Mark WiedmerBut will history eventually recognize that win, should it occur, as the Tar Heels' sixth NCAA title or their fifth?
That question is posed as UNC braces for some ruling, finally, by the NCAA after a ridiculously long investigation into the school's 18-year run of academic fraud involving athletes and other students.
Not that the Baby Blue Empire shouldn't take some of the blame for the delay. For starters, in an inspired bit of legal chicanery, UNC self-reported additional charges last August. That backed up the whole investigative process to a point that all but assured this year's basketball team would be able to compete for a title, which is exactly what's taking place tonight.
Beyond that, initial investigations by the school into these charges were lazy at best, deceptive at worst. Not until attorney Kenneth Wainstein conducted an independent investigation that concluded in October 2014 - and found that academic counselors from football, men's basketball and women's basketball asked for players to be enrolled in bogus independent study programs in order to be academically eligible- did the school admit it had serious problems.
Or as dailytarheel.com quoted Carol Folt, UNC's chancellor, at the close of Wainstein's investigation: "I feel shocked and very disappointed."
Still, school officials weren't shocked or disappointed enough to let the penalties fall where they might. Knowing this basketball team, if it could stay together, just might have the talent and experience to win it all, UNC filed those additional charges against itself last August, knowing in advance the likely result of such a move.
And when it comes to the young men who make up this team, you can hardly blame the school for that decision.
Unlike a few of the questionable characters Tar Heels boss Roy Williams enherited upon his arrival in 2004, this squad mostly calls to mind the best of late Hall of Fame coach Dean Smith's teams, true student-athletes who also happened to be terrific basketball players.
Masterfully made up of three key seniors (guard Marcus Paige, forward Brice Johnson and reserve center Joel James), three juniors (center Kennedy Meeks and crucial reserves Nate Britt and Isaiah Hicks) and three gifted sophomores (guard Joel Berry II and wings Josh Jackson and Theo Pinson), the Tar Heels have no real weakness on the nights they can hit from deep.
And even that weakness seems to become a strength when most needed. Consider that in its Sweet 16 win over Indiana, UNC hit 10 of its first 12 triple tries. On Saturday night, after missing their first 12 3-pointers against Syracuse, their lead having shrunk from 17 to seven points with just more than nine minutes to go, the Tar Heels hit four of their final five from long range.
Should that trend continue tonight against Villanova, UNC might win by its average tournament victory margin of 16 points.
But Villanova is also a team to hugely admire both on and off the court, beginning with senior point guard Ryan Archidiacono, whose father was a Wildcats football player with Hall of Famer Howie Long. Throw in senior post Daniel Ochefu and juniors Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart and reserve Darryl Reynolds, and you have two teams anyone should feel good about cheering on to victory.
Perhaps because of that, NCAA president Mark Emmert had something to say Thursday of the reason Syracuse was allowed to play in this tournament despite 10 years' worth of violations and why UNC probably shouldn't worry about this title being vacated should the Tar Heels win tonight.
"Everybody I've been around in college sports," Emmert said, "no one ever likes imposing sanctions on students who had little or nothing to do with whatever an infraction was."
As frustrated as some folks may be about that, it's tough to argue against. But if former Tar Heel Rashad McCants' claims are true that he would have been academically ineligible for UNC's 2005 NCAA title run without the bogus courses Wainstein investigated, it's equally hard to argue against vacating that 2005 title.
This isn't to say McCants was telling the truth. That's not yet known. Maybe he made it all up, even though the transcript he produced for ESPN two years ago, if valid, clearly showed how much the bogus courses contributed to his eligibility that season, when he averaged 16 points per game and scored 13 in the 75-70 championship win against Illinois 11 years ago tonight.
Nor would vacating the Tar Heels' 2005 Final Four appearance be unprecedented, even though no prior basketball champion has been stripped of its crown. Southern Cal's 2004 football title was vacated because of improper benefits extended to running back Reggie Bush. And on the basketball front, Memphis was stripped of its 2008 title game appearance because of academic irregularities involving Derrick Rose, and both Villanova and Western Kentucky's 1971 Final Four appearances were vacated by agent issues involving players Howard Porter and Jim McDaniels, respectively.
No one knows for sure, of course, that UNC couldn't have won it all in 2005 without McCants, but then no one knows for certain that Memphis, Villanova and Western Kentucky couldn't have made their runs without the aforementioned players.
All that's known for sure today is that two seemingly outstanding groups of young men from North Carolina and Villanova are set to play what could be a championship game worthy of all that's good about intercollegiate athletics.
Whether that leads to a sixth- or fifth - NCAA title for UNC ought to depend on whether or not McCants should have been eligible against Illinois 11 years ago tonight.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.