The senseless slaughter Sunday of 16 Afghan civilians, nine of them children, by an apparently deranged American soldier who walked away from his base and barged in their nearby homes as they slept, is an enormous tragedy. It is an inexplicable, devastating act of violence that defies any sense of common human compassion. Beyond that, this cruel carnage may also become a flashpoint that changes the course of the plodding U.S. war in Afghanistan.
As of Monday afternoon, the shooter had been identified only as a 38-year-old Army sergeant based in Tacoma, Wash., a married father of two children who had served three tours in Iraq and was on first deployment in Afghanistan. He reportedly walked about a mile to a village, where he broke into three houses, shot the occupants and gathered their bodies and set them afire. At least five other Afghans were wounded, some seriously. After the shooting spree, the sergeant reportedly returned to his base and turned himself in.
Though the investigation into his murderous rampage is just beginning, the consequences loom large. The massacre comes in the wake of national protests and murderous violence that erupted last month over the reported burning of the Koran by American soldiers. Several Americans were killed by Afghan soldiers and security officials after the burning became known.
That violence reflected, as well, the hardening and pent-up resentment of the Karzai government and ordinary Afghans toward Americans and NATO troops for drone attacks and night-time raids in Afghan villages, for the defiling of bodies of dead Taliban by U.S. troops, and generally for the seemingly endless 10-year war.
Relations between the Karzai government and U.S. and NATO forces have been further strained by the blatant corruption in the government, narcotics trafficking, and the spreading view that the Taliban -- bolstered by popular disenchantment and cynicism against the current foreign occupation -- may well survive the NATO occupation.
The Obama administration has been working on several fronts in Afghanistan to hasten an American withdrawal of fighting forces over the next two years. The administration has stepped up attacks on the Taliban, while simultaneously attempting to negotiate with Taliban leaders on the grounds that they are a spent force, and that U.S. and NATO support for the Afghan army will ensure government control of the country once NATO forces are largely withdrawn. It has also been negotiating for "an enduring strategic partnership" that would allow for American advisors to the Afghan army and U.S. aid to help stabilize the Kabul government.
The murderous Sunday rampage, however, may well chill the government's cooperation and irreparably harden resentment against the American and NATO presence, analysts believe. It could also persuade the Taliban that the U.S. presence -- the backbone of the NATO force -- is becoming untenable; that popular resistance and mistrust will soon force Washington and NATO powers to withdraw, and that all it has to do is wait for Americans to leave. That perception could turn the tide of the war.