Jay GreesonI've been making against-the-spread picks - for entertainment purposes only, of course - in this space since the start of the 2011 season. If you've been following those picks, you know we're now better than 60 percent over that time.
That's pretty entertaining, right?
Several maxims and guidelines have been fashioned into our rules. Here's a quick recap:
Rule 1: Any line that looks too good to be true almost certainly is.
Rule 2: Nobody is "due" - the only things that are "due" are library books and postage.
Rule 3: We are hunting games to make "entertainment," not games that will be entertaining. This is important to remember because if you are checking the TV listings before you are checking the spread, that's fine. An extra 20 entertainment vouchers for the action on a game you are planning to watch, that's cool. But you have to recognize it for what it is - simply buying the adrenaline on a game that could go either way. (And if you are putting vouchers on every game you watch, well, that's a different animal entirely.)
Rule 4: Picking winners is great, but finding losers is just as profitable.
Rule 5: To quote Crash Davis, "A player on a streak has to respect the streak. You know why? Because they don't happen very often."
This is true for teams on a roll or pickers on a roll, who may believe they are winning because they are wearing their lucky socks and sitting in the same spot on Saturday afternoons. We have not listed these in a while, and there certainly will be more added as we continue to hunt entertainment.
Also of note, there are several games that have potential entertainment on the line, but the impact of Hurricane Matthew could change the dynamics greatly. Keep an eye out and check the weather, gang.
This week's best entertainment options (lines are from vegasinsider.com on Thursday morning):
Louisiana-Monroe minus-3 over Idaho. We are going to buy the half, of course, and we are going to take the opposite side of the Idaho Potato Cakers all season. Man, from the Frank and Sly Stallone category of brothers in the opposite ends of their respective professions, meet the Petrinos. Bobby, who coaches at Louisville, is a hot name for every major job in the country; Paul, who coaches at Idaho, is best known for fighting with reporters and being the Petrino who did not mess around with an Arkansas volleyball player.
Ohio minus-12 over Bowling Green. First-year Bowling Green coach Mike Jinks and Co. are reeling, 1-4 overall - that one win was 27-26 over North Dakota as an 18-point favorite - and bagel-and-5 against the number. Ohio played Tennessee very tight through three quarters and is sound on defense. Again, a chance to ride a loser as much as find a winner.
Florida State plus-3 over Miami. The Hurricanes are unbeaten, ranked in the top 10 and riding high, with a future NFL quarterback under center. The Seminoles are on the short list of the most disappointing teams in the country. The game is in Miami, which is enjoying the reunion tour with its first-year coach, Miami alum Mark Richt. Everything is lined up for the Hurricanes to roll, right? Nope. Florida State has more talent across the board, and this feels like a major violation of Rule 1, right? Right.
Notre Dame plus-3 over North Carolina State. Another game in which a) the wrong team is favored, talent-wise, and b) a soggy field will make an extra field goal even more valuable. This is one Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly really needs, and true need is just as good as real value.
Ohio State-Indiana over 58. OK, maybe we need to float another idea that may need to become a rule: When Ohio State and Urban Meyer have an over/under that is less than 60, you have to go over. So far this year, the Buckeyes have scored 77, 48, 45, and 58 points. Yes, please.
Stanford-Washington State over 57. We also like Washington State as a home dog, but Stanford's desperation is tough to ignore. (Now cue the research music - and don't get spoiled.) Still, the past nine times Mike Leach and Washington State have been underdogs, they are 8-1 against the spread with six outright wins. Leach - one of our favorite coaches in any sport anywhere because he's not bashful about speaking his mind - said to reporters this week that Stanford is "kind of a quieter place to play, kind of a 'bring your own energy' place. Crowd-wise, it's one of the quieter stadiums." Still, the Cardinal without their top two cornerbacks are going to have to score points to stay in a game that could become a shootout.
Auburn minus-2 over Mississippi State. This one could determine who finishes last in the SEC West. And amazingly, as crazy as that side of the league has been with the jockeying of position for everyone after Alabama, who knows how high the winner could place. That said, Auburn coach Gus Malzahn feels like the more desperate guy with the better defense, and I'd like to know the number of times those qualities have been connected in Malzahn's coaching career. That won't make it easy, but that should be enough unless this one ends in the infamous 3-2 score this game had eight years ago.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread (80 percent).
This season: 18-9 against the spread (67 percent).
Tennessee train keeps rolling? The Vols have turned the corner and now own an 11-game winning streak. Have those wins been easy? Not even a little bit, considering the way the Vols have had to rally from early holes so far this season. Also of note, in that 11-game streak, Tennessee has been favored in all of those games and a double-digit favorite in eight of them. The Vols are a touchdown underdog at Texas A&M this week, so this will be their toughest test, talent-wise, in that span. Add in the spice that John Chavis threw around this week - the former Vols defensive coordinator and current Aggies DC said A&M's stadium is the loudest he's ever seen - and this one could be fun.
Alabama takes another team's best shot. This time it's Arkansas taking a swing at the top-ranked Crimson Tide. The big question here will be how freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts handles his second road test as a starter. He was up and down at Ole Miss as the Tide needed three scores not produced by the offense to prevail. Here's betting Hurts continues to mature and plays pretty well.
Battle for the basements. There's a real chance the losers of the Auburn-Mississippi State and Vanderbilt-Kentucky games will finish last in their divisions. So in the desperation bowls, it will be interesting to see which of these quarterback-challenged offenses can make enough plays for their coach to remain smiling at least one more week. (Side note: Dan Mullen can smile all he wants. Even if Mississippi State finishes last in the West, there's no heat on him. The other three, however, are certainly hearing the whispers and feeling the tinge in the backs of their trousers.)
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.