There was considerable optimism around the world last spring that the popular uprisings in the Muslim world would impel democratic reform in Arab nations where autocrats had ruled for decades. There have some remarkable gains, but the revolutions remain a work in progress most everywhere. In Yemen, though, the protests continue to spawn violence between those who seek political freedom and forces loyal the entrenched regime.
The continuing conflict there is especially worrisome for the United States and its allies in the war on terrorism. For years, the U.S.. poured money and arms into Yemen in an effort to stem the influence of al-Qaida, which operated with seeming impunity in the lawless rural provinces of that country. Part of that deal was tacit support for Ali Abdullah Saleh, a corrupt dictator whose years of repression prompted a democratic uprising against him last spring. That revolution continues, though Saleh is no longer in Yemen and U.S. influence there is on the wane.
Saleh is in Saudi Arabia, where he is being treated for injuries sustained in a bomb attack on his palace in June. He's made it clear, though, that he wants to retain in power. Just last week, he reiterated that in response to a U.S. report that he might step down.
That prompted a renewal of the violence that has simmered in Yemen since spring. Unarmed antigovernment demonstrators, joined by armed officers and soldiers from an elite Yemeni military unit that has defected to the rebel side, fought pitched battles in Sanaa, Yemen's capital, Sunday and Monday with loyalist troops armed with heavy weaponry. The toll among protesters was high -- at least 50 dead and hundreds wounded. The fighting did change the tactical situation in Sanaa.
By Monday evening, anti-government forces reportedly had overrun a vital loyalist base and a weapons cache there and were consolidating their positions. It seems increasingly likely that the emboldened protesters soon will directly confront forces loyal to Saleh. The outcome is uncertain. Such action could prompt a civil war between Yemen's divided military and the pro-and anti-government tribal groups loyal to each side. That would be calamitous -- for Yemen, for the region and for the rest of the world.
Continued violence that leads to civil war is unlikely to bring political reform. Indeed, it could delay it. There's another path. There is still time to employ diplomacy to broker a deal between Saleh, pro-democracy protesters and tribal leaders to provide an orderly transition to a more democratic government in Yemen. That, understandably, is a formidable task, but it remains the best way to bring fair governance and peace to that troubled nation.