Jay GreesonWe've learned our lesson. We are 14-8 against the spread this season. That's profitable.
Three of those losses were very avoidable considering they violated the most fundamental rule in entertainment: "If a line looks too good to be true, it normally is."
Last week it was Michigan State giving up less than a TD at home to Wisconsin. Housed.
The week before, it was Georgia giving less than a TD to Missouri, which looked awful the week before. Loser. A couple of weeks ago, it was Duke at home laying five against Wake Forest. (Yes, that Wake Forest.) Double-digit loser straight up.
That's three clear times we jumped in on name rather than intel. We backed Sparty because they had drummed a Notre Dame that is as hollow and heartless as the Tin Man. Missouri looked bad, sure, but we ignored how bad Georgia looked against Nicholls State because it was Georgia. Georgia and Missouri are going to struggle at times this season, so that price was way too high because of name recognition. As for Duke, well, that was the prime example.
There's at least one and several potential "too good to be true" (or TGTBT) lines on the board this week, and while it's tempting to go the other way on a few of these and bank on the knowledge that Vegas builds five-star hotels and offers lobster dinners for $6.99 because so many players go to these sucker lines like catfish to chicken livers, we opted out.
Still, it's worth a warning on some of these TGTBT games. How about these: Penn State minus-3 against Minnesota after Penn State got hammered and Minnesota is 3-0. Stanford getting points at Washington; Stanford is legit but will be missing both starting cornerbacks and its fullback while facing a deafening crowd on a Friday night. Even Wisconsin getting double digits with wins over LSU and Michigan State on its résumé as the Badgers go to Michigan fits the label.
Be very careful. And remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (spreads are from vegasinsider.com from Thursday morning):
BYU minus-3 over Toledo. Buy the half of course, and sometimes you have to go with the team that has been thoroughly tested, even if it has struggled. The Cougars are at home - and at altitude, with a 10:15 Eastern kickoff tonight - and have been absolutely heartbroken in three losses. BYU is 1-3, and the biggest margin of victory in any of its games is three points. BYU has played Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. Toledo has played Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State.
Central Florida-East Carolina over 58. This game features offensive-minded teams that are comfortable with their quarterbacks, so here's a hunch the winning team will score well into the 40s. This is the perfect overplay on a game that features a tightening spread as kickoff nears. This screams one-score game and potentially overtime.
Troy minus-13.5 at Idaho. Idaho is terrible. Yes, terrible. We are riding against Idaho all year. (Yes, we are planning on riding Nebraska all year, too, but the price seems a little high this week with the Huskers giving up 21 against Illinois.) But Idaho - yep, the potato cakes are in the discussion for the worst team in the country despite a 2-2 record. (Two wins, each by three, over Montana State and UNLV; the two losses are to Washington and Washington State by a combined 95 points.)
Ole Miss-Memphis over 66. We think Ole Miss will win this one pretty comfortably, but the price begs a backdoor cover. Plus, there is a chance Ole Miss starts sluggish after mauling Georgia last week. Still, the Rebels lost to Memphis last year, so coach Hugh Freeze should have his team's attention. The total is undervalued for two offenses that produced 122 points last week. That total is balanced by defenses that allowed 17 points last week against struggling offenses.
Washington State plus-2 vs. Oregon. The wrong team is favored in this one. Here's a friendly tip when hunting entertainment. Vegas knows which teams are popular. Vegas knows which teams are good. Sometimes that means overinflated lines that can be tough to read on very good and very popular teams. (Case in point: We do not pick a lot of Alabama games because they always are giving up an extra four points in every line because the Crimson Tide are fan favorites and good enough to cover the extra cushion.) Well, every now and then you can find name teams that are overvalued because of their popularity. Oregon, for instance. You say, "Oregon, man they have the flashy uniforms and have that fast offense and didn't their QB win the Heisman?" Well, yes on the unis, but there are no style points in the chase for entertainment. Yes, the Ducks play fast, but McDonald's has super fast service, and fast is not always good. And yes, their QB did win a Heisman - three years ago. Oregon is ranked 61st among the 65 Power Five conference teams in defensive efficiency.
Last week: 3-2 (60 percent) against the spread.
This season: 14-8 (63.6 percent) against the spread.
1. Coach O in the head man's headset. Ed Orgeron is a lot of things. He's an awesome recruiter, and a maniacal defensive line coach. He also has a college head coaching career won-loss record at Ole Miss (not good) and USC (pretty impressive as the interim a few years ago). Now he gets to add eight games as the interim coach at LSU after the Tigers fired Les Miles last Sunday. For Coach O, a Louisiana native, this certainly is a dream opportunity that starts Saturday with a home game against Missouri. Will LSU be flat? Will it be inspired?
2. Next step for Tennessee. The Volunteers vanquished the 4,000-pound monkey on their back with a near-perfect second half to topple Florida last week and end the Gators' 11-game run in the series. Now comes a chance for the Vols to grab the SEC East race by the collar and shake it into a place of near submission. Tennessee's defense will be without its best cornerback (Cam Sutton), and is trying to overcome injuries to its best two linebackers (Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jalen Reeves-Maybin), but as long as Derek Barnett is on the field, the defense can cause trouble. Georgia doesn't want to hear injury talk because the status of star running back Nick Chubb is still uncertain. Tennessee conquered its Gator-demon, but can the Vols handle the next step of handling their business as a road favorite in the Southeastern Conference?
3. Aggies building steam. Texas A&M has been the most surprisingly impressive team in the league this season. A 4-0 mark includes a win at Auburn, a neutral-site win over Arkansas and a home win over UCLA. Now comes a marathon trip to South Carolina, which stinks on offense. A&M is favored by more than 17, which is a testament as much to how excellent the Aggies have been as it is to how undermanned South Carolina's roster truly is. But with a monster October that includes a visit from Tennessee and a national showdown with Alabama, it's fair to wonder if Texas A&M, rock solid for four consecutive weeks, will continue its excellence.
4. Battle of Beale Street. Last year, the Memphis Tigers punctuated a season for the ages with a home win over Ole Miss. It was as shocking as it was solid. Memphis was the better team that day, with a future first-round NFL draft pick at quarterback and a head coach blazing his way to a Power Five job. To replace quarterback Paxton Lynch, now with the Denver Broncos, Memphis has handed the keys to Riley Ferguson. Yes, that Riley Ferguson, who was anointed the people's quarterback during his short time in Knoxville before leaving school, transferring to a junior college and landing with the Tigers. Last week, Ferguson passed for more than 360 yards and six touchdowns. In two quarters. Ole Miss, led by do-it-all QB Chad Kelly, should be well aware of what can happen if it's not ready. Hope the statisticians are ready and their pencils are sharpened.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@ timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.