Virginia governor’s races get outsized coverage. They take place a year after presidential elections, often making them the only big competitive contest in the country. And a lot of political reporters are based around Washington.
This time, though, the result really may be a portent. There are reasons for thinking that Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory is bad news for Democrats nationally.
First, it suggests that a standard Democratic line of attack is a dud. Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic candidate and a former governor, centered his campaign on the awfulness of former President Donald Trump. He called his opponent “Trumpkin.” The fact that Trump lost the state by 10 percentage points last year made McAuliffe’s strategy attractive. No state’s Republican party saw bigger losses in the state legislature under Trump than Virginia’s did.
Youngkin had to get just enough distance from Trump to reassure voters who disliked the ex-president while not alienating his fans – or Trump himself. But he found that ground. A decisive number of Virginians who picked President Joe Biden over Trump went with Youngkin. Thus, Youngkin was able to keep most of Trump’s voters while winning back some of the people who fled the Republican party because of him.
Democrats in other states may have better luck with McAuliffe’s strategy if they are running against Republicans who are less deft at, or intent on, separating themselves from Trump. But a lot of other states – including several with Senate races next year – are also less hostile to Trump than Virginia is.