SEC items of interest
Who stays on track UK-UT? The Kentucky Wildcats have been one of the better - and more quiet turnaround - stories in the league over the last month. The Wildcats are a win away from being bowl eligible. Tennessee has a renewed sense of purpose after Florida's loss last week that revitalized the Vols' hopes to get to Atlanta. Vegas put a strange two-touchdown line on this one, which seems mighty high, but remember Vegas is Vegas because of numbers like this. How the Vols defense, which happily welcomes back Cam Sutton this week, handles the Wildcats' wildcat likely will be the difference.
Steve Spurrier visor bowl. Somewhere, the Ol' Ball Coach is sick to his stomach because the two college programs he spent the most time coaching will face off with an over/under of 37.5. You can almost here Spurrier now, popping his visor up on his head, a Coors in one hand and a wry grin on his face: "Man, 37 points? That's a good first half for some of those old Gator teams." And he's right. Which makes this a pretty important game for head coach Jim McElwain, who faces first-year USC coach Will Muschamp, the man McElwain replaced in Gainesville. Here's saying defenses are not the only things that will be tight Saturday in The Swamp.
Deep South's Oldest rivalry. Man this screams trouble for No. 8-ranked Auburn. The Tigers are banged up, with quarterbackS ean White battling shoulder troubles and the unknown status of bruising power back Kam Pettway. White is expected to play; Pettway's status is unknown. And those two cats have been the main reason Auburn has gone from 1-2 with a coach on the hottest of hot seats to 7-2 and getting college football playoff attention. It may have more meaning for Auburn in the grand perspective, but man this feels like a game that Georgia's new staff and young players can build a season of positivity out of with a victory.
Alabama being Alabama. Yes, there are back-up quarterbacks playing in College Station. And yes, Vandy linebacker Zach Cunningham will be doing Zach Cunningham things at Missouri, but as long as Alabama is playing, the Tide have become must-watch TV, especially defensively. This bunch is so fast and so aggressive and so deep that the waves are impressive in their relentlessness. Mississippi State had a great win last week over Texas A&M when quarterback Nick Fitzgerald became only the third QB is SEC history to pass for more than 200 yards and run for more than 175. The other - Johnny Manziel and Cam Newton - eventually became Heisman winners and notched wins over Alabama. Here's believing the Fitzgerald comparisons end with the first stat.
After going without a catch until the fourth game of the season, Georgia junior Javon Wims has led the Bulldogs in their last three contests with 132 receiving yards.Fab 4 picks
We went 4-1 against the number last week. It could have been a lot better. In fact, Vegas took one on the chin last Saturday, with favorites hitting better than 60 percent of the college plays last week.
But, if beggars can't be choosers, entertainment hunters with a plus-55 percent number success rate can't be complainers. Normally.
Still, you have to make as much hay as possible when the hot streaks happen. You have to realize your next tough weekend could be right around the corner.
This week feels like that seedy corner. We are deep in the season. Injuries and rest play a much bigger factor, meaning research matters even more.
And Vegas has enough material to stretch the levels of believability. There's an over/under as low as 37.5 (Florida-South Carolina) and as high as 89.5 (Texas Tech-Oklahoma State). There's a 1-8 team laying 10 on the road when Iowa State visits Kansas, which may be the worst team in all of the FBS.
So, now, more than ever, we need to look at what we know and what hope to know. That's made tougher by trying to get a read on what the bodies and minds of 18-23-year-old college kids are thinking and feeling. It's also made tougher by Vegas noticing the same trends like USC and Oregon playing much better in the last few weeks and Wisconsin games playing supremely low totals. (We left all those picks on the cutting room floor this week, so we'll see.)
Alas. Let's roll the dice, as they say, and see what we have. (All lines are from Vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning.)
Vandy plus-3.5 over Missouri and under the 54.5. We're going with a rare double play in this one, because a) Missouri is the worst team in the league and the most listless and b) the under is, well, it's Vanderbilt and the under is almost always the play when Vandy plays. As for the game, we think the wrong team is favored here, so we are sticking to our general rule of never taking an underdog unless you believe it can win the game outright. Unless...
North Texas plus-29 against Western Kentucky. We believe in rest and flow and consistency as much as anything this side of Nick Saban-level talent when it comes to hunting entertaining picks. That caveat points us to an improving North Texas team - they have won four games this year under first-year coach Seth Littrell after winning five in the previous two years combined - catching more than four touchdowns against a Western Kentucky bunch that is playing its 11th game in 11 weeks.
Georgia plus-10 over Auburn. We'd buy the half here just for peace of mind, but we think this is a great price for a Georgia team that offensively gets more comfortable by the week with freshman quarterback Jacob Eason, who is going to be a star. In fact, if you can find Georgia on a money line at +320 to win outright, that's a good price, too. This game is always hard-fought, and the unknown status of bullish Auburn running back Kamryn Pettway makes Georgia even more likable.
MTSU-Marshall under the 61. We mentioned the quarterback injuries that are worth noting, and here's a team that will be greatly affected by one. MTSU record-setting quarterback Brett Stockstill - who is the head coach's son - was hurt last week against UTSA and will miss the rest of the season. How big a difference does Stockstill make on the field? Well, MTSU was a 19.5-favorite going into that game. Stockstill broke his collar bone early in the second quarter and the Blue Raiders lost 45-25. That's a 40-point swing in the entertainment world. Now take that show on the road against a bad Marshall team which has not scored more than 28 points since week two and still has a nice home-field crowd and this one screams 21-13.
South Carolina plus-11.5 over Florida. The ever-shrinking total it was down to 37 this morning is a little too scary since each of these teams could score on defense. And while there are some quarterback changes/injuries around the league that have hurt their respective teams, South Carolina appears to have found its answer. Maybe Florida bounces back in a big way after getting humiliated at Arkansas, but the truth of it is, this Gators offense should not be laying double digits to anyone not named Missouri in the SEC.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread (80 percent)
This season: 34-25 against the spread (57.6 percent)
UTC forward Tre' McLean shoots into UNCG guard Demetrius Troy during the Mocs' home basketball game against UNC Greensboro at McKenzie Arena on Saturday, Feb. 20, 2016, in Chattanooga, Tenn.College hoops
Wow, it's about that time.
We'll admit it (and we're sure Chas will hold us to it) that we are a little more excited for college basketball this year more than in recent years past.
That has to do with the following items worth discussing:
We believe UTC is going to be a legit mid-major power. (In fact, we'd be surprised if the Mocs lost Friday at UTK.) Matt McCall's second season in Chattanooga has the makings to even better than last year's SoCon champs and NCAA tournament participant. (And after last year's hosing in the bracket, maybe the committee won't line them up with the Big Ten champ as the best 5 seed in a decade as a dance partner. Alas.)
We believe between Duke and Kentucky, there's a real chance that one of those supremely talented teams - even with supremely difficult schedules - will start fast and generate some of the whatever-and-0 talk. We think that's exciting and good for the game because everyone wants to see history, and it's been 40 years since Indiana went undefeated.
We believe the refocusing on the rules - specifically walks and the physicality on rebounds and post play - will benefit the sport. Know this: A lot of the hard-core college hoops fans we know (Hi, Dad) have started watching more and more of the women's game because they play the game by the rules they understand and appreciate. Traveling is out of control and the muggings that can happen in the middle are maddening. It may mean for some disjointed play early, but the game and the players will adjust. They always do.
We believe the number of talented freshmen who contribute right out of the gate this year will surprise even the diehard hoops fans. There's a chance that five of the top 10 players in the country will be freshmen friends, and while there may not be one as identifiable as Ben Simmons was at LSU, you are going to be watching a game in the coming weeks and say, "Man, that kid can really play. What? He's a freshman?"
We believe, that while the numbers of newcomers will be stout, the familiarity of some of the faces in college hoops will benefit some of the spotlight games this year. Duke has Grayson Allen, who has a chance to be rank in the JJ Reddick stratosphere of players opposing fans love to hate. Wisconsin's talented Nigel Hayes has next level skills and has already stepped forward on a couple of off-the-court issues.
This could be fun. (We have a mailbag question about college hoops predictions, so we'll drop more specifics tomorrow. Deal? Deal.)
This and that
- OK, we'll ask: Can you come up with an answer to the following sports fill in the blank question, what would it be? "I'd rather watch tonight's Browns-Ravens NFL game than ___________." Go.
- Man, the old stopping grounds of Smyrna, Ga., is part of Cobb County's high school sports comeuppance in the last decade or so. Cobb County has for a long time been the best place in the country for high school baseball talent. The high school football talent in Cobb and the entire metro-Atlanta area has surpassed Miami in terms of SEC- and NFL-level prospects and players. Now this ranking that has two Cobb County boys' high school basketball teams - Wheeler and Pebblebrook - ranked among the top 15 in the country.
- As for Chattanooga's best, well, according to this Max Preps ranking of the best independent high school teams - i.e. teams like Oak Hill and the IMG Academy - Hamilton Heights here in Chattanooga is No. 5 nationally.
- We meant to include this yesterday in the election round-up, but man, did you see the story that Colin Kaepernick didn't vote? Wow, make a grandstanding protest and then not use your lawful voice. Man that's an awful example to a trouble collection of folks who look up to Kaepernick and for us, certainly takes some of the veracity out of his protest to begin with.
- Speaking of the election, Nick Saban said he was unaware that Tuesday was voting day. And here's saying most of us believed that, right? Also, if Saban had been on the ballot, who wins? (Granted he would have been right there with James Madison for the shortest U.S. President. Madison was 5-foot-4. But Saban could have been a contender.)
Today's question
Lots of questions sprinkled in folks.
There's also the matter of the mailbag. (For the growing numbers of new readers around these parts, I answer any question you want to throw my way in Friday's 5-at-10, so fire away.)
As for a Rushmore, well, let's go here: On this day in 1990, "Home Alone" premiered. Let's do the Rushmore of best individual child acting performances in a single movie.
Go.