Sohn: Will we be collateral damage for GOP tax plan?

Amendment books for the Republican tax plan set up for a Senate Finance Committee meeting on Capitol Hill earlier this month. (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)
Amendment books for the Republican tax plan set up for a Senate Finance Committee meeting on Capitol Hill earlier this month. (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)

It was good Tuesday to see grassroots protesters back in the Capitol to speak out about the horrible Republican tax reform bill emerging from Congress.

But will it be too little too late?

Tuesday's party-line vote of 12-11 in the Senate Budget Committee moved the bill closer to a floor vote, expected later this week.

But make no mistake: This GOP-penned bill remains a bitter pill for all but the richest Americans and corporations.

Corker's reaction

"After agreeing in principle with Senate leadership, members of the finance committee, and the administration on a trigger mechanism to ensure greater fiscal responsibility should economic growth estimates not be realized, I voted today to advance this important piece of legislation. While we are still working to finalize the details, I am encouraged by our discussions."- Sen. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.

Why don't Republicans care? Because they and President Donald Trump are desperate for a win. A win of any kind. Without one, they will lose their richest and most ardent donors just a year before mid-term elections.

How does this bill help the country? It doesn't, of course. And looking at the fallout of this bill in the long run is even uglier than looking at it in the short run.

The Republican tax bill - one that has had virtually no hearings - increasingly tilts our tax code to benefit high-earning business owners, increasing the growing divide between the rich and the middle class.

There wasn't even lip-service offered for amendments that would help low-income Americans, which some Republican and many Democratic senators had sought. And no, that's not the fault of Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, who didn't come to the negotiation with the president. What was the point? Trump said it all Tuesday morning in a tweet:

"Meeting with 'Chuck and Nancy' today about keeping government open and working. Problem is they want illegal immigrants flooding into our Country unchecked, are weak on Crime and want to substantially RAISE Taxes. I don't see a deal!"

The only part of that tweet that was true was the "I don't see a deal" part. So the Democrats said they would negotiate with Republican lawmakers in Congress instead.

Some of those Republicans don't like all that's in the tax bill either, and Senate leaders cannot afford to lose more than two of the seven lawmakers who have expressed concerns about the bill.

Those concerned Republican senators include Tennessee's Bob Corker - who on Tuesday after the Budget Committee meeting said he is supportive of it with some tweaks. Time will tell, of course. Corker, a smart and careful Republican, is not going to be happy with any plan that significantly raises the deficit, and this one does - by more than $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.

But here's what else this bill does for - or to - Tennesseans:

» More than 865,000 of us who are in the bottom 80 percent of income distribution will face tax increases by 2027 under this GOP tax disaster.

» Meanwhile, 62 percent of the tax plan's benefits go to the 1 percent of the wealthiest among us.

» According to a new report from the Center for American Progress and based on data from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, this plan isn't at all about lifting up low- and middle-income Americans. It's about padding the pockets of those already at the top in our nation.

» It also is a plan that would give corporations a permanent tax cut while raising taxes on millions of families.

» It would trigger automatic cuts to important government programs - including $25 billion in cuts to Medicare in 2018 - resulting in additional burdens on working- and middle-class families.

And no, Medicare is not an entitlement. Working Americans, since drawing their first paycheck, have paid into Medicare. Medicare and Social Security are more like American savings accounts than entitlements. Do not let the GOP put that derogatory "entitlement" adjective anywhere near these words. If the GOP really wanted to fix Social Security, it would raise or eliminate the tax cap on taxable wages (now $118,500) so that the high earners would be paying a fair share.

» The Senate majority bill also threatens access to affordable health insurance by eliminating the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate, which would drive up premiums by 10 percent in 2019. (FYI, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., said that Senate Republicans were increasingly "united" about repealing the requirement that most people buy health insurance, according to The New York Times.)

» Under this bill, all other changes on the individual side of the tax code expire after 2025, with one exception: changing the inflation measure used by the tax code to the chained Consumer Price Index. What this means, according to the Tax Policy Center, is that even when benefits to individuals from the bill's corporate tax cuts are included, 87 million families making less than $200,000 nationally would experience a tax increase under the Senate tax plan by 2027.

This bears repeating: 87 million families making less than $200,000 would experience a tax increase by 2027.

Those senators voting on this bill won't feel this pain. In 2015, 70 percent of our 100 senators were millionaires, and 35 percent of them boasted a net worth of more than $3.1 million each.

Sen. Corker, an outspoken deficit hawk, has a very tiny needle to thread to support this bill.

He's between the rock of raising the deficit by more than $1.4 trillion to give folks in his income bracket a tax break and the hard place of raising taxes over the coming decade for the rest of us - the Tennesseans and Americans making less than $200,000 a year.

We'll know soon enough whether we're just collateral damage.

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