Greeson: Finding losers can be very entertaining in college football picks

Jay Greeson

The best thing you can find when hunting for entertainment is the worst team in college football. Good teams have bad days every now and then, but it is much more rare for bad teams to have good days. Talent can slump; lack of talent, however, seldom changes.

With that in mind, we are starting to see teams that truly are terrible. And as we frequently have to remind ourselves, hunting entertainment with picks is not the same thing as looking for entertaining games.

First, before we get to some candidates of teams that could be the bottom of the barrel, let's pick a couple of games because of specific matchups that are appealing:

Georgia minus-6.5 over Missouri. Look at the differences in talent between the two rosters, and Missouri needs way more than a touchdown to balance these teams. Yes, it's in Columbia, but also know that there are still plenty of good seats available, and in their two trips to Missouri, the Bulldogs have two wins by a combined margin of 75-20.

Miami minus-2.5 over Appalachian State. Yes, the Mountaineers were impressive against a Tennessee team that was very one-dimensional. Yes, the game is in Boone, N.C., which, in addition to being a great little home-field edge will be an overwhelming culture shock to a collection of Hurricanes who are mainly from South Florida. Still, Miami can throw it, and Brad Kaaya is a future NFL quarterback. Will this one be close? Maybe, but you have to believe Miami simply has too much talent not to win the game.

Texas A&M plus-3.5 over Auburn. Sorry, but it feels like the wrong team is favored in this one. This one simply is math. This feels like a field-goal game, so the 3.5 price is nice. Plus, in an entertaining but young Southeastern Conference series that has been dominated by the road team, there's value in backing the better quarterback in what's expected to be a tight game - and Aggies starter Trevor Knight is far and away the best quarterback in this game. His team getting points feels like a gift.

South Carolina-East Carolina under the 50. Man, at first this line looked like a misprint. Is that supposed to be 30? Nope, it's 50, which means it's awfully appealing for South Carolina, which makes plays on defense and mistakes on offense.

Washington State minus-24 over Idaho. Ah, the first wave of betting against a team as much as betting on a team. Idaho is terrible and coached by the stinky Petrino. Yes, Bobby can coach; Paul, not so much. And if you think that's not important to you, would you want Frank Stallone carrying your movie rather than Sly? Thought not. Now add in the motivation of a Mike Leach-coached offense that has struggled the first two weeks. Yes, please. This one feels like 61-17.

TCU minus-24 over Iowa State. Iowa State may be the single worst Power Five conference team in the country. Sorry Kansas, you have been replaced at the top (or is that the bottom?) of the stinky list. The Cyclones dropped their opener against a Football Championship Subdivision foe and then got so motivated for in-state rival Iowa, they lost 42-3 only after the Hawkeyes called off the dogs. Another one that feels like 61-17. Or maybe even 61-7 - if Iowa State can score the seven, that is.

Duke-Northwestern under the 45. Duke has a backup quarterback who managed all of two touchdowns at home against Wake Forest. Northwestern's offense is so challenged it mustered only 277 yards and one score last week against Illinois State. First team to 16 wins.

Rutgers minus-5 over New Mexico. New Mexico is terrible. Now add to that the travel of flying 3,000 miles for a noon Eastern kickoff. This line should be closer to 15, and as we all know, when it comes to picks, added value equals added entertainment.

Last week: 2-2 against the spread.

This season: 5-4 against the spread.

There are several big things on tap this week nationally and a few intriguing things happening around the SEC. Let's explore four items among the latter:

1. Nick Saban facing a rare two-game losing streak to Ole Miss. Saban's late-game eruption at Lane Kiffin last week was every bit as much for overall team focus for this Saturday's trip to Oxford as it was for anything that happened against Western Kentucky. Saban having a two-game losing streak to anyone this side of the AFC East feels about as common as back-to-back holes-in-one. Sure, it has happened, but it's not flippin' likely to happen again. (Research alert, and don't get spoiled: The last time Saban lost three in a row to the same team was during his Michigan State days when he could not topple quarterback Drew Brees and Purdue.) Here's betting Saban has his team's attention for the first survive-and-advance test in the treacherous SEC West. We know this - if Ole Miss can't find a running game, that Alabama defense will make it a long afternoon for Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly.

2. LSU's quarterback carousel. LSU's offense has started the season downright disastrous. The Tigers have arguably the best running back in the country and at least two future NFL wide receivers, but they scored one offensive touchdown against Wisconsin and were scuffling against Jacksonville State before Danny Etling was inserted at quarterback. Original starter Brandon Harris looks like this year's version of Auburn's Jeremy Johnson, and the overarching question has to be why Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron have not been able to find and/or develop an adequate option at quarterback. This team is too good to be this mediocre.

3. Which team emerges from Auburn-Texas A&M? With Ole Miss's injuries and LSU's limitations, the winner Saturday between the Tigers and Aggies could join Arkansas as potential movers in the topsy-turvy SEC West. The Aggies have a quarterback they can trust; the Tigers have their best defensive line in more than a decade. The winner takes a step forward; the loser will have to fight to get to seven wins, and that could make a coaching change at either locale possible. Yes, there is a lot riding on the third game of the season for each team.

4. Will the Vols and Dogs handle their business? OK, Tennessee and Georgia have fashioned similar résumés: Each has a pretty impressive showing against a recognized Atlantic Coast Conference foe at a neutral site that was not entirely neutral; each also has a sleepwalking performance against a smaller program that very well could have been a disastrous loss in each case. Yes, App State is better than most people realized - including the Tennessee players - and Nicholls State took advantage of a Georgia team that simply was not ready to play. As the calendar hits the midway point of September, Georgia has an SEC road game it has to expect to win at Missouri. Tennessee has one more cupcake before its must-win game with Florida. And fans of each are still not completely sure what the Vols and Dogs are just yet.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.