Morning folks. Great back and forth yesterday. Well-played indeed.
From the "Talks too much" studios, as Coach Wooden always said, you either get better or you get worse - you never stay the same. Let's get better today.
Fab 4 picks
One of the great intangibles in the art of entertainment hunting is emotion.
Emotion of the players. Emotion of home-field advantage. The emotions - good and bad - of the pressure of being in the mix for a championship or having your season's goals dashed the previous week.
Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer stands on the sidelines during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Boston College in Boston, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015. Virginia Tech won 26-10. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer) All of those scenarios play out this week, with a couple of added, out-of-the-ordinary scenarios. In Blacksburg, Va., and in Columbia, Mo., long-time head coaches Frank Beamer and Gary Pinkel are stepping down and Saturday will be the final home games for the coaches of Virginia Tech and Missouri, respectively. (Side note: Now that Beamer is retiring, the longest tenured coaches at one school in college football will be Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and Iowa's Kirk Ferentz.)
How those emotions affect teams and players and fans is unknown. But, it's also an unknown variable for the guys in Escalades setting the lines in Vegas, as well.
That's a rare gift, and one that may alter the line, even if the emotion does not alter the moment.
Our view in matters of the heart, college football edition, is to trust what you know. Trust talent and if you get bested by a lightning flash of fury that is a Hokie in a glass case of emotion, well, so be it. Pay your entertainment charge - plus 10 percent of course - and know you made the prudent play.
And remember, as Jimmy Dugan told us, there's no crying in baseball.
Vandy against anyone under whatever it is. Regular entertainment chasers who frequent these parts know two things: There will be abstract movie quotes mixed in with our picks advice, and we take Vandy and the under and smile all the way to the entertainment collection window. If you are scoring at home - and if you are, good for you - the Commodores and the total have become the surest thing this side of Nick Saban blowing up at the media before Alabama plays an FCS foe. The under in Vandy games this year is 9-0-1. Yes, in the entertainment world, Vandy and the under is like Deshaun Watson being Alabama's quarterback - simply unstoppable. This week, the opponent is Texas A&M and the total is 42.5, but it could be the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the total could 12.5 and we'd lean to the under out of loyalty. Anchors (and scoring) Down, indeed.
Florida-Florida Atlantic under 48. The Gators are not the under lords (nice, right?) that Vandy has been, but it's close. Since week three, the under has hit in six of eight Florida games, and the lone exceptions are Florida scoring an improbable late TD against Tennessee (sorry, Johnny Vols Fans, too soon?) and the shining moment in the careers of erratic quarterbacks Treon and Brandon Harris (no relation) when LSU outslugged Florida. Plus, with Treon Harris struggling, the Gators have been limited offensively in their last three.
North Carolina minus-6 at Virginia Tech. Here's the emotional theory litmus test. Could Virginia Tech come out - cue "Enter Sandman" - and play like inspired warrior poets. Sure they could for longtime coach Frank Beamer. But Virginia Tech simply does not have the horses to run with UNC, which is led by quarterback Marquise Williams, who has almost 2,900 yards of total offense and accounted for 25 touchdowns.
South Alabama plus-3 at Georgia State. We have some simple rules we try to follow regardless of the scenario. We look both ways before crossing. We believe that the future belongs to the folks willing to get their hands dirty. We agree with Oscar Wilde, who said "Some people cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go." (And we always try to be in the former group.) We know that an entertainment line that looks too good to be true, generally is, and anytime we can get points from the GSU Panthers, we consider that highly entertaining.
Les Miles Ole Miss minus-4.5 over LSU. The emotional state of LSU will be telling. Tigers coach Les Miles is reportedly on the hit seat and could be coaching for his job in the last two weeks of the season. How the Tigers respond will speak volumes about how they feel about Coach Grass Chewer. That emotion is too tough to gauge. What's not tough to calculate is that Ole Miss had a bye last week after playing 10 straight weeks, and the Rebels may be as healthy as they have been all year. Plus, the Ole Miss defense has seen the gameplan to frustrating LSU, and that's make anyone but Leonard Fournette beat them.
Navy minus-10 over Tulsa. This seems like a lot of points on the road - and we'd buy the half here to help against a backdoor cover - but Navy's show travels. Well. The Midshipmen are a match-up nightmare, and have been one of the Fab 4 Picks favorite plays. They are 7-2 against the spread this year, and one of those losses was against Notre Dame. Tulsa is never going to be confused for Notre Dame. If you concur on this pick, we'd make the call now - this line figures to grow.
Georgia Tech minus-1 at Miami. Another tough matchup for the home underdog. As for all the indifference above about emotion, well, we'll stick with our approach. This pick is not about emotion (although the Hurricanes already being bowl eligible and without a head coach is a trying scenario) it's about math. According to Vegasinsider.com, this line opened at Miami minus-1, and despite 58 percent of the wagers coming in on the Hurricanes, the line has flipped toward Tech. This screams that Vegas knows something, and when Vegas thinks it knows something, well, it normally does.
Last week against the spread: 4-3 (57.1 percent)
This season against the spread: 42-29 (59.2 percent)
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SEC items of interest
1. LSU's response. Les Miles is under heat. There are whispers that he may be on the outs. (And yes, that's a scary proposition for all coaches everywhere, considering Miles has won 78 percent of his games and has a Natty. Man, if the Tigers run Miles, what does that mean for Mark Richt and a lot of the others who have had very good careers, but they still are not as accomplished as Miles? Wow.) Still, how the Tigers perform in Oxford will be interesting to watch.
Georgia head coach Mark Richt gives a thumbs up to the crowd as he walks off the field after an NCAA college football game against Kentucky, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015, in Athens, Ga. Georgia won 27-3. (AP Photo/John Amis)2. Two best QBs in the SEC. Yep, who figured that would be a description of the Arkansas-Mississippi State matchup. Wow, if Arkansas could figure out how to start the way it finishes, it would be something. Still, the way the Hogs are rolling, and this one could be very good all the way to the end. Big question here is if Mississippi State star wide out De'Runnya Wilson is healthy enough to play.
3. Fighting the cold, emotions. Missouri coach Gary Pinkel will coach his final game in Columbia this weekend, and it will be against the Tennessee Vols, who are looking for their first SEC win over these Tigers. Offensively, Missouri is bad. Defensively, though, it is stout. How Tennessee handles the cold - a big factor for a road team, especially if UT starts slow - and the Tigers' early, emotional punch will be telling.
4. Georgia Southern's super bowl. Almost every player on the Georgia Southern roster likely grew up dreaming of playing in Sanford Stadium in Athens. On Saturday, those Eagles get their chance. Another game that could be over early or could linger - and make the host Bulldogs quite nervous - if the visitor handles the moment early.
5. Can Auburn get bowl eligible? The Tigers are a 33-point favorite over visiting Idaho. Hard to see the surprisingly offensively challenged Tigers getting that many points. Auburn should win, but if the Tigers stumble, buckle up for a loud roar. (And not so quiet murmurs about coach Gus Malzahn's job security.) Granted a win means a trip to Birmingham or Shreveport - a mighty fall for a team many expected to be in the mix to get in the playoff - but that would be better than a fall out of the postseason altogether.
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Future tug of war
OK, the Titans and Jaguars meet tonight in a game only a mother could love. Or a gambler.
Still, we're at least a bit intrigued for a couple of reasons.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey talks to his players at the end of the second day of the Jaguars' three-day NFL football camp at the Blue Health & Wellness Practice Fields, Wednesday, April 18, 2012, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/The Florida Times-Union, Bob Self)First, if Mike Mularkey is going to keep that job, the Titans are going to need to build some momentum.
Second, as crazy as this sounds, the loser of this game will be in the discussion for one of the worst teams in the league and the winner could make a playoff charge against the battered Colts.
Third, and most importantly, each of these teams - division rivals, mind you - believes it has its quarterback of the future.
So let's see what shakes out between Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota. Each was a super high pick. Each has shown moments - and some major miscues with ball security.
And each has a chance to make a big step as the division hierarchy gets reshuffled as the Colts wait for Andrew Luck to return.
It also is interesting that each team in this division other than Houston has a guy they believe in behind center who is under 25. (Side note: If you are the Texans, this has to worry you at least a little, right?)
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This and that
- Is this the best coaching staff in the history of college football? The 1983 Iowa staff under Hayden Fry had Bill Snyder, Kirk Ferentz, Bob Stoops and Barry Alvarez among others.
NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Jeff Gordon awaits the start of the first practice session for Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Va., Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. (AP Photo/Steve Sheppard) - Fox made it official Wednesday, announcing Jeff Gordon will be in the booth for their race coverage, along with Mike Joy and Darrell Waltrip.
- OK, we have done a fair amount of hand-wringing about the place of college basketball in the pantheon of sports viewing. You want a cold slap in the face of how irrelevant regular-season college hoops is for the average viewer? The UK-Duke and Kansas-Michigan State doubleheader which featured three of the top five teams in the country, drew a 1.7 overnight rating; the college football playoff rankings announcement in the middle of the two games on the same network drew a 1.8 ranking.
- Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel won the NL and AL Cy Young awards respectively. Probably as it should be.
- As anyone could have guessed here's Nick Saban's tirade about preparation for Charleston Southern. This was such a given, even if you could bet on things like this, it would have been off the board in Vegas.
- Wow, this was surprising. Yes, The Soup was cancelled. No that's not the surprising part. The surprising part is it was on TV for 22 years. Wow.
- North Dakota changes its nickname to the Fighting Hawks. The runner-up in the online voting to replace "Fighting Sioux" was "Roughriders" for whatever that's worth.
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Today's question
Ted TurnerMailbag? Yes, that's a question and a request.
Couple of birthday wishes: Happy 77th to Ted Turner. And a happy shout-out to Kerri Strug, the former America's sweetheart gymnast. (Want to feel old? Strug is 38 today. Yep. Now get off our lawn and turn that music down.)
OK, this has been a week of anniversaries for memorable - albeit infamous - NFL plays.
Earlier this week was the 30th anniversary of the LT hit that broke Joe Theissman's leg for the entire nation to see. Today is the 37th anniversary of this play in which Herm Edwards ran back a fumble in the Miracle at the Meadowlands. It's the play that made the Victory formation a universal call.
What's the Rushmore of most infamous NFL plays?
Go (and remember the mailbag).