Many Americans remember the days when Fidel Castro appeared with regularity at public venues to inveigh against the United States. Those appearances occurred over a period that spanned nearly half a century, slowed and then abruptly stopped when the aging Cuban revolutionary had emergency surgery in 2006. Now, it's almost like old times. After four years of self-imposed exile, Mr. Castro is back in the limelight. What it means is difficult to ascertain
Within the last fortnight, the former Cuban president has appeared at a Foreign Ministry meeting, visited a science think tank, been interviewed on a current affairs program and attended a dolphin show at the national aquarium. The only common denominators to the public appearances are that he appeared in good health and that he's still taking potshots at the United States.
Mr. Castro's years out of the spotlight fueled speculation that he was seriously ill and unable to participate in political life. His recent activity proves that he is alert and able to converse sensibly on a variety of topics. True to form, he used the appearances to gig the United States, predicting that nuclear war between Israel and the United States and Iran or the United States and North Korea is inevitable.
Such predictions have to be taken with a grain of salt. Mr. Castro predicted earlier that a nuclear war between Iran and the United States would erupt during the recently concluded World Cup. It didn't. Mr. Castro later said his prediction was in error, saying he got faulty information from the Foreign Ministry.
Though it is impossible to say with certainty why Fidel Castro chose to re-enter public life now, there is some agreement that it somehow connected to shoring up the power and prestige of his brother Raul, who replaced Fidel as president. Raul, by any measure, is going through a rough patch.
Restive Cubans are increasingly worried about severe economic problems that Raul's government has been unable to address. They question, too, Raul's ability to root out almost endemic corruption in Cuba's bureaucracy and his handling of a hunger strike by jailed political dissidents. Though Fidel did not address those issues directly, he obviously hopes his public appearances will assure Cubans that he remains a behind-the-scenes power in government and that he supports his brother's policies.
That might not matter. Many Cubans seemed dismissive of the old lion, strongly suggesting that his influence is on the wane. If true, that changes the Cuba's domestic political dynamic. What might result in a world in which Fidel Castro is a bit player rather than a major player is impossible to predict. Whatever does emerge, though, likely will bring major change to hemispheric and international diplomacy.