NFL power poll
OK, we are all, adjusting to a football season like we have never seen.
Yes, the corona has made this unpredictably predictable in that nothing can surprise us. A slew of injuries? Sure. Drew Brees is washed? OK. The Bears are 3-and-bagel. Of course they are. Cam Newton is wearing those postgame hats for Belichick's Pats? Naturally.
The overarching trend of the first three weeks of the NFL season center on offensive numbers surging to unexpected places. Unexpected in that the 'over' - the bet in Vegas on the combined total number of points scored - is 29-19 and Vegas continues to try to elevate the totals to match the trend.
But why?
Is it the lack of preparation in terms of tackling? I think that's part of it.
Is it the lack of crowds, so offenses can hear at-line adjustments and audibles - never mind use hard counts for quick and easy third-down conversions - and home-standing defenses do not get the energy and the false starts? In some ways.
Is it the extreme improvements of young QB play? In a lot of ways <- THIS.
And it's multifaceted. Young quarterbacks are better and better trained. High school offenses and 7-on-7s focus on pass-happy schemes and advancements. (While also limiting tackling and physicality in some unintended ways.) College systems and philosophies being adopted by new NFL offensive minds and utilized instead of the traditional 2-1 personnel, which allows for easier transitions for the Mahomes, the Jacksons, the Wilsons the Murrays, the Allens and so many others who are years in the three-plus-wide, shotgun style.
But it's clear that a) way more points that expected are being scored (if you bet $100 entertainment duckets on the over so far in the NFL, you'd be up more than $800); b) trying to win without better than good QB play is more difficult than ever.
(Side note: And you want to know something else? While the offensive surges in the spread-it-and-sling-it style and the implications of a copycat league - yes, some team is going to call Mike Leach in the offseason - will allow for the traditional teams to shift back to a newness that brings an inherent advantage of being different in terms of preparation and more physical. Somewhere Aaron Rodgers smiles.)
To the Power Poll
Kansas City (3-0). Any questions? After trashing the Ravens on a Monday night game that was nothing close to advertised and was highlighted by Patrick Mahomes calling out the MNF crew for calling her son Pat too often, the Chiefs are the class of the league and of social media helicopter parents. That said, I do have a question that is impossible to answer right now, but worth following: What's Patrick Mahomes' ceiling, because his skill set is Rodgers-esque and his surrounding cast from coaches to crews could be Patriots-like? So what's the baseline for success considering he already has a Super Bowl title and an MVP, signed in KC through 2031 and just turned 25?
Green Bay. It's impossible for me to believe the Packers wasted a first-round pick on a developmental quarterback just to motivate Aaron Rodgers to return to his MVP-levels of play. But it certainly is a wonderful by-product gift for Packers fans as well as football viewers in general, because Rodgers has blended the mental with the physical and is playing at an elite, all-time level. He is a surgeon with a shot gun. An assassin with an AK. A guru with a glock. A maestro with a machine gun. A ninja with a 9. A you get the idea.
Seattle. How badly is running back Chris Carson hurt? That's important. But Russell Wilson's record-setting, three-game start has been eye-popping. At this pace, Wilson will throw 74 TD passes this year. Yes, 74. But if the Seahawks defense keeps putting Wilson in a place to need 4-plus TD passes a game, well, that's a house of cards longterm.
Pittsburgh. The Steelers will challenge the dynamic and with that defense - built with a fast and ferocious back eight - it is in a unique and desirable position that the Steelers can win games against almost anyone while scoring 24 points.
Tennessee Titans. Would the 3-0 Titans be favored over the 2-1 Baltimore Ravens if those teams played Sunday? Doubt it, but this is an important time to remind everyone that the numbers Vegas sets is about generating bets on each side rather than predicting final scores. Here's a statement that until Lamar Jackson gets more consistent throwing the football down the field in big games, you have to prefer these Titans over the Ravens, no?
Powerless
Atlanta. Gross. Simply gross. And as TFP ace sports columnist Mark Wiedmer wrote this morning, Dan Quinn needs to go the way of busy signals, Blockbusters and Beta Max. It's past time. There are a lot of factors in this for sure, but when the culture shifts to a place where the players, the fans and the staff expect the worst, then leadership has to be overhauled. Now. https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/sports/columns/story/2020/sep/28/wiedmer-whfalcons-blank-waiting-on/533108/
Houston. How poorly run is a franchise that even with a top-five NFL QB, the team is winless and hopeless and downright lost? Well, that's what happens when a mediocre coach (Bill O'Brien) is allowed to be a terrible GM (Bill O'Brien).
Minnesota. Yes, Denver is winless too - so are the once-tied Cincy and Philly - but those teams are without Sunday night celebrations because of injuries and youth and the combinations of such. Minnesota? Well, when you jettison your best WR (sorry Adam Thielen, but Stefan Diggs is a better player) and your best defensive end (Everson Griffen) and get nothing in return, well, there you go. It's made worse when you are counting on Kirk Cousins to be elite.
New York Giants. Why, in this day and age, do we wonder about the supporting cast of quarterbacks? Because as the Giants look hopeless and have little reason to be optimistic about scoring points when your best running back is either going to be Wayne Gallman or retread DeVonta Freeman and the WR1 looks to be Darius Slayton, who was not even WR1 during his time at Auburn. And here come the rationalizations about, "It's unfair to judge Daniel Jones without a full compliment of weapons." Hog wash. Franchise QBs keep you in games and find ways to score points regardless of the cast. We could see it with Matt Ryan during the early struggles in Atlanta. You see it with Watson in Houston. We watched it with Cam Newton - when he was healthy - at Auburn and in Carolina. Matt Stafford has crafted a fringe Hall of Fame résumé with a collection fo stiffs in Detroit.
New York Jets. Bagel-and-3. This is what happens when the worst roster in the NFL meets the worst coach in the NFL. If I set the over/under at 1.5 on Jets wins, where do you go with that? I think over is a fool's bet, and when we get to the Intimidator Pool, well, whomever the Jets are playing is a pretty popular choice until they start getting repetitive.
MLB playoff projections
Now is a good time to remember a good friend in a former life named Mike, who ran a bar in Smyrna, and was there when we hatched the philosophy of not sweating baseball and talking in meaningful terms until the 'er' months.
We are neck deep in the 'er' months as the playoffs start today and the calendar flips to October on Thursday.
Let's round the bases with some stats and some observations before handicapping these postseasons:
> From the Twitter feed of Braves beat writer Dave O'Brien of The Athletic - and with a tip of the visor to 5-at-10 regular Ron, who chastised me during the summer for overreacting to Freddie Freeman's slow start: After battling the Corona, Freeman hit .200 (10-for-50) with two homers through 15 games. After that, he hit .384 with 11 homers, 44 RBIs, a .500 OBP and 1.220 OPS. The lesson? Do not worry until the 'er' months.
> The Yankees' overall mood swings make them the most intriguing postseason team. (Yes, they were going to be the most covered postseason team because they are in NYC, but now it's actually true.) They have a star-studded line-up. They have the first player in the modern era to win a batting title in each league. (Side question: Is there a more misleading term than the 'modern-era' in baseball, because that references everything post-1900? In fact, that the MLB views 1905 as part of the modern era explains so many of its struggles in the truly modern age of short-attention-span theater.) They have the best starting pitcher in the game. But they make a teenage girl look emotionally stable and consistent. Picture this: The Yankees had a 10-game win streak and a stretch of losing nine of 10. With the shortness of the season and the 2.7 multiplier because of the shortened seasons, that works to a comparable to a 27-game winning streak and losing 24 of 27. In the same season.
> In an incredible turn of events, the Marlins lost two games in September - ah the 'er' months - by 15 or more runs: A 29-9 loss to the Braves and a 15-0 shellacking to the Pats. The Athletic's Jayson Stark noted that Miami now becomes the first MLB playoff team in history (modern and prehistoric eras) to get to the dance with that distinction.
So there's that. Baseball, right? Especially in the 'er' months.
Which leads us to trying to project these playoffs. No easy task for sure.
In this first round, well, the simply truth is teams with a legit ace have a huge advantage. Huge. Because Game 1 is so important.
The AL starts today, and here's the schedule. Yeah, that's a lot of baseball.
I'll take the Twins, White Sox, Rays and Yankees in round 1. In the NL, give me Dodgers, Padres and Cubs in the other three series.
As for the Braves, well, who knows really? The Reds are a terrible draw considering their strength - great starting pitching - is the most important piece to playoff success, especially in a three-game series.
I'm going Braves, but I'm pretty sure that's a heart pick more than a hearty pick.
Giddy-up.
SEC changes
LSU coach Ed Oregon vowed to fix the Tigers issues. Not sure he can since a lot of those issues were created by the void left by an extremely talented roster that delivered a national title to Red Stick and a lot of that roster is playing on Sundays now.
UT coach Jeremy Pruitt vowed to work to improve the Vols' dreadful showing on third down in Saturday's in over South Carolina. (Here's more from TFP college football guru David Paschall.)
And Georgia almost assuredly will change its offensive plan after a disastrous first half in Arkansas that allowed the talentless Hogs to take a 7-5 lead into the intermission. It was not pretty nor was it for the faint of heart Bulldogs Backers.
But is that unknown at the game's most important position a positive, especially considering the variety of genres Georgia can trot out Saturday night against Auburn.
Yes, D'wan Mathis was less than good Saturday. Heck, he was less than average, and if you wanted to say he was less than bad, I'm not going to argue. But dude has jets and dude started week 1.
Stetson Bennett, quarterback at law, was fine in relief. He's a hybrid - throws it a little, willing to run it a little - and the offense responded.
Then, with the news of JT Daniels getting cleared to play after an offseason knee injury, throw in the USC transfer, who is the prototypical, drop-back dude with the big arm and the traditional pedigree of five-star QBs Georgia has become accustomed.
Which leaves a couple of talking points:
First, Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, as Paschall tells us here, does think the unknown QB plan is an edge. (Side question: With the knowledge that Georgia could out Jimmy-and-Joe Arkansas with me at QB, could this been an elaborate shell game from Kirby? I don't think so, but the Georgia coach is certainly a Smart man.)
Second, and this will be a familiar refrain that is both rhetorical in its nature and painful in its directness for the Alejandros and the Jules and the rest of our friends who are Georgia supporters.
What does this team look like if a) Jamie Newman had not opted out, and even bigger picture, b) Justin Fields was still in the 706?
Hmmmmmmmmmm.
(Also, while we're asking questions that will never be answered, is anyone surprised that Daniels was cleared within hours of a bona fide QB quandary in Athens?)
This and that
- Mike Norvell is returning to FSU practice today after missing last week's debacle with the Corona. No word whether his players are actually going to 'show' up to get some work done or not.
- You know the rules. Here's Paschall - yes he wrote like a billion words for today's paper - on Alabama being Alabama.
- Here's today's A2 column in preparation for tonight's debate.
- In the fallout of the variations of the phrase 'Black lives matter' comes this story of an Illinois State coach resigning after a hubbub about the phrase and the coach putting a sign on his door that read, "All Lives Matter to Our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ."
- Yes, I promised Intimidator Pool updates and they are coming before lunch. Hey, sue me. The a.m. hours can get cramped without even trying these days.
- Interesting story here about a former financial backer suing Tony Finau for $16 million. While that number seems astronomical, the underbelly of the non-silver spoon golfers who try to make it on the PGA Tour often comes with a collection of varying levels of sugar daddies and money men who are paying expenses for a long-term investment on future earnings and payouts.
Today's questions
True or false, it's Tuesday.
True or false, Patrick Mahomes will be the GOAT QB when it's said and done.
True or false, you'd take Dodgers over the field in the NL to get to the World Series.
True or false, LSU will finish with a better record than Mississippi State this year.
True or false, you will watch any of the NBA Finals.
You know the drill. Answer some T or Fs, leave some T or Fs.
As for today, Sept. 29, well, let's review.
Kevin Durant is 32 today. Yeah that's older than I thought too.
It's also national coffee day. How do you take your coffee? Me? Well I am a simple fellow.
On this day in 1954, Willie Mays made the over-the-shoulder catch of Vic Wertz' drive in Game 1 of the World Series.
Rushmore of all-time, most viewed baseball highlights. Go.