NO. 17 TENNESSEE (8-3, 4-3 SEC) AT VANDERBILT (5-6, 2-5)
7:30 p.m. * Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. * SEC Network/106.5 FM
THE MATCHUP
In shootout wins against Kentucky and Missouri, Tennessee's offense picked up the slack for a defense hemorrhaging yards, and the Vols can't stop now.
Quarterback Josh Dobbs is spearheading the explosion - the senior has nine touchdown passes in the past three games and 337 rushing yards and four touchdown runs in the past two - with plenty of help from his supporting cast. Behind Dobbs and running backs Alvin Kamara and John Kelly, the Vols ran for 762 yards the past two games.
Vanderbilt is sixth the SEC against the run, and Derek Mason's defense hasn't allowed more than 26 points in a game since September.
"They're definitely a good team, and they're like any other SEC team," Kelly said. "All SEC teams are going to be a challenge. Their defense is really good, but we've got a pretty good offense, and I feel like if we go out there and execute our game plan, we'll have a good chance of putting ourselves in a winning situation."
ONE TO WATCH
After allowing Kentucky and Missouri to rush for 863 yards with a whopping 32 runs of 10-plus yards, the Vols must find a way to slow down Vanderbilt's Ralph Webb, who's sixth in the SEC with 1,058 yards and has 10 touchdown runs this season.
Tennessee's defensive issues stem from playing defensive ends at tackle due to injuries, missed tackles at the second and third levels and communication problems.
The long bright spot amid allowing 740 yards against Missouri might have been Jonathan Kongbo, the mercurial defensive lineman who finally played inside and returned an interception for a touchdown.
What will he do for an encore?
"We've been trying to sell him on the merits of playing inside all year, and he bought in," Vols defensive coordinator Bob Shoop said. "He certainly didn't play a perfect game, but probably played over the past couple of weeks his best football. As we move on to this week, the bowl game and the future, we're very excited about that."
IN THE END
The stakes are high for both in-state rivals.
Vanderbilt, which crushed Ole Miss and pushed Florida and Auburn to the wire but also lost to South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri, is a win from bowl eligibility.
With a win Tennessee could wind up in the Sugar Bowl if results elsewhere go in their favor. At worst the Vols likely go to the Citrus Bowl. Either way the Vols' first 10-win season since 2007 would remain on the table.
"If we don't come out ready to play on Saturday," Dobbs said, "then none of that will happen."
After losing out on the SEC East, this a pivotal game for Tennessee and Butch Jones for reasons beyond the Vols' bowl destination. Vanderbilt relied on its ball-control, run-first offense paired with a stingy defense to play close games all season, but it's hard to bet against Tennessee's offense right now.
PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 41, VANDERBILT 26