Bettors leaning heavily toward home teams making Super Bowl

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry goes through a drill during practice Thursday in Nashville. The Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs with the AFC title on the line Sunday, when the San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game. / AP photo by Mark Humphrey
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry goes through a drill during practice Thursday in Nashville. The Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs with the AFC title on the line Sunday, when the San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game. / AP photo by Mark Humphrey

Pro Picks is surprised.

Consider that Sunday's NFC title game is a matchup of the conference's top two seeds, each with a 14-3 record. The spread favors host San Francisco over the Green Bay Packers by 7 1/2 points.

In the AFC championship matchup, it's the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans (11-7) at No. 2 Kansas City (13-4), which would seem to be more of a mismatch. Yet the spread is also 7 1/2.

There's plenty of history surrounding the potential Super Bowl opponents. Should the Packers and the Chiefs get there, it will be a rematch of the very first AFL-NFL Championship Game - its official title back in 1967.

Should the 49ers get in, they will be seeking their sixth Super Bowl crown. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots lead with that many.

The Titans are the only one of the four clubs not to walk off with a Lombardi Trophy. Indeed, they've only been to the big game in 2000, losing to "The Greatest Show on Turf" in one of the most exciting finishes the Super Bowl has provided.

Overall, it's been 50 years since Kansas City got there and beat the heavily favored Minnesota Vikings.

NFC

These teams don't seem to tire of seeing each other in the postseason. It's the eighth meeting in 25 years, with the Packers up 4-1 - but the four wins were with Brett Favre at quarterback.

Both franchises have a rich history of success.

"I think it helps with the age I'm in, I was born in '79, so I remember the Niners throughout the '80s growing up and I was here with my dad in '94 where they won that Super Bowl,'' 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said, referring to his father, Mike, a former NFL coach. "I think just being around it, I knew exactly how special it was.

"You know, (we've) been a few down years, I think since '12 or whenever it was, but that does happen, too. We knew we had to build this up and get back here, but we knew how good of an organization it was, and when you do have a good organization, usually those tough times don't last. If you can just stay the course and be a little bit patient."

Patience is not a major part of the 49ers' current personality. In fact, the Packers - with their running game built on the work of Aaron Jones - are the more patient team.

They are not, however, the more talented team.

BEST BET: 49ERS, 30-20

AFC

Let's get it said right away: If Derrick Henry keeps destroying defenses the way he has the past three weeks, the Titans are headed to Miami Gardens, Florida, for the Super Bowl. And winning there.

Henry not only will be the focal point for Tennessee's offense, but also for Kansas City's improved defense. Yeah, we know the Chiefs didn't show much on D in the first quarter last week against the Houston, Texans but this is their best unit on that side of the ball since Andy Reid took over as coach in 2013.

That defense must slow down Henry, get the Titans off the field and Patrick Mahomes on it. Kansas City has as dynamic an attack as Baltimore, but it can't make the same sort of mistakes the Ravens did in falling to Tennessee.

"I think they're playing confident, aggressive football,'' Reid said. "I felt that way when we played them, too."

Tennessee beat Kansas City in late November in Nashville.

''They've had this opportunity now to play a few more games since we played them,'' Reid added. ''They were playing good then, they're playing good now.''

Good enough to knock off the Chiefs? Not quite, but it will be tight.

CHIEFS, 27-24

2019 RECORD

Last week: 2-2 against spread, 3-1 straight up.

Season totals: 137-121-5 against spread, 156-105-1 straight up.

Best bet: 12-7 against spread, 15-4 straight up.

Upset special: 8-10 against spread, 8-10 straight up.

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