Another special election, another strong Democratic showing, another warning for the fragile House Republican majority that a historical pattern is about to repeat itself.
Republican Matt Van Epps won Tuesday’s special Tennessee election, but the results marked the fifth time in 2025 special congressional contests that the Democrats far outperformed their 2024 showings.
It was the latest sign that the GOP’s narrow House majority is in significant danger next November.
It’s the same pattern — Democratic over-performance and a decline in the Republican vote — evident last month in New Jersey and Virginia.
A similar trend foreshadowed past mid-term congressional takeovers by the party that had lost the prior presidential election — the Democrats in 2005-06, the Republicans in 2009-10, and the Democrats in 2017-18.