NFL future
We wrote Monday about the thrilling games and what it means.
Well, it was entertaining, and we documented a lot of the gambling angles and celebration and heartache that accompanied the wild finish in Minnesota.
That drama, however, both on the screen and in the betting community that has long been an NFL staple did not save the league from another mighty slap across the popularity face. (To be fair, most of the NFL "gamblers" are fantasy football players and we'd guess that 90-plus percent of the fantasy football players play during the regular season rather than the playoffs.)
Still, in a year that reconfirmed the league's ratings slide from 2016, last weekend was dreadful news. Dreadful. For the league, the owners, team management and of course the players.
First the numbers, from sportsmediawatch.com:
- The magical Sunday finish that was Vikings-Saints (which also was a 17-0 snorefest through the first two quarters) got a 21.8 overnight rating, which was down 23 percent from the NFL perfect scenario of the Packers-Cowboys in that same window a year ago. Sunday'sSaints-Vikings was the lowest late Sunday overnight since 2009 when the Steelers-Chargers drew a 21.4.
- The Jags-Steelers got a 20.4 overnight, which was down 7 percent from Steelers-Chiefs in the same slot last year. To be fair, the Steelers-Chiefs was moved to prime time last year because of weather, but the year-to-year comparison of 2016 with the Sunday early Division game is no better. In 2016, the Seattle-Carolina game drew a 23.1, which is 12 percent better than Jags-Steelers. That 20.4 overnight for the early slot on Sunday of the Divisional round was the worst since 2002, and was watched by a higher share of the audience than the Texans-Ravens in 2012 and Colts-Chiefs in 2004.
- The Falcons-Eagles drew a 17.4 overnight on Saturday on NBC, which was down 5 percent from last year and again is the lowest since 2009 and the second lowest since 2001.
- The Titans-Patriots, with the biggest star in the playoffs in Tom Brady, finished last with a 16.6 rating on Saturday night. It was down 9 percent from last year (Texans-Patriots) and down 18 percent from Packers-Cardinals in the same time slot in 2016.
Ouch. (And to be completely fair, the NFL numbers are still the biggest on TV, and that's great. But if you are a TV exec as much as you would to have a 16.6 rating for any show, you have to know the math. NFL Sunday Night Football on NBC had 18.5 million viewers in 2017. "The Good Doctor" on ABC had 17.9 million viewers on average in 2017. NBC is paying close to $2 billion annually just to show the NFL, and that's not even counting production and talent costs. Plus, if the Sunday Night game on NBC was truly printing money - like the NFL used to, do you really think they would have cancelled the Week 17 game because of a "lack of a compelling match-up" angle? Yeah, me neither.)
It's hard to imagine this weekend of conference championship games helping the numbers to be honest, considering the match-ups and the star power or lack of it.
And whether you believe this to be the end of the bubble, the anti-protesting backlash, the folks that tuned out because of head injuries, the folks that hate the new rules, the folks that no longer watch because of the slowness of replays or whatever it may be, this much is clear: The NFL has a for-sure image and ratings issue and fixing it has to be job one for Roger Goodell and Co.
Speaking of star power...
Last weekend also seemed to signaled a change to the longstanding thought that the NFL is a quarterback-first, quarterback-foremost league.
Maybe this is a one-year thing. Maybe. But we believe this to be the future, especially since it is not an overnight happening. The last 10 Super Bowl winners had four no-doubt top shelf QBs (Tom Brady twice, Aaron Rodgers once and Drew Brees once), a very good quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) three quarterbacks who got hot at the right time and used elite defenses to make memorable winter runs (Eli Manning twice and Joe Flacco), a no-doubt top-10 all-timer who had his worst season as a pro (Peyton Manning) and a youngster on a rookie contract that allowed the rest of the team to be supreme (Russell Wilson).
The Seahawks' model - a couple of great drafts and an affordable QB which allows you to address most pressing needs elsewhere - is one that many teams have tried to match, and one that these Philadelphia Eagles - as well as the Rams and Jags and Vikings- are currently utilizing to great success.
Last weekend was simply undeniable when you have the top traditional defense overall (Minnesota), the top analytical defense against the pass (Jacksonville, which is also No. 1 in sacks) as well as the top traditional defense against the run (Philadelphia) still alive.
They can do that because they have money in a hard-cap league to spend on elite talent at other positions and add enough impact draft picks.
To be fair, the Patriots are dreadful statistically on defense but they have the most accomplished quarterback of all-time in a system he knows better than Spy knows strip clubs in the A-T-L and a Polar Bear running down the middle of the field catching footballs and telling kids not to eat laundry detergent.
But for so long in the so-steady NFL, the Patriots were the standard. And maybe they still are, but that's because of the success more than everything else. The Patriots were the model: Find stability at head coach and land the Hall of Famer at QB.
Well, the salary cap and the fickleness of fan bases and funky front office types, that's becoming harder and harder.
It also is becoming harder and harder with the surging numbers of spread and mid-line option quarterbacks that are either not ready or not physically able to handle the transition to Sundays. The mid-line stuff works when you are running at the 10th best defender at Vandy not the 10th best defender on the Dolphins, who was likely the best linebacker in his conference his final year in college.
So the Patriots model of success is something everyone is envious of. But the model, like the cars that run on regular gasoline, has been passed. And even surpassed.
Look at the models and the results: Nick Foles (Philly's back-up) over 2016 MVP Matt Ryan; Case Keenum and his $2 million free agent deal over future Hall of Famer Drew Brees; Blake Bortles and his Bortles-ness over future Hall of Famer Ben Roethisberger. It is fair to wonder if Julio Jones had not slipped and Marcus Williams had not delivered the poster image of bad tackling if this narrative would not be different.
Heck, the underdogs - teams with quarterbacks that the majority of the betting public does not trust - are 7-1 through two rounds of these playoffs with four outright wins. (Yes, the Rams are the outlier here as the more complete team with the lesser-accomplished and paid QB, but that was as much about match-up as anything.)
Also of note: Aaron Rodgers is a complete and total outlier to this. He is the best playing the position we have ever seen. Case in point: Watch what happened to the Packers offense without him. So he is worth every penny and sit back, try to protect him as best you can and watch him go. The fact that he has only one Super Bowl appearance is reason to fire Green Bay's entire front office.
But he is now the outlier of that position grouping not unlike how the Patriots' model is running on borrowed time. So where does that leave us in a league of interchangeable quarterbacks and coaches always on the move.
We could see a bold GM leaning on a model of underpaying and over drafting QBs and finding a flexible offensive head coach and overcommitting to him.
Draft a quarterback every other year in the first three rounds and enjoy the cap flexibility. Fight the urge to extend Kirk Cousins or Matt Stafford or so many of the interchangeable pieces that a sound offensive approach and enough pricey pieces around them can turn into MVP-caliber performances.
It would be bold leadership for sure, and it would be outside the common and increasingly flawed current process. But in truth, it also is trusting your skill set as a GM and the skills sets of your coaching staff.
To extend that further, half the the teams in the Final Four - as well as the Saints, mind you - will have strikingly different QB situations next year. Jacksonville has already extended Bortles, but rather than his $6.5 million cap hit, he will count as more than $19 million to the Jags' salary cap. How many other starters will that cost their balanced offense or outrageously good defense?
The Vikings will have to either franchise Keenum, which would take his cap number from less than $2 million to roughly $25 million. That difference is what the Vikings' cap numbers in 2017 are for Anthony Barr ($4.2 million), Xavier Rhodes ($10.4 million) and Harrison Smith ($7.5 million), all of who have made a Pro Bowl in recent years.
So the security for those GMs and front offices of keeping those quarterbacks will cripple strong rosters. That's not a recipe for long-term success, which is the model everyone wants.
Declaring their financial independence
Monday was the deadline for college football players to declare for the NFL draft.
To no one's surprise, Georgia stud duck Roquan Smith declared to toss his name in the pool. It will not be on the board long. Here's TFP SEC ace David Paschall's report on Mr. Smith.
As we have learned in each of the last two cycles, teams getting a few extra stars to stick around one more year can pay huge dividends. It happened heading into the 2016 season for Alabama and before last season with Georgia and each used the returning talent and depth to get to the championship game.
Here are some of the teams that had the best and worst news from the declarations:
Clemson was a huge winner. Huge. Christian Wilkins was likely a first-rounder, but the dynamic defensive tackle is coming back to the Tigers, who now have all four starters back on what was arguably the best defensive line in the country last season. Add in linebacker Kendall Jospeh and corner Mark Fields as well as tackle Mitch Hyatt forgoing the draft, and the Tigers will be a top-three preseason pick by almost everyone and could start the year No. 1.
Washington's offense welcomed back two big names that could make history. Quarterback Jake Browning is coming back for his fourth year as a starter. He has thrown for more than 9,000 career yards and 78 career TDs. For context, if he throws for 3,500 yards and 22 he could rank in the top-25 in passing yards all time and become the 25th player to throw for more than 100 TDs is FBS college football. Add to that the news that running back Myles Gaskin is returning. Gaskin may be the best college football player no one has heard of, considering he has rushed for more than 1,300 yards in each of his three years with the Huskies and has 49 total TDs. And he's coming back. Know this if he stays on his current pace, he could be top 15 and maybe top 10 all time in yards and top 10 in rushing TDs. (Side note: Doing some research - don't get spoiled Spy - how amazing is Keenan Reynolds' 88 career rushing TDs? It's 11 clear of Montee Ball's 77, and 11 TDs is a pretty good season. Wow.)
Speaking of Pac-12 teams getting a stud rusher back, how about Bryce Love's decision to return to Stanford? That's a boost.
Some of the teams that were hardest hit by the early defections were LSU and FSU, each of which lost six players to the draft, Auburn, which lost its top pass-rusher, top cover corner and top two running backs, and Notre Dame, which lost stud duck offensive lineman Quenton Nelson and running back Josh Adams.
This and that
- The Titans fired head coach Mike Mularkey on Monday. It was a surprising move in some regard considering the Titans did, you know, win a playoff game. It also was not supremely shocking considering the like Mularkey drew in the sand about his assistants - especially OC Terry Robiskie - and not making any staff changes. We actually think it was the right move, primarily because of the stagnation of Marcus Mariota this season. That said, we loved TFP ace sports columnist Mark Wiedmer's headline of "Titans can do worse than Mike Mularkey, and probably will." Extremely well played.
- In addition to being clever, it's a fair sentiment and begs the question, "Who is out there?"
- The Cavs-Warriors rivalry is decidedly one-sided and if the Cavs do not get some of the growing internal issues handled, we may be watching the beginning of the end in Cleveland. (And man, LeBron was feast and famine last night. He had 32 on 12-of-18 shooting, but he also had eight turnovers which is extremely too many, and was negative-double-digits in plus/minus/)
- Speaking of mixed bag, how about the craziness in the Clippers-Rockets game? It was a physical and back-and-forth game that featured Chris Paul's return to L.A. After the game Paul apparently led some teammates through some secret tunnels to the Clippers locker room as they were upset about the way things played out. And the Twitter jokes have been excellent.
- After a terrible 2017 that featured injuries and struggles, the San Francisco Giants are serious about contending this summer. The Giants, who traded for third baseman Evan Longoria last month, added Andrew McCutchen, the former NL MVP, on Monday.
- Some crazy college hoops comebacks as Duke and Kansas rally for impressive road wins.
- Danica Patrick confirms she and Aaron Rodgers are smooching. So there's that.
- Man, there would be a lot of hurt feelings in a lot of places if Hugh Freeze gets to be Alabama's OC without missing a beat. Buckle up.
Today's question
True or false: It's a true-or-false Tuesday. We'll go with true.
True or false, Hugh Freeze will be the Alabama OC next year.
True or false, the Titans will hire someone that makes their fans scratch their heads.
True or false, you'd take the Patriots over the field.
True or false, you'd take the Warriors over the field. (And yes, we may ask that one more than once between now and June.)
On this in 1939, the Superman comic strip debuted in newspapers.
A.J. Foyt turns 83 today. Horror film legend John Carpenter is 70. Joe Flacco is 33 today.
Albert Pujols is 38 today. In honor of Mr. Pujols, who makes the Rushmore of right-handed hitters since 1980.
Go.