In the spring of 2013, Chattanooga elected a new mayor and seven of nine new City Council members. Don't look for a similar turnover this coming spring.
Mayor Andy Berke will have four opponents in his March re-election bid, after qualifying closed Thursday, and will get nowhere near the 72 percent of the vote he received in 2013. Indeed, he could be forced into an April runoff, probably with District 4 Councilman Larry Grohn.
The mayor is certainly vulnerable, but he may not be beatable. His Violence Reduction Initiative is seen as ineffective against gang violence and shootings in the city. His erection of bicycle lanes and plans for more narrowed streets has rankled many commuters. The maintenance of city streets is not felt to have kept up pace with previous administrations. His director of youth and family services recently was disciplined for misusing funds. And the estranged husband of one his top assistants alleged the married mayor and the assistant had been indiscreetly involved.
But Berke, a Democrat, has a sizable war chest. He has overseen more growth and interest in the downtown area, and is fortunate to run the nonpartisan race in the city rather than the heavier Republican Hamilton County.
Grohn is likely to pick up support from the East Brainerd area he now represents, and former Councilman David Crockett could win some support from the Hixson area from which he last was elected 20 years ago, but whether they can force Berke into a runoff remains to be seen. A runoff would be forced if no candidate in a more than two-person race receives 50 percent of the vote plus one vote.
Since Grohn is running for mayor, the Council is certain to have at least one new member in his old East Brainerd District 4. And barring anything unforeseen, that new member will be Darrin Ledford, a printing company owner and community volunteer who curiously was the only person to pick up papers and qualify for the open seat.
The Council also is all but certain to have the same faces in Districts 3 and 6. First-term Councilman Ken Smith, once rumored to be considering a mayoral run, was the only person to pick up papers and qualify for his post. And two-term District 6 Councilwoman Carol Berz also will have no opposition.
Elsewhere, we believe first-term District 7 Councilman Chris Anderson and District 9 Councilman Yusuf Hakeem are the most vulnerable.
Anderson will be opposed by his multi-term predecessor, Manny Rico, and by businessman Erskine Oglesby Jr. The incumbent is likely to find his heaviest support in the downtown precincts of his district but lesser support in St. Elmo and Alton Park. If the non-Anderson vote splits between Rico and Olgesby, he could be re-elected in March. If he fails to get 50 percent, his chances probably narrow in a runoff.
Hakeem, who reclaimed his seat by six votes in 2013 after being away from the city for several years, is being opposed by Pat Benson Jr., Demetrius Coonrod and John L. Kerns. He almost certainly will be forced into a runoff, probably with Benson, and that race could produce another nail-biter of a finish.
One other race will for sure end with a winner in March, but first-term District 2 Councilman Jerry Mitchell's race against Mickey McCamish could be a spirited battle.
Another contest that could wind up in a runoff is District 1, where first-term Councilman Chip Henderson faces Susan Miller and Jay Nevans. None of the three appears to be a fringe candidate, so the winner is likely to be determined in April.
Elsewhere, two-term District 5 Councilman Russell Gilbert will face Jeffery E. Evans and frequent candidate Cynthia Stanley-Cash, and first-term District 8 Councilman Moses Freeman will try to hold off Anthony Byrd and Tom Kunesh.
Perhaps since seven of the nine members were new in 2013 and Berke the runaway winner as mayor, this Council has been seen by many as a rubber stamp for Berke's policies. Here and there, individual members have opposed him - Grohn more than others - but his has been a term relatively free of fireworks.
Whether individual districts hold their representative responsible for the mayor's shortcomings - if, indeed, they believe there are any - remains to be seen. Elected officials are usually their most vulnerable after their first term, but that also is determined by the strength of their opponents. With the field set, we'll know within the next few months who's in it to win it and who will be an also-ran.