JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson saw this coming.
No, really.
Pederson first started telling his players they would have a chance to make the postseason in early November, after a five-game losing streak dropped the Jaguars to 2-6 and left them four games behind the Tennessee Titans in the loss column of the AFC South standings.
It seemed comical to some, improbable to most. But they rolled with it, trusted Pederson and ended up in a winner-take-all game against visiting Tennessee that will decide the division title Saturday night.
"Coach Pederson said, 'I've got a crystal ball: This thing's going to come down to Week 18, and we're going to have a shot,'" quarterback Trevor Lawrence recalled. "We all jumped on board. We believed it. We kept putting in the work, and we're here now. We knew this was coming."
Pederson made one part clear: He didn't actually hold up a crystal ball as he prophetically stood in front of his team two months ago.
"I just had to make sure that our guys understood that everything was still in front of us," Pederson said. "We had to play one game at a time and just focus on that one week. If we did that, it would give us an opportunity to be in Week 18 for all the marbles."
Now, not only is Jacksonville in position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but it could prevent a division rival from making the postseason for the second time in as many years. The Jaguars stunned the Indianapolis Colts in the 2021 regular-season finale in Jacksonville.
Knocking out the slumping Titans (7-9) wouldn't be nearly as shocking, even though they're the two-time reigning division champions. Injury-riddled Tennessee has lost six games in a row and will start journeyman Joshua Dobbs at quarterback for the second straight week. Jacksonville (8-8), meanwhile, has won four straight and is a 6 1/2-point favorite at home, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
"The only thing that matters is moving forward," Titans defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons said. "And I mean all the games we've done lost, all the games we've done won, it don't matter. We have to go find a way to beat Jacksonville this Saturday."
Derrick Henry would likely be part of any winning formula for Tennessee.
The seventh-year running back comes into the game rested after the Titans scratched him before their home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. The move likely cost Henry a chance at a third NFL rushing title — he ranks third in the league with 1,429 yards, 19 behind the Cleveland Browns' Nick Chubb for second and 179 behind the Las Vegas Raiders' Josh Jacobs — but it could give him another happy homecoming.
Jacksonville is a short drive from his hometown of Yulee, Florida, and Henry typically plays well against the Jaguars, with a pair of 200-yard games and three 100-yard games on his resumé. He also tied an NFL record with a 99-yard run in 2018 against the Jaguars.
Henry, who turned 29 on Wednesday, said he's ready to get back to work.
"I don't feel 29," Henry said.
The Titans also expect to have pass rushers Denico Autry (biceps) and Simmons (ankle) together and at their healthiest in weeks. Autry is back after sitting out five of the team's six losses in the skid, and he'll be joined by Simmons, who rested against Dallas. Autry has a team-high eight sacks, with Simmons just behind at 7.5.
One of the games Autry missed was Jacksonsville's 36-22 win in Nashville on Dec. 11, when the Titans didn't sack Lawrence even once as the second-year quarterback threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns.
Jacksonville has allowed three points in each of its past two games, both against struggling quarterbacks, but the real turning point for the unit came at Tennessee in Week 14.
Henry was gouging Jacksonville on the ground — he had 96 yards in the first quarter alone — and had the Titans headed toward the red zone again when backup linebacker Shaq Quarterman hit Henry so hard near the sideline that the ball came loose. The Jaguars recovered, scored a touchdown six plays later to take their first lead, and never looked back.
"Definitely meant a lot to make a play," Quarterman said. "I have so much respect for Derrick. Growing up in (Jacksonville), I've seen him do great things, go off to college and do great things."