After Donald Trump's surprise election victory, many people on the right and even in the center tried to make the case that he wouldn't really be that bad. Every time he showed a hint of self-restraint — even if it amounted to nothing more than reading his lines without ad-libbing and laying off Twitter for a day or two — pundits rushed to declare that he had just "become president."
But can we now admit that he really is as bad as — or worse than — his harshest critics predicted he would be? And it's not just his contempt for the rule of law, which came through so clearly in the James Comey testimony. There's also the way Trump's character, his combination of petty vindictiveness with sheer laziness, leaves him clearly not up to doing the job.
And that's a huge problem. Think, for a minute, of just how much damage this man has done on multiple fronts in just five months.
Take health care. It's still unclear whether Republicans will ever be able to pass a replacement for Obamacare. But whatever happens on the legislative front, there are big problems developing in the insurance markets as we speak: companies pulling out, leaving some parts of the country unserved, or asking for large increases in premiums.
Why? It's not, whatever Republicans may say, because Obamacare is an unworkable system; insurance markets were clearly stabilizing last fall. Instead, as insurers themselves have been explaining, the problem is the uncertainty created by Trump and company, especially the failure to make clear whether crucial subsidies will be maintained.
So why haven't received that assurance? Is it because Trump believes his own assertions that he can cause Obamacare to collapse, then get voters to blame Democrats? Or is it because he's too busy rage-tweeting and golfing to deal with the issue? Either way, it's no way to make policy.
Or take the remarkable decision to take Saudi Arabia's side in its dispute with Qatar, a small nation that houses a huge U.S. military base. There are no good guys in this quarrel, but every reason for the U.S. to stay out of the middle.
So what was Trump doing?
The most likely explanation of his actions, which have provoked a crisis in the region (and pushed Qatar into the arms of Iran) is that the Saudis flattered him and their lobbyists spent large sums at the Trump Washington hotel.
Normally, we would consider it ridiculous to suggest that an American president could be so ignorant of crucial issues, and be led to take dangerous foreign policy moves with such crude inducements. But can we believe this about a man who can't accept the truth about the size of his inauguration crowds, who boasts about his election victory in the most inappropriate circumstances? Yes.
And consider his refusal to endorse the central principle of NATO, the obligation to come to our allies' defense — a refusal that came as a shock and surprise to his own foreign policy team. What was that about? Nobody knows, but it's worth considering that Trump apparently ranted to European Union leaders about the difficulty of setting up golf courses in their nations.
The point, again, is that everything suggests that Trump is neither up to the job of being president nor willing to step aside and let others do the work right. And this is already starting to have real consequences.
But, you say, stocks are up, so how bad can it be? And it's true that while Wall Street has lost some of its initial enthusiasm for Trumponomics — the dollar is back down to pre-election levels — investors and businesses don't seem to be pricing in the risk of really disastrous policy.
That risk is, however, all too real — and one suspects that the big money will be the last to realize just how big that risk really is.
We're barely one-tenth of the way through Trump's first term. The worst, almost surely, is yet to come.