Mark Wiedmer
No NCAA tournament bracket is perfect. The tournament selection committee that makes it isn't perfect, the group almost certainly made up of overall quality folks who surely have some prejudices or ignorances.
So to find no fault in this year's 68-team field would seem to be almost as impossible as picking a perfect bracket, which according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen carries odds of 1 in 128 billion, though others project it as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion, a figure that actually contains 18 zeroes.
That said, overall - excepting the relatively easy draws of Duke and Gonzaga until the regional finals and South No. 2 seed Kentucky's potential second-round game with 30-game winner Wichita State - this might be as fair and balanced a draw as has been seen in the past decade.
Well, unless you were Syracuse and you were left out despite wins over three top-10 foes. Or you're Rhode Island and you have to travel to Sacramento to play your first-round game. Or you're Kansas and you've inexplicably been stuck with a potential Sweet 16 game against fellow Big 12 Conference member Iowa State (and also found fellow conference brother Oklahoma State in that same Midwest Regional despite each of the other three regionals containing but one Big 12 team).
Beyond that, how would you like to be ACC members and in-state rivals Virginia and Virginia Tech and possibly meet in the Sweet 16, though Tech would have to upset defending national champ Villanova in the second round to play such a game?
But perhaps that's too much negativity.
For as Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim - who has as much right as anybody to be negative this year, though he did go all the way to the Final Four last season while probably getting in that field with a worse résumé than this year's model: "I think anybody, and I mean anybody, can win."
To expand on that, he mentioned Middle Tennessee State University, which shocked the world last year as a No. 15 seed by knocking off No. 2 seed Michigan State, then gave Boeheim's bunch a pretty tough tussle.
MTSU earned a No. 12 seed this time around, and you wonder if it shouldn't have been higher, since the Blue Raiders (30-4) crushed Vanderbilt 71-48 on Dec. 8, and the Commodores not only made the Big Dance as a No. 9 seed but also became the first at-large team to make the field with 15 losses (against 19 wins).
Of course, as CBS analyst Seth Davis noted Sunday while referring to the seeding, "We'll be looking at the teams on the 12 and 13 (seeding) lines, because that's where the magic happens."
And the history of No. 12s over No. 5s should certainly give hope to MTSU against fifth-seeded Minnesota on Thursday in Milwaukee. Only once in the past 16 tourneys has a No. 12 failed to post at least one win over a No. 5, and that was back in 2007. Moreover, two No. 12s last season - Yale and Arkansas-Little Rock - knocked off Baylor and Purdue, respectively.
"Wichita State and Middle Tennessee should have been seeded higher," said Charles Barkley early Sunday evening, no doubt mindful that college hoops metrics guru Ken Pomeroy has had Wichita State as high as eighth nationally. And that's not an eighth seed. That's No. 8 overall.
And you could certainly make a case for the Blue Raiders and Shockers being worthy of a sixth or seventh seed. You could also make a case for Duke - with three straight ACC tourney wins over foes ranked in the Top 25 - being a No. 1 seed, because the Blue Devils beat No. 1 seed North Carolina twice.
Maybe they should be. But as Boeheim said, this has been a year of remarkable parity. There's North Carolina with a No. 1 seed and seven losses. There's UCLA with a No. 3 seed despite road wins over No. 2 seeds Arizona and Kentucky.
And while the South Region - North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA - would seem to be overloaded, Kansas in the Midwest with dangerous Miami, Louisville, Iowa State, Oregon, Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan (What? They couldn't toss the entire Big Ten in the Midwest?) might seem to be the Region of Death.
But again, aside from Duke - which, if the seeds hold, would have to knock off Troy, South Carolina and Baylor (not exactly a trio of lions and tigers and bears, is it?) to reach the East final - no one has it all that easy.
To borrow one line from selection committee chairman and Michigan State AD Mark Hollis: "We had 20 teams who finished No. 1 in their conference (regular season) also win their (league) tournament. Last year we had 11."
So who wins it?
Look for Arizona and the Atlantic Coast Conference trio of Duke, North Carolina and Louisville to advance to the Final Four in Glendale, Ariz. Expect the Dookies to knock off the Cactus Cats and the Cardinals to shock UNC.
Then expect the Blue Devils to deliver coach Mike Krzyzewski his sixth NCAA crown by defying all odds in knocking down 14 3-pointers inside a football stadium to finish the season as they started it - No. 1.
Villanova guard Josh Hart (3) in action during an NCAA college basketball game against Providence, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2017, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Laurence Kesterson)East Region
- Best player: Josh Hart, Villanova. The 6-foot-6 senior wing has averaged 18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.6 steals per game for the 2016 national champions. He makes 50 percent of his shots from the field, 40 percent from the 3-point line and 75 percent from the foul line. He's not the only Wildcat capable of carrying 'Nova for extended periods, but he's the one most consistently able to play at the level the Philly Felines did last season before cutting down the nets.
- Best opening-round matchup: Virginia (5) versus UNC-Wilmington (12). UNCW almost shocked Duke in last year's round of 64, and the Seahawks are better this time around, hitting 37 percent of their 3-point shots.
- Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Virginia Tech (9). It's not just that the Hokies have won six of their past nine in the toughest conference in America - it's that they beat Miami, Virginia and Wake Forest, nearly won at Louisville, are ninth nationally in 3-point offense and face Wisconsin (307th in 3-point defense) in their tourney opener.
- Most likely round of 32 upset: SMU (6) over Baylor (3). The Mustangs only go six deep, but they're a very talented six and easily capable of reaching the Sweet 16.
- Best potential Sweet 16 game: Florida (4) versus Villanova (1), if the seeds hold, could be interesting if the Gators are hitting shots from the perimeter.
- Projected regional final: Villanova versus Duke.
- Projected regional champ: Duke.
- Trivia: Should Duke reach Madison Square Garden for the East Regional semifinals and finals, it shouldn't feel intimidated. Under coach Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils have a 29-10 record in the Garden. Noted ESPN analyst Jay Williams, a former Duke great: "We called it Cameron Indoor Stadium North."
Gonzaga guard Nigel Williams-Goss (5) shoots during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against BYU in Spokane, Wash., Saturday, Feb. 25, 2017. (AP Photo/Young Kwak)West Region
- Best player: Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga. The redshirt junior, a Washington transfer, is the biggest reason why the Zags can reach the Final Four for the first time ever. His averages of 16.9, 5.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game while hitting 91 percent of his free throws and 52 percent of his field goals are the envy of most point guards in the field, save Frank Mason of Kansas.
- Best opening-round matchup: The Brainiac bracket - Northwestern (8) versus Vanderbilt (9). If it goes to several overtimes, perhaps they should present their SAT scores and let that decide it. But just having Northwestern in its first NCAA tourney ever makes this matchup memorable.
- Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Xavier (11). The Musketeers have been up and down all season, but with guard Trevon Bluiett rounding into form after an injury that happened during the regular season, Xavier might shock a couple of teams.
- Most likely round of 32 upset: Maryland (6) over Florida State (3).
- Best potential Sweet 16 game: If seeds hold, the winner of West Virginia (4) vs. Notre Dame (5) taking on Gonzaga (1).
- Projected regional final: Arizona (2) vs. Notre Dame.
- Projected regional champ: Arizona.
- Trivia: Vanderbilt coach Bryce Drew hit one of the most famous game-winners in NCAA tourney history when his 3-pointer at the horn delivered Valparaiso an opening-round win over Ole Miss in 1998. Northwestern's Chris Collins played a key role in Duke's march to the 1994 national championship game. But beyond that, Drew played collegiately for his father, Homer Drew, and Collins is the son of current ESPN analyst and former NBA coach Doug Collins.
Kansas guard Frank Mason III (0) call for crowd support during the first half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against TCU in Lawrence, Kan., Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2017. Mason scored 20 points as Kansas won 87-68. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)Midwest Region
- Best player: Frank Mason, Kansas. A finalist for the Wooden Award, the 5-foot-11 senior point guard averages 20.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, and he has made 49 percent of his 3-point attempts and 78 percent of his free throws. He is the undisputed heart and soul of the Jayhawks.
- Best opening-round matchup: Michigan (7) versus Oklahoma State (10). The Wolverines have captured the imagination of the public by escaping a plane crash on their way to the Big Ten tourney, having to wear practice uniforms in the early games before emerging as champs Sunday. Oklahoma State won nine of its past 13 in the competitive Big 12.
- Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Rhode Island (11). In a battle of Rams, Rhode Island outlasted Will Wade-coached Virginia Commonwealth University in the Atlantic 10 title game on Sunday to capture its first NCAA tourney berth since 1999. During a three-game stretch in November, Rhode Island beat Cincinnati, lost by 10 to Duke and beat Ohio Valley Conference regular-season champ Belmont.
- Most likely round of 32 upset: If freshman guard Bruce Brown gets hot outside, Miami (8) could shock Kansas (1) if the Hurricanes can first get past Michigan State.
- Best potential Sweet 16 game: Iowa State (5) versus Kansas would be a rematch of the Cyclones' earlier upset inside the Jayhawks' Allen Fieldhouse.
- Projected regional final: Kansas vs. Louisville.
- Projected regional champ: Louisville.
- Trivia: Should Louisville and Michigan meet in the round of 32, it would be a rematch of the Cardinals' 2013 NCAA title victory over the Wolverines inside the Georgia Dome and the third time that Louisville's Rick Pitino has faced Michigan's John Beilein in an NCAA game. The first time was when the Cards nipped Beilein's West Virginia Mountaineers to reach the 2005 Final Four.
UCLA's Lonzo Ball comes down with a rebound against Washington during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 4, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)South Region
- Best player: Lonzo Ball, UCLA. This may be more about NBA potential than college excellence, but the Bruins' freshman point guard is quarterbacking the most exciting, well-balanced offense in the tournament other than Duke. The 6-foot-6 Ball enters March Madness averaging 14.6 points, 7.7 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game while hitting 54 percent from the field and 41 percent from Treville. More importantly, he has taken the Bruins from a 15-17 record the year before he arrived to 29-4 this season.
- Best opening-round matchup: Minnesota (5) versus MTSU (12). The Blue Raiders are seeded three spots higher than when they pulled off the upset of the 2016 tourney by shocking second-seeded Michigan State. They won't have the element of surprise this time, having already won 30 games, but may not need it.
- Best bracket buster (No. 8 or worse seed): Wichita State (10). Yes, the Shockers have tough games all the way through, beginning with Dayton (7). But they beat Flyers coach Archie Miller's older brother Sean's Arizona Wildcats in last year's tourney; should the Shockers get by that one, they owe Kentucky in the second round for Big Blue's upset of undefeated, top-seeded Wichita State in the second round of the 2014 tourney.
- Most likely round of 32 upset: MTSU over Butler (4).
- Best potential Sweet 16 game: If seeds hold, Kentucky-UCLA would be a rematch of not only the 1975 NCAA title game, but also a repeat of this season's UCLA win in Lexington, which snapped the Wildcats' 42-game winning streak at Rupp Arena.
- Projected regional final: North Carolina-UCLA.
- Projected regional champ: North Carolina.
- Trivia: The top three seeds in this region - North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA - have won a combined 24 national championships and reached 54 Final Fours. Talk about a top-heavy regional.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.