Four spots.
Seven deserving teams.
At least that's one sports writer's view (blush, blush) on the 18th of October regarding the current favorites to make the third edition of the College Football Playoff, its Fortunate Four officially announced by the selection committee 47 days from today on Dec. 4.
At least three of those seven programs - top-ranked Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State and third-ranked Michigan - could pass an eye test in total darkness, just by the crushing sounds of their defensive hits and the "whoosh!" noise their offensive skill players make when blowing past helpless defenders.
As for the other four teams - 2015 national runner-up Clemson, Washington, Texas A&M and once-beaten Louisville - they all have work to do and bitter rivals to defeat in order to join the fun. Throw in the fact that both the beauty and cruelty of college football is that every game matters - and that losses late in the season tend to sting more than those suffered early - and you have the makings of a fantastic finish to the regular season.
For that reason alone - that early losses are often forgiven - Louisville is more likely to overcome its Oct. 1 defeat at Clemson than the Tigers might be able to overcome a loss, should it occur, at Florida State on Oct. 29.
Likewise Bama - as unbeatable as the Crimson Tide have looked to date - could find itself on the outside looking in should it fall at home this weekend to No. 6 and fellow unbeaten Texas A&M, at LSU on Nov. 5 or to Auburn on Nov. 26.
Ohio State and Michigan, on the other hand, may both make the playoffs regardless of what happens between the two on Nov. 26 if they can both arrive at that showdown unbeaten.
As for Louisville, that loss to Clemson certainly hurt the Cardinals, but so did Houston's loss at Navy last week, since even a win by U of L at Houston on Nov. 17 won't carry the weight it would have if the Cougars had entered that one unbeaten.
Instead, Louisville coach Bobby Pinocchio's bunch will now be expected to beat Houston by a comfortable margin, so anything less than a three-touchdown victory probably hurts the Cards' chances.
That said, if there's one team out there no one above No. 7 Louisville wants to play in the postseason, it's probably the Cardinals and their Heisman hopeful quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Or as Duke coach David Cutcliffe noted after last Friday's 24-14 loss at Louisville, "I said before the ballgame that I thought they were a very complete team. They're extremely talented. They're also extremely well coached in every facet of football. (They) would be difficult for anyone to beat."
But like everyone else save Bama and the Ohio State-Michigan winner, the Cardinals will need help. Let Clemson and Washington both finish unbeaten and the loser between the Buckeyes and the Wolverines might need a lot of help.
Not that it ever shakes out the way it's predicted.
Courtesy of former Louisville Courier-Journal sports writer Rick Bozich via his new gig at WDRB.com, none of last season's top five in the Associated Press's Week 8 poll made the playoffs. Those eventual four playoff teams stood at 6 (Clemson), 7 (Michigan State), 8 (Alabama) and 17 (Oklahoma.
Go back to the CFP's first year in 2014 and only Florida State (2) was in the top five among the eventual four playoff teams at that same eight-week mark. Alabama was seventh, Oregon ninth and Ohio State 13th. The Buckeyes, of course, won it all over Oregon's Ducks.
So perhaps Bama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson and Washington should be more than a little nervous heading into this weekend. Perhaps it's too early to know anything. Especially since the first official playoff standings won't be revealed until Tuesday evening, Nov. 1.
However, Alabama certainly looks like the real deal, as do Ohio State and Michigan. If Washington can keep playing as it did in a 70-21 win at Oregon - a victory that snapped 12 straight losses to the Ducks - the Huskies could get there also.
Especially if every player at UW has the mindset of quarterback Jake Browning, who said after that lopsided win: "Seventy-seven (points) would've been cool, too. The more points you can score, the better."
But the more wins you can collect is what's best, especially if Bama, Ohio State and Michigan keep winning. Just a hunch, but I'll go with a Fortunate Four of Alabama, OSU, Michigan and Washington.
I'll then expect the Tide to top the Wolverines and their SEC-hating coach Jim Harbaugh in one semifinal in the Peach Bowl, with the Buckeyes beating the Huskies in the other semi at the Fiesta Bowl. After that, in a rematch of their 2014 semifinal, Alabama gets revenge on Ohio State as it repeats as national champion.
If it shakes out any differently, feel free to claim "rigged system" and "voter fraud." Just don't do it in an email. All those college football fans in Russia might be hacking.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.