Baseball 102
We'll start this morning's chat with a puzzled look at the New York Yankees.
We all wondered about the possibilities of the Yankees potential at the plate before the season.
Aaron Judge. Giancarlo Stanton. Didi Gregorious. Gary Sanchez. The assembly of power was eye-popping.
And despite an avalanche of injuries - the Yankees have used 42 players this year and Judge, Stanton and Gregorious as well as staff ace Luis Severino missed significant time - the line-up has reached every expectation.
With back-to-back homers to start the game and two more solo shots to comprise all of the runs in last night's 4-3 win, the Yankees continued their number-crunching ways. Consider this:
* The Yankees, with all those injuries, are 9-1 in their last 10 and 51-28 heading toward the halfway mark of the season;
* The Yankees have hit 132 homers this season, a total that is good enough for fourth in baseball. They have now homered in 28 consecutive games, a new MLB record;
* During the streak, the Yankees have hit 51 total homers and are 17-11 in that span. Ironically enough the streak started a month ago today in an extra-inning loss to Kansas City.
But the Yankees' daily deliveries - who have the third-best record in baseball behind the Dodgers and the Twins - are part of a much larger trend in the game.
We all know the philosophy of the game has become go big fly and trot home, but the physics of the game have changed too.
And this is not about player health, launch angle or the rest.
According to Dr. Meredith Wills, a sports data scientist who also is an astrophysicist, the monster mashing numbers are because of notable statistical differences in the baseball.
Lower seams - which decrease spin on breaking pitches and drag on balls that are hit - and smoother leather is noticeable according to Wills' research, which she published here on The Athletic.
The results are just as telling: The league is on pace to hit more than 6,600 homers, which would be 1,000 more than last year and more than 500 of the single season record of 6,105 in 2017. More than a third of the teams in the league are on pace to set franchise records for homers and 21 players are on pace to hit 40-or-more this season.
It's science friends.
A freshman ace
Vanderbilt has been on the brink a couple of times this postseason.
There was the 1-0 hole in the Super Regional, and Vandy handed the ball to freshman Kumar Rocker. He delivered a no-hitter with 19 Ks.
There was the 1-0 hole in the championship series of the College World Series on Tuesday night, and again Vandy handed the ball to Rocker.
And again, he delivered. Big time.
The hard-throwing, 6-foot-4, 255-pound son of former Auburn All-American defensive lineman and UT assistant coach Tracy Rocker, was lights out.
He got 11 Ks of the 19 outs he recorded, threw 10 strikes in his first 11 pitches and allowed just three hits as Vandy forced a winner-take-all game tonight.
How staggering was Rocker out of the gate?
Dude fanned five of the first six hitters he faced and Michigan failed to score in the first inning for the first time in its magical run in Omaha.
And how about these numbers for Rocker of late. In his last 11 starts, Rocker is 10-1 and he has been even better - 4-0 with an 0.96 ERA with 44 Ks and five walks in 28 innings - in the NCAA postseason.
To quote Larry Munson "My God! A freshman."
Let the games begin
Yes, we all are counting the days - Steve may actually be counting the hours - until football season gets here.
It's part of the late-June-becomes-July calendar. Heck, we all know that SEC media days are right around the corner.
Well, the gambling games actually will begin next week in the state of Tennessee when online betting becomes legalized.
To that end, here's FanDuel's list of college football over/under win totals. And yes, I have a few thoughts.
The highest expected win total? Yep, Clemson at 11.5. Georgia and Alabama each are listed at 11 wins. Remember the lines are set trying to a) get equal amounts bet on each side and b) based on regular-season win totals. (For example, if you bet Clemson to go over, they will have to go 12-0. Anything else will be under, and no the ACC title game/blood bath does not count.
Here are the five numbers that jumped out at me that maybe I'll wet my beak on next week, you know, when we Tennesseans can, you know, bet on sports and such.
Army over 8.5. Book this. BOOK IT!. Sorry for shouting but sweet buckets that FanDuel number has to be a mistake. The tricky Army offense - which returns 80 percent of its production from a dynamite against a doable schedule that wait for it has 13 games. Yes, 13 games. Now know this: Other than a week two trip to Michigan, Army should be favored in every game of a schedule that had a combined record of 53-107 in 2018.
Kentucky over 6. Do I think Chas' Cats are going to duplicate the magical run that was 2018? No. But a completely sweepable non-conference schedule of Toledo, Eastern Kentucky, UT-Martin and Louisville means if UK drops games against Florida and Georgia - teams likely to be preseason top-15 in the polls - You have to feel pretty good about UK finding three wins among games with Arkansas, Vandy, Tennessee, South Carolina, a Mississippi State looking to replace a ton and Missouri.
Speaking of that, Mississippi State under 8.5. The guts of last year's defense - the first under Joe Moorhead - are headed to Sundays. The heart of last year's team - quarterback Nick Fitzgerald - is out of eligibility. And friends, life in the SEC West is a difficult route to break-in a new dude.
Northwestern under 6.5 Does anyone have a tougher start to the season than the Wildcats, who, like Mississippi State, have to replace a slew of starters and a super-experienced and record-setting quarterback. Northwestern starts at Stanford in a smart-pants bowl, off week, vs. UNLV, vs. Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska, vs. THE Ohio State. Wow.
Alabama over 11. Why? Because it's Ala-Bleepin'-Bama people. There have been as many as nine different Alabama players listed on mock drafts for next year's first round. Yes, nine. At worst, this one pushes right? Do you really season Nick Saban losing two games? Ever?
This and that
- Big win for the Braves last night for a couple of reasons. One, after a sloppy Monday loss in Chicago, bouncing back is always important. Two, the Braves have now secured the season series against the Cubs, which means if they finished tied at the end of the season, Atlanta would get the home-field edge.
- Here's some news from TFP all-around ace David Paschall, who informs us that Finley Stadium will get new carpet next December. The replacement turf will come at no cost to Finley, so the got that going for them, which is nice.
- Megan Rapinoe clearly has no intention to visit the White House if the US women's national team wins the World Cup . She has made disdain for Donald Trump quite clear. Here's the story about Rapinoe, who scored both of the goals in Monday's 2-1 win over Spain, and her NSFW language of "(Bleep) the White House." So there's that.
- Here's an interesting list of the high schools that have produced four or more NBA first-round picks since 1990. Not surprisingly, Oak Hill leads the way with 15 first-rounders.
Today's questions
Which way Wednesday starts this way:
Would you go over or under on Clemson at 11.5 and Alabama at 11?
If you had to have one baseball win, which big-game pitcher are you handing the ball to?
As for today, June 26, let's review.
Ariana Grande is 26 today.
It's national coconut day. That's a foe for me. National chocolate pudding day, too. That one is friend, friends.
Derek Jeter is 45 today. Spy did you send him a card?
Rushmore of best MLB players of the last quarter century. Go.