I spent much of my professional life deployed forward in the Arabian Gulf and encountered Iranian naval forces there on many occasions. They were uniformly unprofessional and confrontational. They are cowardly in the face of opposing military forces, but dangerous and unpredictable.
As I watch the situation in Gaza escalate, I fear the chances of Iran intervening by unleashing the 130,000 missiles Hezbollah has been storing to the north of Israel rising. As world opinion begins to turn against Israel in the wake of inevitable civilian casualties in Gaza, Iran is becoming more emboldened.
They are conducting probing attacks from the north, trying to assess if the Israelis have kept a strategic reserve sufficient to deal with a second front emanating from Lebanon. They have also conducted around 20 proxy attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, likewise, seeking to determine what the U.S. response might look like. Iran-backed Houthi rebels recently launched missiles from the southern Arabian peninsula — which were shot down by an American destroyer. They have engaged in cyberattacks targeting Israel and others in the region. Clearly Iran is testing the waters to see if an escalation would be effective.
Iran is increasingly likely to push Israel and the U.S., and I’d say the chances of a serious attack by Iran have risen uncomfortably high, to more than 20%. It could close the Strait of Hormuz, spike oil prices, and move forward in unpredictable ways, especially with two U.S. carrier strike groups, multiple Air Force attack aircraft squadrons, and an expeditionary Marine strike group on station today. Direct combat is not out of the question.
If Iran decides to lash out either through more proxy activity — notably from Hezbollah — or even directly, President Joe Biden will be receiving a detailed list of options to take in response. I’ve been part of preparing such lists over the years.