As we approach the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, America is in a pretty foul mood, and I understand why. For starters, Washington is broken, prices are high and rising and AI is scaring the stuffing out of people.
Understanding, however, is not synonymous with agreement. In other words, some complaints about America in 2026 have more empirical weight than others.
Crime may be too high, but it’s been going down for a while. Actually, let’s start there because crime is a good example of how perceptions don’t necessarily reflect reality.
Since 2000, writes Gallup’s polling guru Frank Newport, “Americans’ views of the seriousness of crime nationwide … have averaged 43 percentage points higher than their views of local crime.” People tend to think crime is much worse wherever they don’t live. Although nearly half of Americans think crime is a very serious issue in America, only about one in 10 think it’s a big deal in their cities and towns.
But the “where” is often less of an issue than the “when.” I was a little kid in New York City a half-century ago during the celebration of the bicentennial. Crime there and then was much worse than today. The homicide rate was five times higher. In 1976, the Big Apple, with a million fewer people, saw 1,622 murders (slightly down from 1,645 in 1975). In 2025, NYC saw 309 murders. So far, in 2026, murders are down about 25% from the same point in 2025.