Game 1 statement
OK, any questions about who has the two-headed monster?
The Lakers got dominant performances from LeBron and AD to snatch Game 1 and take the early lead in the NBA Finals.
Some numbers of note:
> Bam Adebayo, who was injured, had arguably his worst game the postseason, and simply put the Heat can not win if Bam is on the floor for less than 30 minutes and goes 8-4-0 in points-boards-assists on 2-of-8 shooting after leading the Heat in scoring, rebounding, assists and shooting percentage in the Eastern Conference Finals;
> Miami is going to have a hard time stretching this series beyond five games if they are not committed to getting to the line more than 14 times. That number may seem insignificant, but know this: When you go to the basket, you go to the line and the more physical team wins more often;
> Tyler Herro had an undeniable playoff moment that jumpstarted the legend of A Bucket on South Beach for the former UK star. Well, that story got it's opposite ending Wednesday. Tyler was -35 in plus/minus, which is an analytic that measures the score of the game during a player's time on the floor;
> If the Lakers can get 59 points from LeBron and AD and 57 from everyone else, well, wrap this puppy and start the "What a fourth title means for LeBron" talk. Side note: Everyone around these parts knows I am rooting or LeBron, but in truth, I am not as excited for the legacy talk after this thing, win or lose.
Braves prevail - finally
Whew. Who else was living and dying on almost every pitch in the Braves' marathon Game 1 win over the Reds?
That was tense. Some observations, and feel free to share yours, friends.
The Braves' postseason stay will be brief if this bunch does not figure out a way to score guys from third with less than two outs. The Braves were the worst in baseball at it this season - around 43 percent of the time they brought in a runner from third with less than two outs - and had a historical bad eight sacrifice flies all season. Egad. (Insert old guy rant about station-to-station baseball and moving runners and doing the little things. And STAY off my porch. Dang teenagers.)
Second, buckle up for some runs today, if I had to guess. The tax on the bullpens will be clear. Uh-oh, research alert: In the last three postseason, how about this nugget for the importance of rest for relievers? MLB relievers working on zero-days rest had a 4.72 ERA over 129.1 IP; MLB relievers working on one-days rest had a 2.61 over 152 innings. Hmmmmmmm. What's the over, Rocco?
Speaking of relievers, wow, that Braves 'pen made big pitch after big pitch after big pitch.
Freddie Freeman is a dude. That is all.
And on the other end of the spectrum, Alex Rodriguez was dreadful during that Braves game. DEEE-readful.
Thoughts? (Also, Game 2 is today a little after 12 p.m., so it likely will cut into some of Press Row. So there's that.)
Fab 4 picks
OK, one of the classic Seinfeld episodes is the "Even Steven" episode in which Jerry realizes he always breaks even.
It was comedy gold. Gold, Jerry.
It is entertainment hunting Hades. Hades, Jerry.
(Side note: Some of you have heard my rant, but in my Seventh Circle of Dante's Inferno, the only job is moving furniture, the only drink is hot tequila, the only food is warm cole slaw served by barefooted clowns. Any questions?)
Well, after bouncing to this win and this bad beat, we adjusted a bit. (Side note, part II: Gang, how many bad scenarios can we absorb? Let's review last week alone: UTSA is up double digits early before losing its running QB to injury before failing to cover when MTSU scored a TD with 64 seconds left. Alabama was rolling before pulling the plug, and maybe we should have accounted for a little of that.
Add that to the complete unknowns that handicappers have could have never imagined from the wide array of ways teams are disclosing Corona details to how much practice time - or even or physical practices may be - is missed and by whom.
And there have been no out-of-conference cupcakes to cash, especially for SEC powerhouses.
But what can you do, right? We make the most of it and follow the basic premise of every football season: Pickers gotta pick. (With that, here's Jason Isbell with "Cover Me Up" live from the Ryman. Good times. Strike that. Great times.)
To the picks
North Dakota State minus-23 Central Arkansas. OK, North Dakota State is not your ordinary FCS team. Not by a long shot. And the green-and-gold clad powerhouse also has a first-round NFL quarterback running around back there. Still, 23 seems like a lot. I know. It does. It is. But (Yes, Spy, when I'm around there is always a a but - hey wait) the Bison, who have won something like 18 straight FCS titles, are in an amazingly unique situation in an amazingly unique season. NDSU plays this one game - at home, with as many as 8,200 fans in attendance that will sound like 82,000 - before late February. One game. All the preparation of the last month for this game. One final salute to Trey Lance, the star QB who is third on Todd McShay's big board behind a couple of dudes named Lawrence and Fields for the 2021 draft. Cue the Little Giants. One time. This one time. NDSU 65, Central Arkansas 10.
Clemson-Virgina over 55. The four-TD line is heavy, mainly because the Cavs' offense carved up a Duke team that had been pretty stout defensively. But the Tigers are on a different level than every other ACC team, regardless of jersey color or locale. And, after a couple of relatively quiet weeks - his stats are amazingly efficient but rather subdued because of two blowouts - Trevor Lawrence's Heisman campaign needs a boost. He gets it Saturday
North Texas minus-1.5 over Southern Miss. Have we found our Louisville of 2018 and our Akron of 2019 (Sorry Coach Arth nothin' but love for you my man)? Maybe, just maybe. USM is bagel-and-3 against the number with an average margin of defeat of 23 points. Dance with who brung you friends. And keep dancin' till the music stops.
Air Force plus-7 over Navy. Similar logic for North Dakota State, and yes for those of you thinking, "Hey what about teams that have already played a game and working through the rust" well, you have a point. Here are some counterpoints. In the last 11 games between the military academies, the underdog has covered 10 times. Hmmmmmm. Air Force plays two games - Saturday against the Middies and a month later vs. Army - so you think they are spending any time getting ready for the triple option? Hmmmmmmmmm, again.
Kansas State minus-2.5 Texas Tech. How does Texas Tech come of the deck after that kind of meltdown. The Red Raiders, who remember, surrendered 600-plus yards to Houston Baptist, were up 15 over hated Texas with three minutes left and crumbled like a five-day old muffin. It's a gut-punch that will linger - and maybe beyond Saturday.
Tennessee-Missouri over 48.5. Liked what I saw from Missouri's running back against a super Alabama bunch. I think Tennessee is going to be better Saturday offensively than it was against South Carolina. That double-digit line feels a little risky for me, but I certainly see this game played north of 28 for each team.
Central Florida minus-20.5 over Tulsa. Got a little bit of a sneaky, fishy feeling about this, and hear me out. UCF has its collective eye on a spot in the playoff. Truly. And why not in this craziest of all crazy seasons. Yes, last week's 51-28 win over East Carolina was closer than Vegas thought. But go behind the numbers: After ECU scored first, UCF rolled off 41 in a row and led 41-7 midway through the third quarter before a series of cosmetic scores. And you have to believe that UCF knows that it needs blowouts to craft a résumé worthy of consideration.
Last week: 3-3 (50 percent against the spread)
This season: 11-11 (50 percent against the spread)
This and that
- You know the rules, and here's Paschall's picks for the week, which has decidedly more SEC flavor than mine, and the rest of the rules we must follow.
- My A2 column, which expounds on the excellent discussion we had about the debate debacle from Tuesday. It also will generate some fun mailbag stuff Friday. #GoodTimes. (Side question: Good Times, pre-James' death was great. Post-James was underwhelming. Yes, those are statements not questions. This is a question: Which TV character's death changed the TV show the most? "Dallas" is in that conversation, because the season that Bobby left, but the show struggled and had to write his death into a dream sequence from Pam the following season was the death knell of one of the era's iconic show. Others? Rayna dying in the car crash effectively killed Nashville too.)
- Speaking of the bleep show that debate was, and a lot of us agree that unless they can change the format and enforce the rules that the next two should be cancelled. Well, considering that more than 73 million Americans watched that two-hour train wreck, there will assuredly be a second and third installment.
- Many congrats to the core group of the Signal Mountain boys' golf team, which capped its third straight state title Wednesday. I know most of those kids and their families and they all deserve a tip of the visor for a great run. Kudos.
Today's questions
OK, NBA Finals picks: Who you got and in how many?
If you are still alive in the Intimidator Pool, remember to send your picks in gang.
As for this day, Oct. 1, Happy birthday to Jimmy Carter, a truly kind man, that was a better president than most will recall. Dude dealt with some serious crises in his days too. He's 96.
Henry Ford introduced the Model T on this day in 1908.
Wow, the Thrilla in Manilla was on this day in 1975. The Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson debuted on this day in 1962.
Speaking of President Carter, and following off of the Rushmore of Fred earlier this week, what are the Rushmore of names that can end in y or ie that are suitable for a grown man? I think Jimmy works. Jury's out on Freddy. And at some point, doesn't every Timmy have to chop the second syllable?
Discuss, and remember the mailbag.