely stems from what kind of motivation the Utes will have after losing its last two – including a heart-breaking loss to Oregon – and costing themselves a shot at the Pac-12 title game. We’ll err on the side of Kyle Whittingham in that regard and buy the half for safe measure.
Pittsburg minus-5.5 over Northwestern. Pittsburgh lost its OC when Matt Canada flew south to LSU, but this may be one of the most difficult offenses to stop among the pre-New Year’s bowls. Nathan Peterman has been aces at QB. James Connor is a load at running back. Pitt is pretty salty friends.
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More nonsense in the Mixon mess
Bob Stoops met with the media Wednesday and spoke of the Joe Mixon punching video.
Stoops started the statement with some of his rationale about the decision in 2014 to let Mixon stay on the Oklahoma football after punching a woman in the face.
“Fault me if believing that an 18-year-old without prior violence situation whatsoever and in altercation had the wrong and horrible response that he did, that he might have an opportunity moving forward to redeem himself, improve from it, grow from it and someday possibly be forgiven,” Stoops told reporters Wednesday.
“That was the intention, if he chose to come back, and that’s what we had hoped for.”
OK. And a year-long suspension is not a light punishment by any means for a college football player. (But to be fair, that is the same punishment Will Grier got for using a banned substance from GNC for crying out loud.)
In truth we would have had gained some respect for Stoops if he had stopped there. If he had punctuated that statement and then went into how Mixon has improved, and the emotional role of a college football coach in a player’s life. (The story of Sterling Shepard would have been a nice detail to add in there, as well. Give the good and the bad of the connection you have to players you recruit.)
But then Stoops stooped, reaching for the Goodall double-talk answer.
After accepting blame and in some ways effectively deflecting it in his opening statements, Stoops offered, “two-and-a-half years later it’s fair to say it [the punishment] isn’t enough.” He then said that if it happened today Mixon would be dismissed.
He said that change is how society views domestic assault today.
That’s BS – Bull Stoops? – Coach.
Did we really view punching a woman in the face and knocking her out 29 months ago as a casual offense? But today, we know it’s serious?
No way. No bleeping way. Mixon delivered the haymaker in 2014 not 1814 for Pete’s sake.
The only difference now is that we all have seen the brutality Stoops and the powers that be at OU watched two years ago. The lack of outrage then falls on us too. What did we expect a college football player punching a woman to look like, a tickle fight?
Again, this one assault – as bad as it is – is not the biggest indictment on Stoops and his program. Oklahoma has a growing and continuing trend of ignoring violence against women by its football players in multiple cases.
And amazingly, the Grayson Allen tripping incident has gotten more play this morning on ESPN than Stoops’ news conference, which also included the very deep and pertinent question about whether there must be a zero tolerance policy on issues like this.
For the most part zero-tolerance policies are a scary proposition because all situations come with layers and circumstance.
But not all of them come with video.
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UTC updates
Gang, if you are a UTC fan and not following Mean Gene Henley on the Twitter – @genehenleytfp – then you are missing out.
Mean Gene is updating the ongoing staff fulfillment of Coach Tom Arth’s football team.
Then there was the hoops run Wednesday as Matt McCall’s bunch handled Jacksonville State. (Side note: The line on that game was 15.5; UTC won by 16. Cashing entertainment, even by the slimmest of margins, is still very entertaining.
If all of this seems old hat to you, then you likely already follow Mean Gene. If not, well now you know, and as NBC used to tell us on Saturday mornings, the more you know, the more you know.
Somewhere Mr. Belding smiles.
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This and that
– Duke announced this morning that Grayson Allen has been suspended indefinitely for his third tripping incident against opponents. Allen is a serial tripper who is a dirty player on the basketball court. OK. (That said, college basketball is much more fun Duke has a white dude that everyone really hates, right?)
– Thought this was fun and interesting to see the “7 hottest takes of 2016” from USA Today. No. 1 was Hope Solo’s rant about Sweden playing cowardly soccer.
– Tonight’s NFL game is the final ‘Color Rush’ act of the season. Here’s what the unit will look like with Philadelphia in all black and the New York Giants in throwback 1980s all white.
– Maybe Odell Beckham Jr. had a point when he said he would have been fined for doing what Ezekiel Elliott did when he jumped into the Salvation Army bucket after a TD. Here ODJ says he was fined for wearing cleats in honor of Craig Sager, who recently died.
– Nice win for Louisville over UK on Wednesday night. Competitive game, even if it not was always the most efficient of games.
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Today’s question
OK, we’re going to ask for some self-awareness.
What was your worst hottest sports take of 2016 – the passionate position you took that turned out to be junk?
Also, we are close to Christmas.
Rushmore favorite Christmas tunes.
(And if you are looking for bowl standings, check back this afternoon. And if you have a mailbag question, fire away.)