The endgame in Libya

There is still much confusion about the future of Libya. Rebel forces clearly are in transcendence. They seem to have effective control of much of the country, including the capital Tripoli, but their grasp on the day-to-day operations of government is shaky. It likely will remain that way until Moammar Gadhafi, the longtime Libyan dictator currently in hiding but still issuing warnings that forces loyal to him will continue to fight, is either captured or killed.

For the moment, though, a certain equilibrium seems to have been established. World leaders have pledged to support the new Leadership, the rebels are consolidating their positions and most Libyans seem content with the situation. There's a general air of celebration and relief that the excesses of the Gadhafi regime have come to an end. The mood of celebration, however, should be tempered by the fact that the rebels have not yet created the kind of formal governmental structure that is required to carry on the every-day business of managing the nation.

The failure to do so is especially worrisome in a couple of aspects. Foremost is growing concern about Gadhafi's immense stockpile of weapons, which includes shoulder fired anti-aircraft devices and, perhaps, nerve and/or biological agents. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton addressed that issue directly Thursday. She said that "Libya's new leadership will need to ... work with us to ensure that weapons from Gadhafi's stockpiles do not threaten Libya's neighbors and the world." It is a timely admonition.

There's worry, too, about who currently controls Libya's treasury and the enormous amount of petroleum-generated income that flows into it. The best outcome, of course, is that the fund be administered by groups and individuals who will use the money to maintain infrastructure like electricity and water service, to continue providing programs like education and health care, and to otherwise improve the lot of ordinary Libyans. At the moment, there's no guarantee of that.

There are reports that at least two groups in the rebel coalition have named their own officials to oversee the multibillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund. Unity in fiscal affairs is far preferable to division.

Much, of course, depends on how long Gadhafi and his forces can hold out. Rebel forces aren't pushing the issue at the moment, wisely extended a deadline for the surrender of forces in Sirte, the dictator's hometown and a place where many believe he could be in hiding. Time and public opinion might be as effective in prompting a surrender as military action.

While no one is willing to offer a timetable for the official end of Gadhafi's claim to power, it is increasingly clear that his reign has ended. The dominant question about Libya now is what comes next -- a gradual transition toward democratic government under the rebel-led National Transitional Council or disputes and disagreements that could lead to civil war or worse.

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