What if this time is different?
There is an assumption that the 2020 presidential election will be business as usual: Donald Trump will run on the economy, social issues and immigration, and the Democratic candidate will run on income inequality, Democratic socialism and Trump's character - the 2020 version of right-left U.S. politics.
But I believe there's a sleeper issue out there that could force its way into the election. What if Mother Nature is on the ballot?
What if all the extreme weather this year - linked to climate change - gets even worse and more costly? What if the big 2020 issue is not left-right - but hot-cold or wet-dry? What if the big 2020 issue is not "Who lost Russia?" or "Who lost North Korea?" but "Who lost planet Earth?"
We're talking about the natural world, so one has to be cautious. But if you look at all the destructive extreme weather buffeting the world this summer alone, it's as if Mother Nature were saying to us: "Oh, you didn't notice me tapping on your shoulder these past few years? OK. Well, how about a little fire, Scarecrow?"
Democrats have been casting about for a big idea to propel them in 2020. My free advice: If Democratic socialism or Democratic Trotskyism or abolishing ICE - the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency - is what will get you elected as a Democrat in your district in 2018, go for it. The Democrats must take the House back. But Trump would feast on those issues in a national election.
However, if in 2020 we're in the midst of even more damaging droughts and storms than we are today, Democrats may be able to run against Trump's make-America-polluted-again environmental strategy and his refusal to either acknowledge the threat of climate change or seize the incredible opportunity it offers America to become richer, healthier, more secure and more respected by leading the world in clean energy technologies.
Sure, Trump will sneer that "green" is girlyman, uneconomic, unpatriotic and vaguely French. But Democrats can easily counter that green is globally strategic, locally profitable and working class - green is the new red, white and blue.
The Democratic strategy should be built around putting together the performance standards, research and carbon pricing to achieve what Energy Innovation CEO Hal Harvey calls "the four zeros." These are, Harvey explains:
1. "A zero-carbon grid. Right now, Republican states like Texas and Wyoming dominate the U.S. wind industry and are reaping most of the jobs and environmental benefits. That should go national.
2. Zero-emission vehicles. When you combine a zero-carbon grid with electric vehicles, bingo, you have zero-carbon transportation.
3. Zero-net energy buildings. What if you could build a well-insulated home, put today's inexpensive solar panels on the roof and, over the course of a year, produce as much energy as you consume? Fantastical? No. It's now the law in Santa Monica, and getting most of the way there is already feasible - and cost-effective - throughout the country.
4. Zero-waste manufacturing. New techniques in manufacturing, such as 3D printing or advanced chemistry, can slash waste - and waste is a tax on both the budget and the earth."
Now that's a platform worth running on, and it's one that can do what Democrats need most: make them the party of strengthening the working class and American security.
Clean power, clean cars, clean manufacturing and efficient buildings make everything we want to achieve in our society easier. They can lower our health care costs, cut heating bills for the poor, drive 21st-century innovation, foster decent jobs, mitigate climate change, create more competitive export industries, weaken petro-dictators - and enhance U.S. national security and moral leadership.
Let Trump fight that idea. If Mother Nature keeps on this destructive track into 2020, well, Trump's favorite mantra about strong women, "Lock her up," will look awfully silly.
The New York Times