Tennessee's basketball team has double-digit victories over the top-10 tandem of Kansas and Texas this season, yet the Volunteers also have multi-possession losses against the unranked trio of Colorado, Florida and Kentucky.
Quite the conundrum come NCAA tournament time, right? Not necessarily, according to longtime ESPN bracket forecaster Joe Lunardi.
"I don't think they're an enigma," Lunardi said Monday afternoon. "I mean, every team in the country now has at least two losses, and if you're going to have losses, those aren't the worst losses in the world. Alabama went to Oklahoma and lost by 20-plus points in that Big 12/SEC Challenge, and the Sooners have fallen out of the field.
"I have Tennessee as a solid 2 seed and sixth overall, ahead of both Texas and Kansas and right behind UCLA, and I could make the case for Tennessee to be fifth overall. Tennessee is in a pretty good position at this stage of the game, and I would be very optimistic as a Vols fan at this point."
The Vols improved to 19-4 overall and to 8-2 in Southeastern Conference play with Saturday's 46-43 edging of Auburn inside Thompson-Boling Arena. Tennessee won despite shooting 27.0%, but it was the second straight dreadful offensive showing after a 27.9% clip in last Wednesday's 67-54 loss at Florida.
Tennessee dropped from No. 2 to No. 6 in Monday's Associated Press poll entering Wednesday night's game at Vanderbilt, but the Vols remained No. 2 behind Houston in both the NET rankings and Pomeroy rankings. Alabama, which is 20-3 overall and 10-0 in SEC play, is No. 3 in both the AP poll and NET rankings and No. 5 in the Pomeroy.
Lunardi, who was a guest of "Press Row" Monday on Chattanooga's ESPN 95.3 FM, explained why the Crimson Tide and not the Vols are a 1 seed right now.
"Well, one is 10-0 in the league, and the other is 8-2, and Alabama has a little bit more in terms of truly high-end wins," he said. "Tennessee's best win is probably Kansas on a neutral court, and Alabama's best win is Houston on the road, which for me counts a little bit more.
"It could easily flip-flop between now and five weeks from now, when we have the bracket in our hands."
Five weeks from now, Tennessee fans will be hoping their program can rewrite history. The Vols have been to 25 NCAA tournaments but possess only seven trips to the Sweet 16 and have a 1-7 record in those games.
Tennessee's lone Elite Eight appearance occurred under Bruce Pearl in 2010, with the one Sweet 16 trip under current coach Rick Barnes taking place in 2019.
"This has been a Tennessee program that keeps putting itself in position to make a Final Four, and whether they're a 2 or a 1 seed at the end of the day doesn't really matter," Lunardi said. "What matters is playing your best five weeks from now, because if you're a 2 or a 1, you project out to the Elite Eight, and if the 2s and 1s meet, you've got to beat them anyway.
"I wouldn't get too hung up about seeding as a Tennessee fan at this point."
League chatter
Lunardi said he often gets asked his opinion about the best league in college basketball, though it doesn't figure into what he does.
This winter hasn't been any different.
"If you ask which league has the most elite teams that could reach the Final Four, right now the SEC has two of the best five or six teams in the country," he said, "and that's better than anybody, including the vaunted Big 12, which admittedly could have six teams seeded fourth or better.
"That would be unprecedented, and it would be a bracketing nightmare in terms of following the bracketing rules."
Should the Big 12 have eight of its 10 teams reach the NCAA tournament, Lunardi said that 80% success rate would set a record.
Down the stretch
Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M have been residing on the NCAA tournament bubble, which should make for an entertaining stretch run in the SEC, and there are other leagues with multiple bubble teams as well.
"Right now, it's the least separation I've ever seen between the 10 and 11 seeds and those just missing," Lunardi said, "but I don't know if it will hold that way. When you get to this point, generally more teams are playing their way out than playing their way in. Oklahoma is the best example of that. They were world-beaters against Alabama and in the bracket, but they've had a more drastic fall than you usually see.
"If any team on the bubble in a given week can go 2-0, you can move up one or two seed lines, because almost no one is doing that."
Contact David Paschall at dpaschall@timesfreepress.com.