Fab 4 (plus 3) picks
It will be tough to top last week's picks.
We hit five of our seven picks and even warned against lines that looked too good to be true (Georgia Tech and Southern California both won and covered despite close spreads against unbeaten, top-10 opponents) and mentioned two coaches - Al Golden and George O'Leary - who were struggling, and they were without their jobs by Sunday evening.
Wow.
There are not a lot of "Too good to be true" spreads this week, so the board is open.
South Carolina-Texas A&M under the 56.5. Yes, Connor Shaw did not come back to South Carolina during the off week. The Gamecocks are bad at quarterback, and Texas A&M is confused at quarterback. Now, add to those offensively challenging truths that this noon kickoff has 90 percent chance of thunderstorms. Bad quarterback play + driving rain = 21-6 A&M win. When you break it into simple math, it's much easier, you know.
Lousiana Tech-Rice over 60. La. Tech has been a fairly reliable entertainment option for a while, and this year it has gone over the total in five of its eight games (two of those fell short of the total by a field goal or less). The Bulldogs move it. Rice has been an equally reliable shootout partner, going over in five of its seven games. Again, it's math, people (and remember to show your work).
Notre Dame minus-10 over Temple. Buy the half just because that's how we operate, and yes, there's some concern about a late backdoor cover here, but still. Yes, Temple has overachieved, and, yes, catching double digits in the biggest home game in program history has some attraction. What does not are these two simple facts: Temple has not beaten a ranked team this year (and its best win likely is a 24-14 defeat of a 4-4 East Carolina), and its schedule is ranked 111th out of the 128 FBS teams according to Jeff Sagarin, while Notre Dame has handled one of the nation's top 10 schedules and is 6-1; now know that it's hard to name a position group on the field where Temple has a clear advantage.
Penn State minus-5 over Illinois. Penn State likely will get to 8-2 without a significant win this season. James Franklin's bunch is flying under the radar, but it will not be hard to get the Nittany Lions motivated against an Illinois program that beat them last year. Laying less than a touchdown seems like more than a fair price.
East Carolina minus-7 at Connecticut. On paper, the numbers look similar. A 4-4 ECU team at 3-5 UConn. A TD seems high on the road, right? Well, it actually is low. ECU's losses are to Florida, Navy, BYU and Temple, a quartet that is a combined 24-4 for the season. UConn, however, has collected its three wins against winless UCF, 2-6 Army and FCS foe Villanova. Buy the half, of course, and as Maximus asked, "Aren't you entertained?"
Navy minus-7 over South Florida. Another chance to buy the half, and enjoy the moment. Side note: If you are wondering about picking less-than-high-profile games, well, you're right. If you want predictions on the games that will draw most of the TV eyes, well, those are coin flips more times than not. Picking Florida-Georgia just because it's on the TV can add to the entertainment of watching the game, but it would be a hard game to gauge to add entertainment to your bankroll. That said, if you want to watch Navy, that's great. Taking the Midshipmen and laying the 7, however, looks to be very entertaining.
Florida International minus-2.5 over Florida Atlantic. When you talk about in-state blood feuds, you start with the Iron Bowl, then maybe the Egg Bowl and Clemson-South Carolina. You'd have to go about another 100 or so slots down the list before you got to the in-state Alphabet Soup Bowl of FIU-FAU. And as we all know, games do not have to be aesthetically pleasing to be entertaining, if you know what we mean.
Last week against the spread: 5-2 (71.4 percent)
This season against the spread: 30-19 (61.2 percent)
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SEC items of interest
1. Georgia-Florida, winner all but sure to book a trip to Atlanta. With all the doom and gloom of the last two games for the Georgia fan base, the Bulldogs are still left with this real truth: They control their destiny in the SEC East. Win Saturday against Florida and Georgia is in the driver's seat to get to Atlanta. If Florida wins, though, it's all but sealed for the Gators, and first-year coach Jim McElwain can start rehearsing his SEC coach of the year speech.
2. Tennessee starts its march toward eight wins. UT needs a strong finish to reshape the narrative of a difficult month. In fact, according to Sagarin's strength of schedule, the Vols have played the second-toughest schedule so far this year. (Texas is No. 1, for what it's worth.) Well, those challenges get easier starting this week. In fact, Saturday's tussle with Kentucky will be the most difficult left, considering that UT then has a game against arguably the worst FBS team in the country in North Texas surrounded by the SEC-underachieving trio of South Carolina, Missouri and Vanderbilt. If the Vols handle things against the Wildcats, here's saying the Big Orange rolls through November and turns 3-4 to 8-4 heading toward the postseason.
3. Auburn a home dog against Ole Miss. Man, before the season, the thought of Auburn catching points at home against anyone other than possibly Alabama seemed silly. Now you have to wonder if Ole Miss laying seven is enough. To be fair, Auburn's three most important players before the season - quarterback Jeremy Johnson, receiver Duke Williams and defensive end Carl Lawson - have been benched, dismissed and sidelined by injury, respectively. That's not an excuse; it's just what happens at times when seasons with big dreams get derailed. Now comes an Ole Miss team with as many as four potential first-round picks in next spring's NFL draft. One of those is Laquon Treadwell, who thankfully has returned from a gruesome injury in this game last year. Sneaky feeling that Treadwell may make a big play or three for the Rebels.
4. Vanderbilt's defense. Did you know that if Vandy had just gotten below average quarterback play, the Commodores could conceivably be 5-2 and talking about postseason hopes? Instead, an anemic offense has wasted a great defensive turnaround and Vandy is 3-4 and a 12-point underdog against high-flying Houston. It's hard ever to envision an SEC team beating an AAC team as an upset, but Vandy has allowed more than 30 points to only one team, and Georgia needed a late pick-six to get there. Houston may very well win - and maybe even cover - but it's tough seeing the Cougars matching their 47-point average against a VU defense that is better than its 3-4 record.
5. South Carolina after an off week. Can the Gamecocks close quickly after a bounce-back win and an off week? It's tough to see much from a team that has real quarterback issues (if the answer is Perry Orth, the question may need to be changed) and a difficult stretch of A&M this week, a hungry Tennessee team, Florida and closing with Clemson. Ouch-standing. That said, if interim coach Shawn Elliott closes quickly - considering he is 1-0 and does have The Citadel in November, too - can scratch out two more wins and finishes 4-2, would that be enough to get the job permanently?
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.