This week's picks embrace history.
There are a couple of games out there involving teams playing their first games against opponents that have already played this season. That's a preferable scenario for our purposes, and credence is given to teams with a game under their belts.
Let's roll, and remember - these are for your entertainment only.
Indiana minus-3 over Virginia. The Hoosiers appear legit on offense. They threw it for more than 400 yards against THE Ohio State last week. Virginia does not have anywhere close to the defensive athletes THE Ohio State does. Buy the half as insurance, but there are a couple of teams that could be frequent visitors around these picks, and the Hoosiers could be among them.
Fresno State plus-43.5 over Alabama. Alabama has played Power Five conference foes in openers six times under coach Nick Saban. They won and covered each time. In those six seasons, Alabama has played an opponent from outside the Power Five the next game, won all six and failed to cover the spread in all six. Does Fresno State win? Of course not. But one trash touchdown would be huge, and in truth, even if the Tide pitches a shutout, I can see Saban taking the air out of it and winning 38-0.
Auburn-Clemson under 54. This is the first start of this magnitude for each quarterback. That matters. This is a matchup that will feature two terrific defensive front sevens. That matters. It will be loud, with monster stakes, because it will have a huge impact on the national perception of the Atlantic Coast Conference and the chase for the national championship. Southeastern Conference teams beat Florida State, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State in the opening week. We're not sure the SEC Tigers have enough - especially with running back Kerryon Johnson's status unknown - to pull the road upset in this one, but barring overtime, this will be a game played in the 20s. Or lower. And that screams under.
Oklahoma State minus-28 over South Alabama. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has loved hammering nonconference foes. The beatings will go on tonight.
Boston College-Wake Forest under 46. Not unlike trusting the Alabama trend in the second game, there's a lot of history to like in this pick. These teams have played every year as conference foes, and the average combined points since 2009 is 33 and change. The last time it went over this total was 2009, and that took overtime to do it.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread.
Season: 4-1 against the spread.
SEC ITEMS OF INTEREST
All things considered, the SEC fared quite well in openers, going 12-2. But the two losses - Florida to Michigan; Texas A&M to UCLA - and a narrow escape for Tennessee got a ton of attention.
First down. Tigers tussle. Auburn goes to Clemson in what is the second-biggest game of the weekend. Yes, Ohio State-Oklahoma is bigger because each is ranked in the top five. But the Tigers-Tigers tango in Clemson is, according to the computer gurus, the toughest test the hosts will face in the regular season. (Florida State's starting quarterback having a season-ending injury in the opener elevated this game's status.) So there you go: A springboard for either, and what could be the final shot to deny last season's national champs a perfect regular season.
Second down. Welcome to the party, young gun. Georgia freshman Jake Fromm will make his first start under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus at Notre Dame. Filling in for Jacob Eason, who hurt his knee early against Appalachian State and will be out indefinitely, Fromm threw for 143 yards last week. He made some plays and was not overwhelmed by the moment. But that moment was at home. This is at Notre Dame in prime time and on national TV. How he handles the moment will determine the outcome and could very well determine whether he's a fill-in or full-timer.
Third down. Arkansas welcomes TCU to Fayetteville this weekend. Yes, the teams who opened against some lesser foes are playing the bigger games of week two. Arkansas fits into that category. The Razorbacks beat TCU in two overtimes last year, and let's be honest - the state of Texas had a brutal opening weekend. The Big 12 has two big games this week in terms of national perception: Oklahoma-Ohio State and this one. Look out for the Horned Frogs. This has that "coach Gary Patterson does something impressive" feel.
Fourth down. Bounce-back time. The opening week was bonkers, people. Bonkers. Now come some cupcakes to gobble and concerns to gauge. The jeers in College Station are loud. The offensive confusion in Gainesville is troubling. The Turnover Trash Can in Knoxville is real. The linebacker depth in Tuscaloosa is a concern. The defense in Nashville is tough. The receiving talent in Oxford is impressive. The questions in Lexington are still there. Addressing or maximizing the details are why these college coaches are paid outrageous sums of money.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.