Fab 4 picks
This may be the worst weekend in college football history.
Seriously.
Pick your favorite game. We’ll wait.
And we’re still all in right? (Don’t look at the calendar. Don’t. This is the penultimate weekend of the regular season. Tear.)
Here’s the thing this week: Who is looking ahead to rivalry weekend? Who wants to finish strong? Who is finishing out the string? This may be the week in the regular season that most resembles bowl games in terms of trying to determine motivation.
And as we all know, more motivation = entertainment more times than not.
UTC-South Carolina under 80. This line looks so crazy that it seems improbable. Heck, it seems impossible. As always, we are using the VegasInsider.com page for our numbers. But this number is so crazy that for the first time in Fab 4 picks history, here’s the link to the VegasInsider page for the Mocs that, as of 8:07 this morning, still had UTC +30.5 and the total at 80. Breaking that total down the final would have to be 60-21 to get over. Do you see Will Muschamp scoring 60 with Clemson next week? Do you see UTC’s up-and-down offense getting three TDs against an SEC defense? You may not be able to find this one in the 423. If you find it online, well, these are the type of entertainment risks that can make Christmas golden. Think we should
Navy minus-5 over Tulsa. Tulsa allows 234 per outing on the ground. Read that again. Each team is 2-8 and playing out the string, right? Well, which of these teams when you start checking motivation boxes, is at home? (Navy). Which team do you never expect to phone it in? (Navy.) Which team has next week off before the only game of the season that really matters so there is still a lot to play for? (Navy.) Yes please.
Wake Forest plus-7 over Pittsburgh. The setting here completely favors every thing involving the Demon Deacons, and know this Pitt is not the same team on the road. The Panthers are 5-1 in Pittsburgh and 1-3 away from it. Wake’s dangerous wide receivers – who tormented NC State last week – will make enough plays in what should be a field goal game either way. (And simple math tells us if it’s a field goal game either way, getting seven – and buying the half of course – equals entertainment.
THE Ohio State minus-14 over Maryland. This is one of the motivation games we mentioned. Maryland has endured more heartache than any team should. THE Ohio State has suffered a lot of self-inflicted distraction and controversy. The latest series of stories – allegations of former assistant and all around jack-wagon of mega proportions Zack Smith using racial slurs – have been categorically denied by administrators, coaches and players. Plus, THE Ohio State is still on the fringe of playoff contention despite all of that. Now comes a trip to Maryland to play in front of what will be a crowd that likely will feature more empty seats than full ones. Man, this really feels like three big plays early, the ball starts rolling and its 49-10 THE Ohio State, right? (We’d buy the hook to protect against the backdoor cover.)
UNLV-Hawaii over 69. Two teams that we flirted with early in the season. (Side note: We never really became committed to a team this year. We got on the anti-Louisville bandwagon more on that in a moment in time for some entertainment, and had a fair amount of success with Syracuse at times this year too.) Here’s the thing. Hawaii can still sling it. Hawaii has Cole McDonald at QB and he has thrown for more than 310 yards per and 32 TDs in 10 games. UNLV’s injury chart lists four DBs out for Saturday. UNLV’s injury chart also shows Armani Rogers, a four-star running QB as probable, and Hawaii’e best defensive player – linebacker Jahlani Tavai – is listed as out. To spin the quote from our man Clubber Lang in Rocky III when asked about a prediction: “Points.”
NC State minus-15 over Louisville. The Wolfpack have had 10 days to think about the floater they left on Senior Day against Wake. Louisville is the worst Power 5 team in the country, has fired its head coach and is 1-9 against the spread this year. Hey, ride her until she bucks you, right? While we are here, the two best teams this year in terms of covering your entertainment investment have been Utah State and Washington State. Each is 9-1 against the number. After Louisville’s awful 1-9 mark, there are five teams tied with 2-8 marks against the spread: New Mexico State, Washington, Wisconsin, San Diego State and TCU.
Boston College minus-1 over FSU. This line is a little eye-popping, right? Well, Vegas is unsure about whether BC’s two best offensive players – QB Anthony Brown and RB A.J. Dillon – will play this week after getting banged up against Clemson. Here’s betting that they will, and even if they do not, BC has been without each before. Here’s the other thing: FSU has been manhandled the last three weeks, and this side of Clemson, Steve Addazzio’s Eagles are arguably the second-most physical team in the ACC.
Last week: 4-1-1 against the spread (75 percent)
This season: 43-27-2 against the spread (61.1 percent)
Items of interest
Who will struggle to finish that cupcake? Look around the SEC. It’s bad, and the conversation about the SEC needing to play nine conference games like the majority of the Power 5 conferences. A trend that started all the way back in 2006 with some dude named Urban Liar when Florida scheduled Western Carolina in the next-to-last game of the season. (Florida 62, Western Carolina bagel, as some cat named Tebow went 10-of-12 for two scores.) Now it dominates the Saturday before Thanksgiving across the league. We think most of the SEC will handle their BID-ness. If we had to find a team that is going to struggle, well, this hardly seems like a shocker, but this is such a place that Auburn limits to a 29-17 win that feels as blah-tastic as the weather this week. (We’re not taking Liberty plus-27 because, man, there’s still a decided talent gap here, and Auburn has some freshmen who a) are wicked fast and b) may actually, you know, be fired up to play.) Side question: Which projected first-round quarterback before the season – Oregon’s Justin Herbert or Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham – has cost himself the most coin this fall? Discuss.
Style points, who wants them? UCF is a seven-point favorite over Cincinnati in really the last chance UCF has to impress the committee. And while we are here, after Fresno’s loss last week, this game means millions and a possible New Year’s Day bowl date for the Bearcats. We listed above that we think THE Ohio State is going to try to grab some style points. We think Michigan may as well against Indiana. And style points be danged when
Syracuse vs. Notre Dame. Not since Ernie Davis in “The Express” has a Syracuse football team carried more of the nation’s emotional energy into a football game. The Orange appear to be the last best hope for someone to topple the unbeaten Irish and open the door into the playoff for others. And Dino Babers has been aces. Side note: Babers will be a hot name depending on the coaching jobs that come open this offseason. Want to know another one: Cal’s Justin Wilcox, the former UT DC who has been aces with the Bears. (Side note: We almost gave out the Golden Bears as a pick this week, but Stanford may be starting to get healthy.)
Tennessee. Raise your hand if you had UT-Missouri as the 3:30 game before the season. (If you have your hand up, stop reading and go buy a lottery ticket. Side question: For the lottery players of the numbers, are you a regular numbers player or a quick-pick player? Why? Discuss.) The Vols have been noticeably improved since the second half of the Alabama game, and are one win from punching their bowl ticket. If that comes this week against arguably the nation’s top-ranked draftable QB, well, kudos Jeremy Pruitt, you would have certainly exceeded my expectations.
The quite rivalry game that used to be a monster. Did you know that USC and UCLA play this week? Yeah, me neither. OK, of the big time hires, who has been the best? Chip Kelly at UCLA is 2-8. Chad Morris at Arkansas is 2-8. Willie Taggert at FSU is 4-6. Scott Frost at Nebraska is 3-7. If we side with Dan Mullen, who is 7-3 at Florida, would be the job Pruitt has done in Knoxville rank as the next best on that list of first-year dudes?
College football gambling talk from a paid expert
OK, we like to give picks. We’ve done pretty well at it through the years.
But Ed Salmon, the bigwig at the Westgate Sports Book in Vegas, is a paid pro’s pro. He’s a wide guy’s wise guy, without all the Goodfella references.
He also joined a podcast with Stanford Steve and The Bear and shared some interesting thoughts about the power polls and Vegas lines on some the best teams in college football.
If the playoff started tomorrow with the teams we have in the top four, Salmon has Alabama minus-12.5 vs. Michigan and Clemson minus-14 vs. Notre Dame on neutral fields. Salmon was asked about UCF, and he had Alabama minus-27 over UCF, and said it likely would go higher.
If the pairings hold true through the last weeks of the regular season, Salmon said LSU would be minus-7 over UCF if they play in a New Year’s Bowl. (at least, and it could go to double digits depending on how UCF fares against a physical Cincinnati team.)
Salmon had Notre Dame rated No. 7 in his power poll behind Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, Georgia and LSU.
He had Washington State at 17, right there with Iowa State, Texas and Texas A&M and called the Pac-12 a ‘fraudulent conferece.’
He said when Tua wins the Heisman, Vegas is going to get drilled, and that Alabama is now -250 to win the whole thing, which means that you have to bet $250 to win $100.
Wow. Thought it was interesting.
This and that
– LeBron passed Wilt on the scoring list Wednesday night. Spy, you want to take this one?
– Speaking of the NBA, man the emotional unrest at Golden State seems like there’s a lot of fire with that smoke, no? Here’s a story that says the Warriors players are not on board with trying to recruit Kevin Durant to stay. Uh, guys, he’s only the two-time NBA Finals MVP, and we’re not entirely sure you beat LeBron both of those times if you don’t have KD.
– Kudos to baseball voters for rightly going with Jacob deGrom as the NL Cy Young winner. Tampa’s Blake Snell won the AL award.
– Pretty good Thursday night NFL game tonight with Green Bay and Seattle.
Today’s questions
Gang, remember the mailbag. We have a spot or two open.
Man, a blast from the past, but the Beastie Boys released “Licensed to Ill” on this day in 1986. Game-changer and became the first No. 1 rap album on the Billboard charts. It still holds up amazingly well, too.
It’s also National Clean out the fridge day.
Today also is national raisin bran day. Foe. Big time.
Rushmore of least favorite cereals. Go.