Wiedmer: Warlick deserves more time to shape Lady Vols

Tennessee head coach Holly Warlick pats guard Te'a Cooper (20) as she leaves the game in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against the Virginia Tech Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015, in Knoxville, Tenn. Virginia Tech won 57-43. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
Tennessee head coach Holly Warlick pats guard Te'a Cooper (20) as she leaves the game in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against the Virginia Tech Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015, in Knoxville, Tenn. Virginia Tech won 57-43. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
photo Tennessee coach Holly Warlick speaks to center Mercedes Russell (21) as she heads to the bench during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Mississippi State in Starkville, Miss., Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016. No. 13 Mississippi State won 65-63. (AP Photo/Jim Lytle)

The late, great Al McGuire first uttered the words more than 30 years ago. Referring to Joe B. Hall following the legendary Adolph Rupp at Kentucky, McGuire said, "You want to be the coach who replaces the coach who replaces the legend."

Holly Warlick's problem as coach of Tennessee's Lady Vols basketball team is that she replaced the most legendary coach in women's basketball history. And not only did Pat Summitt win 1,098 games and eight NCAA titles before she was forced to retire in 2012 to battle Alzheimer's disease, she had coached Warlick, who grew up in Knoxville.

So with the Lady Vols program likely to fall out of the Top 25 this week for the first time in 30 years regardless of what happens in this afternoon's home game against Alabama (3:30 p.m., SEC Network), one can't help but wonder if Warlick is feeling her seat warm beneath her.

Especially since there's at least a realistic possibility of UT's women missing the NCAA tournament for the first time ever.

That's right - EVER!

The Lady Vols advanced to the Final Four of the very first NCAA women's tournament in the spring of 1982 and haven't missed one since. Then again, it's tough to find a year the Lady Vols looked this vulnerable on the eve of February.

You could even make an argument that this might become the season when all those former Lady Vols might be willing to let Dave Hart strip "Lady" from the program's nickname, if only to separate this squad from all the excellence that's graced the Lady Vols previously.

But whether that means criticism of Warlick is justified less than four full seasons into her tenure as head coach is another matter. Especially when one considers that she is yet to lose an NCAA tourney game before the Sweet 16 and had reached the regional final in two of her three full seasons on the job.

Does this mean the Lady Vols program is on the uptick? Not exactly. But this much should be considered also: Summitt reached the Final Four in none of her final four seasons, though she did reach the Elite Eight both of her final two.

And for all those frustrated by the team's last two losses at Kentucky and at Mississippi State - which was 0-36 against the Lady Vols before winning in overtime Thursday - both the Wildcats and Bulldogs were rated above UT in the polls.

While one can argue whether a program with the Lady Vols' talent and history should be ranked below Kentucky and Mississippi State, there's no disgrace to dropping two road games by a total of three points to two teams ranked above you in the polls.

Finally, for all those ready to give Warlick her walking papers over a tough start, there is this: Beginning on Feb. 18, the team's final four regular-season games will come against teams currently below the Lady Vols in the SEC standings.

Certainly the four before those four aren't easy. UT hosts scrappy Arkansas on Thursday, travels to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt after that, then welcomes No. 2 South Carolina to Thompson-Boling Arena on Feb. 15.

But if the Lady Vols could beat Alabama today, then win six of their last eight, they could head into the SEC tournament with a 19-12 overall record and 10-6 conference mark in the No. 2 RPI league in the country. Under that scenario, there's no way UT misses March Madness.

Of course, anything much worse than a 19-12 finish will make the SEC tournament a must-win scenario. Not necessarily the title, but certainly a semifinal run, and quite possibly a spot in the final.

It's all doable, but if UT falls short, Warlick should still have a job for another season or two.

As she left Mississippi State on Thursday, having lost for the fourth time in the last five games and the fifth time in the last seven, Warlick said with a sigh, "It's kind of the way the season has gone thus far."

You couldn't blame her. No one loves the UT program more than Warlick. But however poorly the season's gone to date, it doesn't mean it has to go that way from this point forward. Yet whether it does or not, when you've reached two Elite Eights in your first three seasons, you deserve a fair chance to return the program to its former greatness.

For UT athletic director Dave Hart to do anything else would spit in the face of everything Summitt built and Warlick hopes to maintain.

Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com

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