Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota talks during a news conference prior to the announcement of the Heisman Trophy winner, Saturday, Dec. 13, 2014, in New York.Longtime ESPN analyst Mel Kiper is projecting Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston and Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota as the top two picks in the 2015 NFL draft, a three-day event that begins April 30.
That does not mean Kiper is predicting overnight success for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans, who possess the top two picks.
"I don't think there are any franchise quarterbacks this year," Kiper said in a recent conference call. "I thought last year that Jameis Winston would be when he was doing great. I even said he could have been the No. 1 pick over (South Carolina's Jadeveon) Clowney had he been eligible as a redshirt freshman, but you saw this past season that he was more inconsistent, made some bad reads and had some inaccurate throws.
"His touchdown-to-interception ratio was way, way down from what it was last year. He had some off-the-field issues, so he's not a franchise guy anymore."
Despite Winston's shakier sophomore season, Kiper actually elevated the 6-foot-4, 232-pounder in the mock draft he released last Thursday. Kiper described Winston as the "most advanced on-field quarterback" in this draft.
ESPN draft analyst Mel KiperThe 6-4, 215-pound Mariota, whose Ducks whipped FSU 59-20 on New Year's Day in the Rose Bowl but lost Jan. 12 to Ohio State in the championship game of the four-team playoff, had been Kiper's top overall projection this past fall. Kiper believes the Titans would take a quarterback at the second spot due to "considerable questions" about Zach Mettenberger's ceiling.
"Mariota is a quarterback with a lot of talent and ability, especially in terms of running with the football and making any throw you want him to make," Kiper said. "Now, is he as precise as you'll need to be coming out of an offense that was throwing into huge windows and to guys wide open? In the NFL, you've got to be precise, and that's the question with Mariota."
Kiper is pegging Southern California defensive end Leonard Williams third to Jacksonville, Alabama receiver Amari Cooper fourth to Oakland, Nebraska defensive end Randy Gregory fifth to Washington, Missouri defensive end Shane Ray sixth to the New York Jets, Alabama safety Landon Collins seventh to Chicago and Florida defensive end Dante Fowler eighth to Atlanta.
Should Cooper get selected in the top five, he would be the highest-picked receiver in Crimson Tide history. Julio Jones went sixth overall to Atlanta in the 2011 draft.
"If he drops, it's only going to be because he's not 6-3 or 6-4," Kiper said. "He's not Julio Jones or A.J. Green. I've seen him compared to Marvin Harrison, who had a great career at Syracuse and had a heck of a career in the NFL.
"If he's like Marvin Harrison, the team that drafts him is going to be very happy."
Kiper expects either UCLA's Brett Hundley or Baylor's Bryce Petty to be the third quarterback taken further down the line and certainly not in round one. As for Winston and Mariota, he foresees the same unfair scrutiny that has accompanied recent first-round quarterbacks.
"If you let them evolve and not write them off as busts early on, then you're fine," Kiper said. "Aaron Rodgers sat for four full seasons, but that is never going to happen again. In this league right now, these quarterbacks are all forced in there.
"They're evaluated, scrutinized, and then they're treated like they're veterans, which I think is destroying a lot of these guys before their careers ever have a chance to get going."
Contact David Paschall at dpaschall@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6524.