President Donald Trump has wisely muted his boasts of ending the Ukraine war in a day. His peacemaking energies might be better diverted to another intractable conflict: the U.S. standoff with Iran.
Iran, the main U.S. adversary in the Middle East, is weaker than it’s been in decades. A high inflation rate, a plummeting currency, capital outflows and lack of investment have hollowed out the economy. A brutal crackdown on protesters has enraged ordinary citizens.
Most importantly, Israel has literally blown up Tehran’s strategy of using proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah as a first line of defense. Israeli strikes have dismantled key air defenses, exposing critical installations to attack.
Some in Trump’s orbit argue that the U.S. and Israel should seize this opportunity to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and possibly topple the regime. They’re correct that Iran has enough fissile material to make a dozen bombs already and growing incentive to weaponize it.
Yet the arguments against military action remain as strong as ever. A strike would be hugely complex and challenging. Even stripped of defenses, facilities buried deep underground will be hard to destroy. Any gains would be temporary, while an attack is as likely to spur Iranians to rally around the government as to overthrow it. Whatever regime emerges could well be even more radical and obdurate.