A couple of still-pertinent reminders regarding the Fab 4 picks: First, as always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. Second, past performance is not a guarantee of future entertainment gains.
Since the start of the 2011 season, we have been picking at least four college football games against the spread each week. We have been pretty good. Entering this season, we were 284-175-6 picking college games against the spread. That's almost 62 percent.
After a 5-2 mark last week, we're sneaking toward our goal of 60 percent again. Let's face it, picking games against the spread is a tough errand for a multitude of reasons.
Take last week for example.
We've had some entertainment success this season picking over/unders (that's a number Vegas sets as the mark of total points scored in a game, and you can pick over or under that total). We did not pick the over/under in the Alabama-LSU game last week, but it's a prime example of how thin the margin is between entertaining and disappointing.
OK, the closing total for that showdown was 46.5 points. With roughly 10 minutes left in the game, LSU scored a touchdown to make it 30-16 with the extra point pending. The kick was blocked, and Alabama was able to drain the rest of the time off the game clock.
If you had the under, that's highly entertaining.
The over? Not so much.
With that, let's see if we can't do a little song and dance and entertain some folks.
Baylor minus-2.5 over Oklahoma. The public is screaming that Oklahoma is the most complete team in the Big 12. OK. When the public starts screaming, Vegas starts salivating. This line has fallen from an opening-bell number of Baylor minus-7. All we can tell you is this (and don't go getting spoiled by all this research): Baylor has won 20 straight home games by more than 25 points per game, and the only one that was as close as three was a 61-58 win over TCU last year. Maybe the public is right about the Sooners, but the numbers and Vegas back the Bears. And when looking for entertainment, remember that math is your friend.
TCU minus-44 over Kansas. Fact: TCU laid an egg last week that cost it a shot at making the College Football Playoff. Fact: Trevone Boykin had the worst game of his career. Fact: The Horned Frogs are hacked off. Fact: Kansas is on the short list of worst power conference teams in the past decade and is destined for 0-12. Fact: Kansas has allowed more than 40 points in six of its nine losses. This line could be 55 and TCU would still be the pick.
Kentucky-Vanderbilt under 40. What do we search for when hunting entertainment? We search for things in which you can trust. Like a steadfast rule - "Do not eat yellow snow," for example - or a betting principle: "If a spread looks too good to be true, it normally is." Well, the astute entertainment hunter has made a mint on Vandy and the total this year. The Commodores are salty defensively. This is a fact. Also a fact: If you bet the under in Vandy games this year, you are 8-0-1 and likely in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Florida-South Carolina under 46.5. There's a trend developing here. Whether it's great defenses, bad quarterback play or a mix of some of each, there are a collection of SEC teams that are the anti-dopplegangers of their Big 12 counterparts.
Alabama-Mississippi State under 52. This SEC under pick is a little bit different. This is balancing the simple factors of a) Alabama's defensive line would arguably rank in the top five of the NFC; b) after playing LSU (a demanding chore physically and emotionally), the Crimson Tide face a tough test on the road that will force them to be a little more conservative and rely on their greatest strength up front; c) Mississippi State's defense is statistically every bit the match of Alabama's. Here's a vote that the first team to 20 wins.
BYU minus-4.5 over Missouri. Is there a worse matchup following the off-the-field drama for Missouri? Unless you have been under a rock somewhere on the third moon of Endor, the story lines out of Missouri this week have been about the football team and nothing about football. The Tigers' role in the protests and the eventual ouster of the school president have made international news. Now they get the nothing-but-business BYU Cougars in a neutral-site game.
Georgia Southern minus-6.5 over Troy. A hungry Georgia Southern bunch still smarting from a disappointing effort against Appalachian State two weeks ago? Yes, please. The talent difference here screams more than a touchdown - it's closer to two scores, in fact - and that means plenty.
Last week against the spread: 5-2 (71.4 percent)
This season against the spread: 37-26 (58.7 percent)
SEC items of interest
1. Alabama handling Dak Prescott. Alabama goes on the road for a challenging test against Dan Mullen and the league's most consistently overachieving program. Mullen chuckled when his team was picked to finish seventh in the West - again - over the summer at SEC Media Days. And he's getting the last laugh. Does Alabama have more talent and depth? Sure it does. But expect this one to be close. First, Vegas has it right around an 8-point line, which is a lot of respect for the Bulldogs. Secondly, Alabama has failed to cover the spread each of the past four years the week after playing LSU. Buckle up.
2. Deep South's Oldest (and this year, most disappointing) Rivalry. At 55-55-8, the series between Georgia and Auburn could not be closer. This year, they even bring a matching level of disappointment mixed with a fair balance of "What if?" For Georgia, it's what if Nick Chubb didn't get hurt? For Auburn, the what ifs are varied and numerous, from what if Carl Lawson and Jovon Robinson didn't get hurt to what if Duke Williams could control his temper to the myriad questions surrounding the pysche of Jeremy Johnson. Either way, in addition to the bad blood of this rivalry, the winner takes a large step toward avoiding holiday trips to Memphis or Shreveport, La.
3. Slugfest in Death Valley. Arkansas and LSU are two of the more physical teams in the league. They each enter after a crazy donnybrook last week, and there are two important questions to answer. First, can Leonard Fournette find his stride after being derailed by Alabama's dominating front seven? (Here's a hunch that Fournette saw Reggie Ragland in his dreams this week.) Second, can the Arkansas offense continue to dazzle? Don't look now, but Brandon Allen may be the league's best NFL quarterback.
4. Tennessee becoming bowl eligible. UT's record of strong November reigns will continue. Saturday's opponent - North Texas - may be the worst Football Bowl Subdivision team in the country. Yes, coach Butch Jones will say it's the most important game of the season because it's the next game of the season. True and not true. The only thing in doubt about this one is if UT will score enough to cover the monstrous 42-point spread. Still, postseason plans - and with a couple more chances to polish that résumé ahead - Johnny Vols Fans should at least be grinning.
5. UK-Vandy. My opinion of Commodores coach Derek Mason has turned. Dude deserves another year in Nashville whether Vandy wins another game this year or not. Defensively, the Commodores are in the league's top five. Now picture if they had even an average offense - four of their losses this year were by single digits - and what that picture would look like. This game is also big for Mark Stoops, the Kentucky coach who for the second consecutive year started quickly before hitting a major bump in the road. Last year, the Wildcats started 5-1 and lost out. This year, the Wildcats started 4-1 and enter Saturday with a 4-5 mark. Of all the places in the SEC to start fast and fade as basketball starts, UK seems like the poetic choice, no?
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him at Twitter.com/jgreesontfp.