Inflation is slowing, turkey prices are dropping and yet, somehow, Thanksgiving dinners will still cost more than they did last year.
“Don’t expect tremendous savings,” a new report from Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute warns, noting that food-at-home prices are still up 2.4% compared with last October. “This year’s celebration will not be less expensive.”
Still, not all Thanksgiving mainstays are going to cost more, and the price of the traditional roasted-turkey centerpiece is falling. Retail prices for whole fresh turkeys were down 9% the week of Oct. 23, when the report was written, but have dropped even more since then, down 13% as of Oct. 30, said Michael Swanson, the institute’s chief agricultural economist. “We expect those prices to fall even more.”
While turkey prices are falling, consumers aren’t getting the full benefit of the lower price tag retailers are seeing: Wholesale prices are down 30%, according to the report. “The retailer has more expenses,” said Swanson, one of the report’s authors, citing high labor costs as an example. Swanson also pointed out that low prices on turkeys hurt the farmers who raise them.
Not everyone is so optimistic on the cost of gobblers. Lower turkey stocks as a result of avian flu could hurt supply and support prices, said Justin Barlup, an analyst at Bloomberg’s Green Markets.