Behind the NFL powerful
OK, we talk around these parts frequently about the windows of opportunity that rookie contracts provide. Yes, with quarterbacks it's a huge piece because if you find a QB you think you can trust for the next three-plus years, you can splurge with that extra money on free agents and extensions.
But in the post-Dallas dynasty salary-cap era of the NFL, which is designed by rule to perpetuate mediocrity and a magnetic pull of every franchise to the middle, stringing together productive draft classes is the quickest spring board from terrible to competitive, even with the rules.
Jacksonville did it with a run of top-five picks that rebuilt a core. Of course, Jacksonville's extension offer last spring to Blake Bortles shuts that window as much as the run of picks from 2014 through 2017. (Look at this haul for a roster: 2014 - 4 starters in Bortles, Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Telvin Smith; 2015 - 3 starters in Dante Fowler, T.J. Weldon and A.J. Cann; 2016 - three stud starters in Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack and Yannick Ngakoue; 2017 - 4 starters in Fournette, Robinson, Dawuane Smoot ((no relation to Claude Henry)) and Dede Westbrook; and 2018 - 2 current rookie starters in LB Leon Jacobs and P Logan Cooke, but several contributors who will replace contract starters in future runs such as DT Taven Bryan, WR DJ Chark, and S Ronnie Harrison.)
But the mistake of marrying the wrong quarterback threatens all of that. And it certainly expedites the need to win because those 2016 draft picks are about to get paid.
With that in mind, I wanted to explore why the powerless five of one-win teams in Tuesday's power poll was this bad.
We can start with the quarterbacks, and that's a consensus topic that is easy.
Our bottom five teams Tuesday were Buffalo, Oakland, New York Giants, San Francisco and Arizona.
Those teams have used the following quarterbacking law firm of miscreants and malcontents of, and I swear this to be the case, of Josh Allen, Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, C.J. Boatyard, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford. (And to be fair, other than Peterman, we think the Jags would trade Bortles and his contract straight up for any of this cats. Seriously. How's this for a crazy Bortles stat: If Tom Brady threw an interception on his next 100 passes, his interception percentage would be the same as Bortles' is. Truly. Brady has thrown 167 picks on 9,055 attempts which is 1.8 percent of his passes; Bortles has thrown 72 picks on 2,478 attempts which is 2.9 percent of his passes.)
But beyond the quarterback - because remember good drafts lifted the Jags to a place where they were one or two plays in the second half from being the Super Bowl. A Super Bowl, by the way that, that was won by a back-up quarterback managing the best roster in the NFL that was built, you guessed it, with astute draft picks.
We always admit that quarterback is the most important position in sports. But the scouting and talent evaluation part of any NFL team may be the most important part of any organization in sports.
Let's look at the teams that stink and ponder that for a moment. To be fair, the 2018 classes are too new to fairly gauge, but the affordable core of any contender is filled with players under rookie contracts.
Buffalo's first-rounders from 2017-13: CB TreDavious White (played in every game and has a chance to be the first Bills first-rounder to make a Pro Bowl since Stephon Gilmore, who was picked in 2012); DE Shaq Lawson (12 starts in 26 career games and has 7 sacks); no first-rounder in 2015; WR Sammy Watkins (forever a tease but had his best days after leaving upstate New York); QB EJ Manuel (Wowser, maybe the worst NFL first-round QB pick since anyone Bueller? And to make matter worse, that was not a bad draft for the Bills but future starting players like Robert Woods, Kiko Alonso and Marquise Goodwin are making their marks elsewhere.). The Bills best picks are either no longer with the team or about to be free agents.
Oakland's first-rounders from 2017-13: CB Gareon Conley (played in 8 of 22 games); S Karl Joseph (who has played in only three games this season because of injury); WR Amari Cooper (great debut, traded to Dallas for 2019 first-rounder); Khalil Mack (home run draft pick who made two All-Pro teams, traded to Chicago before the season for a first-rounder in '19 and '20); D.J. Hayden (no longer with the Raiders, started 25 of 45 career games in four years in Oakland). That's two players who made Pro Bowls and neither is there any more and three secondary players who are little more than role players or sub-package personnel.
New York Giants' first-rounders from 2017-13: TE Evan Engram (a bona fide starter from day 1 but has battled injuries); CB Eli Apple (massive disappointment who was traded Tuesday to New Orleans for a fourth-rounder); T Ereck Flowers (the face of the troubles of the franchise, Flowers was a major bust who was picked inside the top 10 and was cut two weeks ago); WR Odell Beckham (home-run pick for sure with three Pro Bowl trips and a status as a sure-fire No 1 WR); T Justin Pugh (a starter from day one, but the free agent left for Arizona before the 2018 season). So the Giants turned the No. 9 pick in '15 (Flowers) and the No. 10 overall pick in '16 (Apple) into a fourth-rounder and future considerations. Any questions as to why this roster has massive holes and issues that are way beyond Eli Manning?
San Francisco's first-rounders from 2017-13: DE Solomon Thomas and ILB Reuben Foster (two dudes that were expected to reshape the 49ers defense have been OK starters but not much more); DE DeForest Buckner and G Joshua Garnett (Buckner has been one of the few bright spots on the defense but Garnett has battled foot issues and has started 11 games midway through his third season); DE Arik Amsted (another player that has made his way to the field, but for the 49ers to have spent four first-round picks on three defensive linemen and a inside linebacker, you would expect the defense to be a little better than 31st in the league in points per game allowed); DB Jimmie Ward (Ward has played a number of different secondary spots but still has only started roughly half his games played in San Fran); S Eric Reid (the only first-rounder in this span that made the Pro Bowl for the 49ers). Yes, that's five straight years of at least one first-round pick for the 49ers for a defense that has allowed at least 24 points in every game. Hmmmmmmm, someone in the scouting or the development department has some 'splainin' to do.
Arizona's first-rounders from 2017-13: LB Haason Reddick (six starts in 23 games played); DT Robert Nkemdiche (five starts in 23 career games); T D.J. Humphries (has battled injuries but ); DB Deone Bucannon (played multiple positions including LB, but has started only two of the team's seven games this year): G Jonathan Cooper (played two years in the desert before being traded to New England, which waived him in 2016; Cooper was cut by San Fran in September). Here's the thing that is tragic about the Cardinals' drafts: They had more success in round 3 than in round 1 with picks like Tyrann Mathieu, David Johnson, and John Brown. To be fair Budda Baker made an All-Pro team at safety as a second-rounder in 2017.
And yes, we know we are getting long-winded here, but this got us thinking. If the stinky teams developed the smell because of draft ineptitude, then the elite teams in the league developed their shine with draft excellence, right?
L.A. Rams' first-rounders from 2017-13: No first-rounder in 2017 because of the trade up to get Jared Goff in 2016 (but the Rams added starters WR Cooper Kupp and S John Johnson in round three). QB Jared Goff (certainly has the look of a franchise guy). RB Todd Gurley (Yeah, that's working out). T Greg Robinson and DT Aaron Donald (Robinson has been a monster bust and is with his third team in five seasons; Donald is arguably the best defensive player in the league and as loaded as the 2014 draft was, any reboot has Donald no worse than a top-two or top-three overall pick). WR Tavon Austin and LB Alec Ogletree (neither is with the Rams, but there is value in that because the Rams cut times with these players before offering monster second contracts to contributors).
Kansas City's first-rounders from 2017-13: QB Patrick Mahomes (Yeah that one's working out, and Kareem Hunt was a third-rounder in the same draft). No 2016 first-rounder but landed starters with DT Chris Jones in round 2, DB Eric Murray and WR Demarcus Robinson and round 4 and superstar Tyreek Hill in round 5. CB Marcus Peters (made two All-Pro teams before being traded to L.A. for draft picks). DE/LB Dee Ford (has 22.5 sacks, including 5.0 in seven games this year, despite missing most of 2017 and a slow start; Chiefs also landed two four-year starters on the offensive line in round six in Zach Fulton and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif)); T Eric Fisher (not exactly No. 1 overall value but has developed into a solid NFL starter; Travis Kielce in round 3 was a huge get too).
New Orleans' first-rounders from 2017-13 (and before we get started, the Saints may have drafted better over the last three years than anyone, including a couple of rookies from 2018 who are making an impact like Tre'Quan Smith who has become the team's No. 2 WR after being a third-rounder out of Central Florida): The Saints 2017 draft has a chance to be on the short list of better hauls in the modern era. CB Marshon Lattimore made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and T Ryan Ramczyk is an every-down starter. S Marcus Williams in round 2 is an every-down player. Round 3 produced Alex Anzalone is a part-time starter from round 3, and the Saints also added some dude named Alvin Kamara in round 3. How good was that haul? Well, if you reshuffle the 2017 draft and held it tomorrow, the Saints - and the Chiefs for that matter too - got two of the top 7 or 8 players in the entire draft. DT Sheldon Rankins is an every-down player, but round 2 delivered Michael Thomas, who is as good as any wide out not named Julio or Antonio in the league and S Vonn Bell. Two first-rounders in 2015 - T Andrus Peat and ILB Stephone Anthony - have been starters. WR Brandin Cooks (had success and was dealt for a No. 1 pick before signing the monster extension). S Kenny Vaccaro was a five-year starter before leaving for Tennessee and third-round Terron Armstead has been a fixture and signed a five-year extension.
The lone outlier is New England, which has not drafted well early but has drafted well in later rounds and added veteran pieces. All of that is possible because of the Brady-Belichick combination.
UnAmerican decision?
This is unAmerican, as in the conference view, not the patriotic one. And it could apply to UCF AD Danny White.
Danny White got his Golden Knights underroos in a bunch over the weekend because the College Football GameDay crew from ESPN cracked a couple of jokes about the UCF 20-game winning streak.
Somebody call the Wah-mbulance for Danny.
Yes, Danny, 20 in a row is awesome. Yes, one of them was Auburn in a bowl game. Yes, winning is important.
But so is perspective, and Danny and the Knights are never going to win the argument in the court of public opinion that they are better than a one-loss THE Ohio State or a one-loss Georgia for example. And they are never going to convince the fat cats to give another conference a seat at the table.
(That said, White and the UCF folks and the AAC folks are wicked shrewd for trying to make the case that the college football playoff should be about big six conferences with the American joining the other power players rather than trying to trump the merits of a "Group of Five" outlier. It never worked for Boise, and it would not have worked for Gonzaga in hoops if the March Madness bracket was not so dawg gone big.)
Well, here's a spin on the discussion for Danny.
Yes, that's a Massachusetts high school football team that finished the season 0-7 and made the playoffs. And no this was not a situation like we have had in previous instances that are similar to this when a terrible team in a four-team region makes the field because each region gets four bids.
Nope this is a Massachusetts high school team that went bagel-and-7 and made it over a few teams that went 1-6 because the playoff invites are issued on a mathematical formula. Unlike the shadows of the college football playoff committee, the difference in this process is transparency.
Anyhoo, here's the formula, from the story in USAToday: "Teams get 10 points for a win over a team in their division or lower and 12 points for a win over a team in a higher division or Division 1. That's half of the power rating formula ('own value'). The second half of the equation, 'opponents value,' rewards strength of schedule. Teams get 3 points for every win by an opponent they defeated, 1 point for every win by an opponent they lost to within their own division or lower, and 1.2 points for every win by an opponent they lost to in a higher division. These two numbers are added, then divided by the number of games played to get a team's final power rating."
And knowing the rules going in and what must be accomplished allows teams not to have a bitter taste in their mouth with a statistical oddity of 0-7 making it to the postseason over 1-6 is clear to those involved.
From the YahooSports.com story: "John Cacace, coach of the outside-looking-in Watertown, told the Globe he had no hard feelings. "I think the system is terrific," he said. "Is it ideal? Is it perfect? No. But I like this system. It allows teams to get in, to get a chance. Division 5 North is down this year, that's just what it is. I don't think you need to make changes. Every few years, you might have an anomaly."
Sometimes crooked math adds up perfectly because not all undefeated - or completely defeated for that matter - are created equally.
Boston Red Sox's Eduardo Nunez reacts as he runs the bases after hitting a three-run home run during the seventh inning of Game 1 of the World Series baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018, in Boston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Game 1 flop
Where do we start with the Dodgers' shortcomings in Tuesday's Game 1?
We could start with Clayton Kershaw, who allowed five runs in four innings before getting chased. It was eighth career playoff start in which Kershaw - no relation to country music star Sammy Kershaw - allowed five or more runs, and that's the most such starts in postseason history. For a startling comparison: Kershaw has allowed five or more runs in 9 percent of his regular-season starts and in more than 35 percent of his playoff starts.
We could start with the small mistakes, such as Yaisel Puig throwing through the cut-off man with ZERO to get Mookie Betts. The silly/selfish decision allowed Andrew Benintendi to take second and score on a J.D. Martinez single.
We could point to the deliberate and persistent Boston approach. We have said frequently that the football teams that have a chance to be truly special is when one of two or three best players is also your hardest worker. Think Al Wilson back in the day. Think Tebow back in the day. Think Cam Newton back in the day. Think of what Brady does these days. There are a slew of these examples.
But Boston is a different version of that. This is the most complete roster in the big leagues and they have routinely done all the little things along the way. Hitting with two outs? Check. Of Boston's 64 runs scored in the playoffs, half of those have come with two outs. Hustling? Check. Players running out potential double-play ground balls and giving the Red Sox an extra at-bat produced two runs. Little things like stealing a base or even looking to bunt against the shift. Check and check. (Side note: Betts stealing second in the first enacted a free Taco Bell taco for everyone who shows up at their neighborhood Taco Bell on Nov. 1 from 2-6 p.m.)
And we will point to Alex Cora completely housing Dave Roberts, who made more mistakes than a newborn's parents. Why start Kershaw? If you start Wood or Walker Buehler you can give the ball to Kershaw tonight. Nope, Kershaw struggles and you are going with Ryu, who has been great at home and sketchy on the road. Plus, the 1-0 cushion takes all the pressure off David Price, who has as many skeletons in his postseason closet as Kershaw does.
Roberts also out-managed himself multiple times.
His cute - too cure by half? - all-right-handed lineup against Boston lefty Chris Sale put David Freese at first base, a position he is not overly comfortable playing. He botched a couple of foul pops - including one that game Mookie Betts an extra life in his lead-off at-bat that because a single, a steal and a run - and was not prepared to complete big-time stretches on those double play throws.
Roberts also moved his pieces after the all-righty lineup so quickly, he was forced to leave Cody Bellinger in to face Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who got Bellinger on a lazy fly ball to center.
And maybe most egregious was Roberts pulling Pedro Baez, who was blowing smoke and already had two Ks in the inning, for soft-serve Alex Wood for a lefty-on-lefty at-bat. Alex Cora countered with Eduardo Nunez, who delivered a three-run homer that sent all of us to bed.
Goodnight, and Boston beat the Dodgers 8-4 at almost every level. Game 2 is tonight, and the numbers at stake are clear. Teams who take a 2-0 lead at home in the World Series have won 82 percent of the time.
This and that
- You know the drill. TFP ace columnist Mark Wiedmer writes on college hoops and we're reading Weeds on college hoops. As Uncle Buck said, "It's in the books."
- Game 1 TV numbers will be interesting considering the duration of Monday's game and little more than intermediate and sporadic drama. Plus, these numbers show a game that was at times slow and often stagnantly standing around: Game time of 3:52; 12 pitchers, 24 position players, 308 pitches (198 of them strikes) with 24 strikeouts and eight walks.
- Speaking of TV, here's an interesting list of TV sports 'talk shows' and their numbers from Monday. (Visor tip to Ryan Glasspiegel - @sportsrapport - for the list.) Get Up - 358K; First Take - 533K; NFL Live - 429K; High Noon - 469K; Highly Questionable - 471K; Around the Horn - 553K; Pardon the Interruption - 863K; and on FS1 First Things First - 92K; Undisputed - 188K; Herd - 124K.
- Speaking of interesting twists loosely associated with TV, here's Amy Schemer taking a stand (or is it taking a kneel) with Colin Kaepernick. Ms. Schumer has said she told her reps she would not do a Super Bowl ad because of the ongoing flap with Kaepernick. Here's Schumer's complete Instagram post: "Friday thought. I wonder why more white players aren't kneeling. Once you witness the truly deep inequality and endless racism people of color face in our country, not to mention the police brutality and murders. Why not kneel next to your brothers? Otherwise how are you not complicit? I think it would be cool if @maroon5 backed out of super bowl like @badgalriri Did. I personally told my reps I wouldn't do a Super Bowl commercial this year. I know it must sound like a privilege ass sacrifice but it's all i got. Hitting the nfl with the advertisers is the only way to really hurt them. I know opposing the nfl is like opposing the nra. Very tough, but don't you want to be proud of how you're living? Stand up for your brothers and sisters of color. And the hottest thing a guy can do is get down on one knee. Not to propose but to reject the treatment of his teammates by this country. Anyone who says its disrespectful to our military please read up on the fact that a lot of veterans are proud of what @kaepernick7 is doing and fully support him. What are your thoughts?"
- We all are pointing to the offensive boom in the NFL and how that has helped steady declining TV numbers. Know who else is following that lead? The NBA has 20 teams averaging more than 110 points per game. And as amazing as that stat is, how about this one: Zach Lavine is averaging 32.3 points per game on 61.8/45.0/83.3 shooting splits.
- OK, we are confused here. According to this excellent story from TFP BID-ness editor Dave Flessner (Side note: The spell-correct for Flessner is "Fleshier," so there's that) Krystal is introducing Southern-inspired maple bourbon milkshake next week. Hmmmmmm. Somebody simply missed the memo and the order of things, apparently. Because everyone knows that you get your fill of liquor drinks BEFORE getting a sackful of Krystals, not during or after. C'mon people. It's science.
Today's question
Which way Wednesday:
Which NFL job is more important: Head coach or person in charge of the draft?
Which way would you go to for your first big purchase to spend some of that $514-plus-million buyout from Tuesday's Power Ball, if you were the person in South Carolina holding that ticket?
On this day in 1959, Wilt made his debut. He was the highest-paid player in the league at $30,000 per year. He was worth it, considering he went for 37.6 points and 27.0 rebounds per night. Dear Lord.
Today is National Bologna Day. Bologna, friend or foe.
Today was Black Thursday in 1929, which started the Great Depression and Bloody Friday, which in 2008 saw markets lose more than 10 percent worldwide.
UN was founded today in 1945.
Kevin Kline is 71 today. Rushmore of Kevins. Go.