Wiedmer: Unlike 2009, UT may edge Bama at the finish

Call me crazy -- and the crimson elephants among us no doubt will -- but it's not that hard to find a reasonable argument for unranked Tennessee upsetting No. 8 Alabama on Saturday.

One need only return to six years ago, to 2009, to the Volunteers' 12-10 loss to the eventual national champs on an eerily similar October Saturday inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Though Volniacs may understandably want to forget the mastermind of that near upset, given that Lane Kiffin now roams the Crimson Tide sideline as the Bama offensive coordinator, it was Kiffin's unique ability that season to make Big Orange opponents uncomfortable that nearly changed the course of SEC football.

Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin yells instructions to his players during the first half of an NCAA college football game against top-ranked Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009.

Merely consider that if UT had prevailed that day, the Tide almost assuredly would not have won the first of Nick Saban's three national titles at the Capstone. And had he not won that title with Auburn prevailing a year later with Cam Newton at quarterback, Auburn might have become the new flavor of the decade within the SEC.

This isn't to say Saban would have flown the Heart of Dixie, but he would have been playing catch-up in his own state rather than merely reloading for back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012.

Beyond that, what of Kiffin if he had stunned the Tide? What if the giddiness of that triumph back home in the Volunteer State had overwhelmed him so that he couldn't wait to coach an encore season for a school that might have come to view him as the second coming of Gen. Neyland?

It's true that Kiffin probably always was going to jump ship for Southern Cal if the offer came. It's also true that however bumpy the Vols' path has been in the seasons since, they haven't drawn the attention of the NCAA gumshoes since the Lane Train departed, and that's undeniably a good thing.

But if Kiffin had stayed, and the NCAA remained at bay, UT would have been something to reckon with sooner than later.

Which brings us back to this coming Saturday, to another Oct. 24. Also exactly the same as in 2009, a 3-3 UT squad enters the Bama game coming off a bye week following an Oct. 10 win over Georgia. And just like in 2009, Alabama arrives having played seven games over the previous seven weeks. The Tide's off week falls after UT and before LSU, just like in 2009.

Unlike 2009, Bama isn't undefeated, but rather 6-1. Of course, that lone loss came against an Ole Miss team that not only forced five turnovers but scored the wildest SEC touchdown ever by a team not named Auburn.

Yet all those advantages and breaks produced only a six-point Rebels win (43-37), which was the same margin by which Ole Miss shocked the Tide a year ago before Bama regrouped well enough to reach the inaugural college football playoff.

But Tennessee also is very different than in 2009. Kiffin's bunch smoke-and-mirrored its way through much of the season, almost happy to lose close encounters to UCLA, Florida and Auburn. By contrast, Butch Jones' Vols could easily be 5-1, maybe 6-0.

They should have beaten Oklahoma and Florida. They led Arkansas 14-0. And aside from the understandable emotional dip against the Razorbacks after that gut-wrenching loss at Florida, the Vols appear to be getting better every week.

Or as UT defensive back Brian Randolph told the media Monday, "We've been through the losses. We finally got a good win on our shoulders. We all like the feeling of (winning), so we're just trying to get it again."

There was also this from Coach Jones regarding the maturation of quarterback Josh Dobbs: "I thought he grew up a lot last week against Georgia. He was really holding players accountable in a very, very positive fashion, a very constructive fashion, which was great to see."

Of course, it was 1995 when a different UT quarterback in his first complete season as a starter turned the UT-Bama series on its ear. Having started part of the 1994 season as a true freshman, Peyton Manning led the Vols to an epic 41-14 rout of the Tide in Birmingham, snapping a nine-year streak of UT futility against Bama (there was a tie in 1993) and ushering in a string of seven straight Big Orange wins.

Dobbs isn't yet Peyton Manning. But these Tiders don't yet look as unbeatable as their 2009 counterparts. In the end, that Bama team's championship dreams lived only because defensive lineman Terrence Cody blocked a last-second UT field goal. This game could be decided by a similarly thin margin.

But playing eight games in eight weeks in the SEC fatigues even the strongest and deepest of football teams.

So when Jones said Monday, "I thought our health came at the right time. Now, it is what we do with it, what we do with our health," it's worthy of consideration by both sides.

As is this additional thought from the UT coach about the value of the off week: "We were able to get a jump start on (preparing for) Alabama as well."

From advantages such as those could the Vols knock off the Tide for the first time in nine years. Make it UT 28, Bama 27, with the Tide missing the final field-goal try this time around.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.