Greeson: Draft success crucial in NFL

A freshly painted NFL football logo is shown in the south end zone of CenturyLink Field in Seattle in this Jan. 14, 2015, photo.
A freshly painted NFL football logo is shown in the south end zone of CenturyLink Field in Seattle in this Jan. 14, 2015, photo.

This is a precarious time for NFL players.

For most of the league, the next wave of talent is getting all the buzz and attention after doing big things at the combine.

Your replacements are being scouted. The next wave of stars is being groomed.

For former flavors of the hour, the phrase "cap casualty" becomes a common refrain.

photo Jay Greeson

Reggie Bush, a former can't-miss prospect who was the No. 2 overall pick in 2006, was cut by the Lions on Thursday.

A.J. Hawk, a top-five overall pick a decade ago, was waived by the Packers.

Neither of these was a real shock -- to players, teams or fans -- because the M.O. of building successful franchises in today's NFL is as much about cap management as it is about scouting and player development.

It's an understandable model. Draft as many good young players as possible and hope more than half of them turn into affordable contributors. If you can string back-to-back drafts together that feature six to seven contributors with a couple of stars mixed in, you open a window of competitiveness that could blossom into potential championship contention.

Look at the elite teams in the league such as Seattle, New England and the others. They build and rebuild through the draft and maximize their chances with affordable excellence at quarterback. Sure, the quarterback value is as much about luck as anything, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Ask Indianapolis, which will have roughly three consecutive decades of quarterbacking excellence because it landed the top overall pick in the years that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were in the draft.

You load up on young and inexpensive talent and cut the mid-level veterans who have moved up the pay scale. It's a sign of the times, and in some ways a precursor to a lot of the tomfoolery with which the NFL is dealing. A litany of former NFL stars turned broadcasters have mentioned the fact that the locker room is being cleansed of higher-priced veterans to secure depth and roster flexibility. It makes fiscal sense, but the reality is the guys who can lead from within the team are becoming fewer and fewer.

Sure, teams are securing long-term relationships with their quarterbacks, but those relationships are different.

So as a few familiar players get pink slips in the next couple of weeks, the hope for rebirth and reload that is the draft is paramount.

For the Tennessee Titans it means a plethora of options. They have the No. 2 overall pick, which means a potential franchise quarterback in either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston will be available. Possible franchise defensive lineman Leonard Williams likely will be available, too. They also could potentially trade down for more picks since the team has a multitude of needs.

Each path has its merits, and sadly, looking at the Titans' recent history, it's hard to have confidence that they will make the proper decision. Taking the quarterback is the easy choice if you are Ken Whisenhunt and have even a shadow of a doubt about Zach Mettenberger's long-term prospects.

If Whisenhunt and Co. draft a "franchise" quarterback, it means at least an extra year of grace period as the team builds around the future face of the organization.

A trade down depends on what the value of the No. 2 overall pick could be. Personally, we like the idea and the presence of Williams, a 6-foot-5, 300-pound freakish athlete who could play multiple spots on a defensive front that will have multiple looks under new defensive guru Dick LeBeau.

For the Atlanta Falcons, the No. 8 overall pick almost assuredly will be a pass rusher for new head coach Dan Quinn and a defense that was among the league's worst in 2014 at getting to the quarterback.

While the doubts about the Titans' personnel decisions have been forged through time and well-earned through history, Quinn gets a benefit of the doubt regardless of which defensive lineman/linebacker the Falcons ultimately draft. Quinn got final say on personnel decisions when he was hired, and he had a big hand in the moves that helped make the Seattle Seahawks a historic defense in the last few seasons.

Plus, Atlanta catches a rare break in that pass rusher is among the deepest positions in this draft, something that makes the No. 8 overall pick even better for Quinn and the Falcons.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com.

His "Right to the Point" column appears on A2 Monday, Thursday and Saturday, and his sports columns run Tuesday and Friday. Read his online column "The 5-at-10" Monday through Friday starting at 10 a.m. at timesfreepress.com.

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