Greeson: More to analyze in NFL draft

Former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, left, attends a pretrial hearing in Fall River, Mass., in this Dec. 22, 2014 file photo.
Former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, left, attends a pretrial hearing in Fall River, Mass., in this Dec. 22, 2014 file photo.

Aaron Hernandez is headed to the big house, a surefire top prospect for the Mean Machine 3.0 in the next "The Longest Yard."

Adrian Peterson was reinstated by the NFL, and he will able to participate in all activities as of today.

We know what Ray Rice did, and we know that Ray Rice has not worked since he did what he did.

The NFL is the most popular entity in America.

It's the biggest sport in a sport-crazy society, drives the most betting and authors Super Bowl Sunday, an unofficial holiday for the American culture.

The league made more than $8 billion in revenue last year, a total that is crazy high and only going north. It's a number that the league wants to triple in the next 12 years, and a sum the NFL has collected in spite of itself.

The story lines of the league range from the amazing to the deplorable, and they will converge in less than two weeks.

The NFL draft is a sports entity all its own. It's a microcosm and symbol of the amazing growth of the league and the sport.

In the early 1980s, the draft was an offseason procedural meeting filled with index cards and notebooks. Now it's highlight packages and Skype interviews and Mel Kiper's hair generating a high-profile event.

Now, as teams gauge fits and trades and upward potential of the players they are planning on paying eight-figure salaries, there is another category on the minds of NFL scouts.

The first round of the draft is 13 days from this morning, and the debate about physical skills will share the discussion in part with a player's ability to stay out of trouble.

It's a fact of the modern evaluation for NFL teams everywhere. An investment in a first-round pick can be tens of millions of dollars, and he carries the immediate future of the franchise -- and the executives doing the drafting -- on his shoulders.

With that, the top quarterback prospect in the draft is Jameis Winston, a guy with a history of highlight moments on the field and questionable decsions off it.

One of the top pass rushers is Randy Gregory, a Nebraska defensive end who has multiple failed drug tests on his resume, including one at the NFL combine, where every player is told in advance that he will be tested.

One of the most talented receivers is Dorial Green-Beckham, who was the top-ranked prospect in the country his final season in high school and was dismissed from Missouri for assaulting his girlfriend.

These decisions will make the picks for several of the teams at the top of the draft -- the franchises with the worst records and which need the most help -- even more challenging.

Take the Tennessee Titans, for example. They have two picks in the top 33 selections and need a variety of help in a variety of places.

Among those places are quarterback, pass rusher and potentially wide receiver. The Titans will weigh those off-the-field concerns with their deep on-the-field questions.

So what would you do? Do you ignore a past indiscretion or two? Does the seriousness of an incident matter?

There were whispers about Hernandez' checkered time at Florida before he entered the NFL, but that was a different time, too.

In truth, the Titans most likely will not get a chance to decide on Winston, who is projected to be the top overall pick to Tampa Bay. Gregory is falling quickly in the rankings and Green-Beckham could be on the board when the Titans make the first pick of the second round.

The Titans, as much as any team in the league, are starving for an identity. Need proof: Name their best offensive player? Exactly. So the decisions about rolling the dice for a team this forgettable become even more exaggerated.

There are whispers that Tennessee could deal that second pick, and there are numerous suitors looking to deal up for Marcus Mariota, the Oregon quarterback who recently has been questioned about being "too nice" to play in the NFL, of all things.

One possible scenario that has picked up steam recently is Tennessee dealing the second pick to San Diego for Philip Rivers and a first-round pick, which could become Todd Gurley, who was suspended for four Georgia games by the NCAA. Then maybe Green-Beckham is in play at No. 33.

Would that be a major upgrade? Absolutely, and that's the goal of the draft.

Would all of those pieces be long-term solutions? Well, that's the dilemma that all NFL teams are wrestling with, and the questions today are more far-reaching than ever before.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com. His "Right to the Point" column appears on A2 on Monday, Thursday and Saturday, and his sports columns are scheduled to run Tuesday and Friday. Read his online column "The 5-at-10" weekdays starting at 10 a.m. at timesfreepress.com.

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