Fab 4 picks
Condensed week means crazy adjustments.
Like Will Healy pulling up a chair on Press Row on a Tuesday. (Hear it here. He is legit, and as someone asked on a True or False Tuesday, I believe the current Charlotte coach will be at a Power Five job sooner rather than later.)
Like College Football Hall of Famers Jim Donnan on a Wednesday (as in today) in the 5 p.m. hour.
Like our picks – NFL and college – moving up.
Hey, as Ron Burgundy says, “When in Rome.” You know what, when we started crushing our Fab 4 picks was when picked up a theme. No-Pay November, and we started fast last night as the Fighting’ Akron Arths returned to form with a one-sided loss to Ohio.
(Side note: There’s a real argument to be made that Akron was the worst FBS team in the modern era. If you are scoring at home – or if you are all by yourself – Akron finished bagel-and-12, 1-11 against the spread. The Zips had two games – a 17-20 loss at Miami-Ohio and a 29-37 loss to UMass – that were decided by single digits. The average numbers put Akron at a negative-25.8 per game, which is third worst, behind Bowling Green, which beat Akron 35-6, and UMass. If Champ Kind needed to describe the run of disaster, it would have to be “Whammy.”)
So, let’s get to the picks, right? Right.
Ole Miss plus-2.5 over Mississippi State. Yes, I’d wait a touch on this one and see if you can get it to that wonderful, round 3 that we all treasure, but I truly believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, MSU is playing for a bowl spot, and yes, MSU is at the Cowbell Castle. (Yes, that’s the More Cowbell scene from SNL, and not Ron Burgundy, but it’s pretty close, right?) John Rhys Plumlee is the best athlete on the field, will top the 1,000-yard mark for the season in this one (despite only playing in eight games) and be a handful for a MSU bunch that has unknowns at QB and head coach, which is a wee bit troubling.
Charlotte minus-9 at Old Dominion. Yes, we are partial to Coach Healy. But this one is going to be like Brick in the News Team battle – “I think Brick killed a guy with a trident” – for a lot of reasons. The 49ers are playing to improve their bowl stock on their first ever postseason trip; the 1-10 Monarchs are playing out the string.
Arkansas State minus-11 at South Alabama. Yes we are riding a couple of road favorites laying a TD. Want to know what else those games have in common? The home teams (USA and ODU) are each 1-10 and the crowds will be, shall we say, scattered. Which could lead to some lackluster showings. How’s this for a stat convergence? USA has allowed more than 28 points in every FBS game it has played. In its eight games (6-2) since its 55-0 loss to Georgia, Arkansas State has scored 28 or more seven times. It’s science.
Wake Forest minus-4 over Syracuse. With the lone exception of a house call over Duke 10 days ago, the Orange have been awful. And cash-tastic. In its last six, Syracuse is 1-5 overall and 1-5 against the number. Did you know Wake could get to nine wins if it wins at the Carrier Dome (dome stadium, away from the elements)? Yes, that escalated quickly.
Tennessee minus-21 over Vandy. Buy the half for a little back-door insurance, but I think the Vols want a big finish, and the ‘Dores’ DBs have little answer for that collection of NFL talent on the perimeter for the Vols. I think UT names its number and, with the last couple of years of frustration against Vandy, I think Pruitt and Co. will name a very large number.
Boise State minus-13 over Colorado State. As Paschall likes to call them, The Fighting’ Bobos (CSU coach Mike Bobo, the former UGA quarterback and OC, is a friend of my Press Row cohost) have spiraled. Last week was a last gasp, and the CSU Bobos could not topple a Wyoming offense that is dreadfully one-dimensional. Now comes a Boise bunch who are going to go Jack Black on Bobo’s Baxter. “Now this is happening Broceph.” (Side note: The committee should be sending a thank-you note to BYU, which pulled off a 28-25 upset over Boise State in October, and will be the Broncos’ only loss. Remember BSU is 20th in the CFP committee poll, just two spots behind Memphis and one behind Cincinnati – and those teams play this week – in a race to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. That is something to play for and impressive wins are needed to impress the committee.) Also of note, and this applies to almost every locale, check the weather. It’s going to be cold in Fort Collins over the weekend – Boise is used to cold – and snow is possible on Friday. Those details can be game changers for a lot of other teams.
LSU-Texas A&M over 62. Lots at stake here. Two defenses that are susceptible to hot QBs. This is a season-making game for the Aggies, potentially, and a season-changing game for the Tigers, who lost this matchup in a million overtimes last season. Can’t you see this being like 31-24 at halftime?
Last week: 9-3 with MACtion against the spread (75 percent)
This week: 1-0 (War Arths) against the spread (you know that percent)
This season: 54-43-2 against the spread (55.7 percent)