After widespread defeats in the off-year elections, Republicans should realize they made a bad bet by following President Donald Trump’s lead on mid-decade redistricting.
Desperate not to lose the House, the president sought to rig the game. He pressured legislatures in red states to create new Republican-leaning districts, and lawmakers duly redrew their maps. That weakened some safe red seats, but the GOP assumed it would hurt Democrats more.
The election results demonstrate the folly of Trump’s gamble.
Trump’s 2024 coalition is crumbling. To win in less-red districts, the party will need all the voters Trump pulled together for his 1.5 percentage point victory — young men, Latino voters and his MAGA base. But exit polls show that in both Virginia and New Jersey, men and Latino voters abandoned the GOP in massive numbers.
In New Jersey, 68% of Latino voters broke for Democrat Mikie Sherrill. So did 56% of men under 30. In Virginia, 67% of Latino voters went for Democrat Abigail Spanberger. So did 57% of men under 30. Many of these voted for Trump last year. Exit polls show both won 7% of Trump’s 2024 voters, with Sherrill getting a whopping 18% of Trump’s Hispanic support.